According to a new study, by 2060, pivots from fossil fuels to clean energy technologies will improve energy security and reduce trade risks in most countries.
Lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper and rare earth elements are competing with countries and businesses to ensure the supply of energy systems that do not add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
Unlike fossil fuels, the natural reserves of these materials are most concentrated in the southern part of the world, shuffling the geopolitics of energy and world trade.
“In most countries with future net-zero emission systems, trading a decrease in dependence on imported fossil fuels and an increase in dependence on these new materials is actually a victory for energy security,” explained Steve Davis, a senior author of the study and professor of Earth Systems Science at the School of Sustainability at Stanford Doler.
The impact of decarbonization on oil-rich countries
Even in the United States, which has some of the world’s largest fossil fuel reserves but only a few key mineral deposits, decarbonization can increase energy security, particularly when countries are growing new trading partners, researchers have found.
Since 2020, the US has exported more crude and petroleum products than it imports, but imports millions of barrels daily, mainly from Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Colombia.
“Generating electricity with solar and wind requires more imports than the US uses abundant gas and coal resources, but as transportation becomes electrified, a decrease in dependence on foreign oil will be a major advantage,” Davis said.
Oil-rich countries, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, are minorities in countries where energy security in net-zero scenarios is declining despite expanding trade networks.
Levels of change in energy security in countries
To reach their conclusion, scientists systematically analyzed the extent of potential new vulnerabilities in countries under decarbonization compared to those associated with continued dependence on fossil fuels.
As a first step, Jinchen, a postdoctoral scholar at Davis’ Sustainable Solutions Lab at Stanford, has built a database of countries with one of the 16 materials important for oil, gas, coal, uranium, biofuels, and clean energy technologies with trade flows between these countries.
Researchers calculated how many of these resources would be needed to meet energy needs in 1,092 countries in 1,092 countries to reach net zero carbon emissions worldwide by 2060.
For thousands of combinations of trade relations and resource needs, the team estimated the level of risk in the country’s transportation and electricity sectors, as well as the overall energy system.
They quantified these risks using a new “trade risk index” based on the availability of domestic reserves, the percentage of demand for a particular fuel or material met by imports, the economic value of imports, and the market concentration measure that is widely used to quantify energy security.
Countries benefit from a major reduction in fossil fuel trust
Researchers found that trade-related risks to energy security decrease by an average of 19% in net zero scenarios when all countries maintain their current networks.
As countries expand their networks and expand trade with all resource owners, trade risks on average is half.
Reduce the need for imported virgin materials – Another way for mineral-scarce countries to minimize trade risks while eliminating fossil fuels by making technology lasting, increasing recycling, and developing material-intensive designs.
The study shows that trade risks decrease on average by 17% and more than 50% in the US, along with four times the today’s small recycling rates of important minerals such as lithium, nickel and indium.
They also discovered a US energy mix consisting of about 70-75% renewable energy, such as solar, wind and biomass. 15-20% fossil fuel; 10% nuclear power also minimizes the country’s trade risk across all modelled scenarios to reach net zero by 2060, while other mixes may offer benefits such as reduced costs and lower air pollution.
However, there are limitations to the security benefits of diversification. The findings of the study show that maintaining fossil fuels in a mix generally drags the nation’s energy security.
“Ultimately, most countries encourage trade risks to reduce the risk of net zero scenarios,” the author concludes, “and the biggest improvements often occur in countries that most dramatically reduce their dependence on fossil fuels.”
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