Two major reforms could shape the outcome of the race as Bolivia suddenly headed towards the August 17th presidential election.
On Wednesday, incumbent President Lewis Ark announced he would waive his re-election bid after a five-year term defined by the turmoil.
“Today, I will firmly inform the people of Bolivia of my decision to refuse to run for reelection of the president in the elections next August,” he wrote on social media.
“I do so with the clearest belief that I am not a factor in dividing the popularity poll. It far less promotes the creation of fascist right-wing projects that seek to destroy multiple nations.”
That same day, the Bolivian Constitutional Court also ruled that Arce’s former political leader, current rival Evo Morales, could run for another term as president, and failed to support the two-term restrictions.
However, Morales, the leftist who previously served three terms and tried to assert a fourth, remained rebellious on social media afterwards.
“Only people can ask me to refuse to run,” Morales wrote. “We will follow the people’s mission to save Bolivia once more.”
Two announcements on Wednesday added even more uncertainty to the already turbulent presidential election.
The decline of Arce
Since the 2020 election, ARCE has led Bolivia, continuing a political crisis in which Morales fled the country and a right-wing president temporarily replaced him.
However, Arce’s tenure is similarly plagued by turbulence as relations with Morales were destroyed and the government’s popularity fell apart.
Both men are associated with a leftist political party known as the Socialist Movement (MAS), discovered by Morales. Since its founding 30 years ago, the group has become one of the most prominent forces in Bolivian politics.
Still, towards the August election, Arce saw his poll count drop. Bolivian inflation over the past year has swelled to its highest level in a decade, and the value of the currency has plummeted.
The country’s central banks have emerged where the reserves of coins are low and the value of Bolivian currency is half the official exchange rate. And if the country was once an exporter of natural gas, it now relies on imports to deal with the energy shortage.
Experts say some of these issues are ahead of Arce’s term of office, but people’s sentiment is still opposed to his administration. It has been speculated that Bolivia could be kept for political change this year in election year.
Arce himself had to deal with the rising forces of Bolivian right-wing movement. For example, in 2022, his government’s decision to delay the country’s census caused fatal protests in areas like Santa Cruz.
That population growth was expected to lead to more government funding and increase the number of legislative seats potentially allocated to the sector.
Arce also faced opposition from within his own alliance, especially from his former boss, Morales. He previously served as Minister of Economics and Finance under Morales.
The division between the two leaders was translated into a division of MAS membership, identifying Morales’ loyalists and others as supporting Earth.
That split came to mind in June 2024 when Juan Jose Zuniga, Arce’s hand-picked army general, led a failed coup against him. Zuniga publicly condemned Arce for poverty in Bolivia and mismanagement in the government.
Morales captured popular frustrations to advance his own ambitions to seek a fourth term as president. After the coup, he launched a protest march against his previous political allies and attempted to set up an ultimatum to force change.
After dropping out of the 2025 presidential election on Wednesday, Arce called for “the widest unity” in Bolivian leftist political movement. He said the show of strength behind a single candidate is necessary to “defeat the Bolivian marauders.”
“Only the unified struggle of the people guarantees the best future for Bolivia. Our votes are combined against the threat of rights and fascism,” he wrote on social media.
Morales continues to fight terms of office restrictions
However, there remains a wildcard to the left of the Bolivian political spectrum: Morales himself.
Though considered Bolivia’s first indigenous president, Morales remains a relatively popular figure, the recent scandal has dented his widespread appeal.
Morales, first elected president in 2005, was re-elected twice. But his attempt to take office in the 2019 election and subsequent political crisis, when Morales resigned and fled, amid accusations that his victory was the result of election fraud.
Morales has long been sought a fourth term as president. In 2016, a referendum was held among Bolivian voters. Still, Morales appealed to the Bolivian Constitutional Court, allowing him to seek a fourth term in 2019.
It led to accusations that Morales had taken over anti-democratic power and overturned the will of voters.
However, the court went back to that precedent and reversed the decision in 2023 four years later. He then backed that decision on terms multiple times, and most recently on Wednesday he effectively banned Morales from upcoming August races.
Separately, last October, Morales faced legal rape charges, allegedly fathering a 15-year-old girl and child while she was with the president. Morales denied the misconduct and attempted to avoid a warrant issued for his arrest.
Media reports say he is drilling holes in rural supporters in Cochabamba, northern Bolivia.
Still, in February, Morales announced his bid for reelection. And on Wednesday he condemned the Constitutional Court’s latest ruling as a violation of his human rights, including Bolivian restrictions on two terms. He also framed it as part of a broader pattern of foreign interference.
“It’s a political and partisan ruling to follow the orders of the US Empire, the orders of the people’s eternal enemy,” he wrote on social media.
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