Nina Granqvist, a CNRS Research Fellow at the University of Toulouse, and Anthophiberbe, of the Arthogh University School of Business and Anthophiberbe, explores how, despite growing global investment and excitement, the commercial adoption of quantum computing remains limited as companies tackle technical complexity, market uncertainty and lack of clear, short-term application.
Quantum computing is widely regarded as one of the most promising emerging technologies of our time. This optimism has been reflected in the surge in public and private investment in the sector over the past few years.
Many countries and regions provide significant funding to accelerate research and innovation. For example, the European Union invests around $7.2 billion, the US about $3.7 billion, and the Chinese up to $25 billion in government spending (Global Quantum Intelligence, 2023). Additionally, quantum startups’ venture capital funding averaged around $2 billion per year throughout the 2020s.
But despite this momentum, most potential private users, especially those who may one day incorporate quantum computing into their operations, are cautious. Their involvement tends to be limited to small experiments and partnerships, and this caution is often required. Before quantum computing can offer commercial promises, there are still some open scientific questions and technical hurdles to overcome.
With support from the Finland Research Council since 2019, our research team is studying the evolving landscape of quantum computing. Through our work, we have identified several barriers that are currently delaying wider adoption, ranging from technology complexity to market uncertainty.
Who is investigating the possibilities of quantum computers?
Quantum computing is said to be committed to solving certain types of problems that are out of reach of classical computers, including, for example, simulations of specific chemical reactions. Some companies, particularly those in the computing-intensive industry, have begun investing in quantum computing by forming partnerships with hardware manufacturers or quantum software startups. These collaborations are typically aimed at exploring ways in which quantum computing ultimately improves parts of the value chain.
In some cases, companies will support academic research or launch their own internal R&D projects. However, such deep engagement is rare because important financial commitments are required when the value of this technology is still speculative. The real-worldly proven applications of quantum computing have yet to be realized, and it is still unclear when they will emerge or what form they will ultimately take.
Some early adopters may be financial institutions seeking to project technology leadership, where quantum computing can challenge and transform capabilities, and companies in the pharmaceutical and chemical sectors where experts tend to be familiar with quantum science baselines.
Why are so many others holding back?
At the same time, many companies have not begun exploring quantum computing despite being seen by their advocates as future users. For these organizations, the landscape is not only unfamiliar, but also deeply confused.
Part of the challenge is the ambiguity of the term “quantum computing” itself. It is used to describe a variety of technologies with a variety of functions and maturation levels, from general purpose quantum computers to quantum anneals. Some reports claim breakthroughs have already occurred, such as “quantum advantage” and “quantum advantage,” while others say that the actual application is still decades away. As a result, there’s a mix of hype and uncertainty, so many potential users don’t know where or whether to place a bet.
Besides this confusion, the technical complexity of the hardware. Quantum computers can be constructed using very different physical systems, such as superconducting circuits, trap ions, or photons. Each approach is drawn from its own scientific tradition, and it is far from easy to understand and compare them.
To navigate this complex terrain, companies will likely need to hire an in-house quantum expert. However, such talent is becoming increasingly scarce and expensive, driven by intense demand and limited supply. Justifying these adoption can be difficult even if commercial applications do not exist yet, and the future of the technology remains extremely uncertain.
Which industries lead adoption?
This is one of the most frequently asked questions and one of the hardest questions to answer definitively. In fact, there are several paradoxes that complicate predictions.
On the one hand, industries already leading high-performance computing like pharmaceuticals and aerospace seem like obvious early adopters. Companies in these industries have well-defined computational needs and investment resources. However, in these sectors, quantum computers face tough competition from decades of optimized classic computing systems. Because of well-defined needs, the target is clear but far away.
Meanwhile, sectors that are less familiar with the use of high-performance computing, such as logistics, construction, and manufacturing, could benefit more quickly from quantum improvements. However, these industries have little definition of problems to solve, and the internal ability to explore quantum solutions may be limited. Here, the target is ambiguous, but closer.
In short, the industries most likely to adopt quantum computing early may not have the most advanced systems of today, but ones that can identify meaningful use cases and be willing to experiment with.
About the author
Nina Granqvist is a professor of business administration at the Aalto University Business School in Finland. Her research focuses on how new industries and markets emerge and develop, including how technology moves from margins to mainstream.
Anthophye Barbet is a CNRS Research Fellow at the University of Toulouse, France. She studies the social dynamics that operate in emerging high-tech markets. She was a former postdoctoral researcher at Aalto University, where she learned about the emergence of the quantum computing industry.
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