Rebecca Emmerton, a climate scientist at Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S), discusses the results of a recently published report on European Climate Conditions (ESOTC) and its impact on the European climate environment.
As climate change accelerates, understanding the impacts of a region has become more urgent than ever. In Europe, rising temperatures, extreme weather and changing climate patterns are changing ecosystems, economies and everyday life. Each year, the ESOTC report provides a comprehensive assessment of these changes, combining vast amounts of observational data with scientific expertise. The report, produced by C3S and the World Weather Organization (WMO), is an important resource for policymakers, researchers, and the public.
We spoke to C3S’ Rebecca Emerton to gain insight into the latest version of ESOTC and the importance of the findings on the future of European climate.
Can you explain how ESOTC data is collected? Has there been any changes this year compared to the previous year?
The ESOTC report uses approximately 40 datasets in the 2024 edition. These datasets are collected in a variety of ways, including weather stations, ships, ocean buoys, and aircraft. Some are used directly, while others feed into creating additional datasets. It also relies heavily on satellite data and reanalysis datasets. REANALYSIS combines observed and satellite data with computer models to fill gaps that do not observe and provide consistent global coverage.
We work with around 100 scientists from Europe and around the world. Each expert analyzes specialized datasets and shares their findings. Together, write different sections of the report based on these analyses.
For those that have changed since last year, we will consistently review with our expert network whether new datasets should be included and whether new topics guarantee coverage. For example, this year we added a full chapter on the lake. This is only briefly covered in a previous report. Given the focus on heat, we also introduced a new variable: tropical nights (sitting overnight high temperatures). This adds insight into how fever affects health.
But one of the biggest changes this year was how the content was presented. We focused on important messages, highlighted the most interesting charts, and worked hard to streamline the report and make it more concise and impactful. We also introduced a new graphic gallery with over 120 charts to make data more accessible and user-friendly.
One of the outstanding standouts of the year is that Europe was the fastest continent and the hottest year on record. Why is Europe particularly vulnerable?
I’ve noticed that I use the term “vulnerable.” This includes several factors, including exposure to risk and the ability to adapt and mitigate them. However, if we focus on why Europe warms faster than other continents, we see that there are several factors.
For one, parts of Europe have spread to the Arctic Circle. This is the fastest region in the world. Arctic warming affects the overall warming rates of Europe. It also includes changes in atmospheric circulation, which contributes to the more frequent and intense summer heat waves, further amplifying the trend of global warming.
Another factor we highlight is the reduction in aerosol emissions across Europe since the 1980s. Aerosols tend to cool the atmosphere by reflecting sunlight, so their decline also contributes to an increase in global warming.
How does 2024 compare to past years in terms of climate trends? Do you see a steady increase or a more dramatic acceleration?
Globally, the average temperature over the five years is currently about 1.3-1.4°C than baseline in the second half of the 19th century. However, the rise was not entirely linear. For example, between 2003 and 2012, the changes were relatively modest. However, since 2015, global average temperatures have risen much more rapidly.
Looking at the last 30 years, the average warming per decade is higher than it would have been back in 1980. A similar pattern is seen in Europe where the average temperature over the past five years is about 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels, about one degree above the global average. Again, this suggests an accelerated trend in global warming, especially over the recent decades.
As for 2024, it is in close agreement with these long-term trends. It was the warmest year on record, with many heat stress days, considerable glacial melts and extensive flooding. All of this is in line with what you expect when the climate continues to change. One of the rare features of the year was the strong East-West contrast in the weather across Europe, which really stood out in the report.
The contrast between the east and west was very impressive. What does it mean for sectors such as agriculture and energy supply? What drives this contrast?
It’s a fascinating question, and a question we’re still exploring. This east-west disparity was somewhat unexpected as climate forecasts typically provide a detailed explanation of North-South contrast in Europe. It was driven primarily by the atmospheric circulation patterns last year.
From an influence standpoint, it really depends on where you were in Europe. Eastern Europe experienced warmer and arid than average conditions, leading to drought in some regions, affecting agriculture and water supply. In particular, southeastern Europe saw extreme heat and one of the longest heat waves on record, resulting in extensive heat stress.
Meanwhile, Western Europe may not have felt it was the warmest year, but it has seen a significant increase in above-average temperatures and rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding. Therefore, although the types of influences were varied, they were quite extensive across the board.
Will this unusual East-West pattern be monitored in future reports?
absolutely. In addition to its annual report, C3S also publishes monthly climate news covering both Europe and the glove. These updates allow us to track these continuous patterns and assess whether they persist.
And yes, unfortunately, many of these monthly bulletins report that new records are broken each month. I hope that’s not the case anymore. However, up until then, we will continue to monitor and include new patterns in next year’s report.
The report said about 400,000 people were affected by the storm and floods. What does this say about European infrastructure and preparation?
That’s right – preliminary data from the International Disaster Database estimates that around 400,000 people were affected by storms and floods last year.
This report draws on important findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This highlights that Europe is one of the regions facing the highest and predicted increase in flood risk. This year there was a special section on climate policy and infrastructure resilience. This specifically considered the extremes of the European construction environment.
Although improvements have been made in cities in particular, the European Environment Agency’s latest climate risk assessment shows that flood risk could reach critical or catastrophic levels later this century in high emission scenarios. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable due to increased surface runoff during severe storms. Therefore, more actions are urgently needed to adapt the infrastructure to meet these challenges.
What about heat stress and its effects on health? Can our healthcare system handle it?
That’s a real concern. It is also something I focus on in my own research. In the UK, where I’m based, I’ve already seen media reports that hospitals are struggling during Heatwaves.
As temperatures rise and heat waves become more frequent and more intense, health effects increase unless adapted. If you don’t plan this through urban design, early warning systems, or strengthening healthcare infrastructure, the burden on services like the NHS can be overwhelming.
You cannot directly comment on how the government is responding. However, our role is to provide the data as up-to-date and accurate as possible so that policymakers can make informed decisions. We hope that the evidence we provide will help you better plan and prepare.
The report also highlighted record glacier losses. How close are we to irreversible damage, and what does this mean for the sea level and ecosystems?
I’m not a glacier specialist, but the trend is clear. The glacier is melting and will not regain its ice. All glacial regions in Europe lost ice last year. Central Europe is one of the fastest regions along with Iceland and other global hotspots.
The report’s glacial index estimates that since 1976, glacial melts have contributed more than 25 mm to global sea level rise. In recent years, this accelerated glacial loss has led to sea levels above average. Yes, the meaning is serious.
If there is one important point you want to share with all European citizens from this report, what is it?
The headline is, of course, that Europe has recorded the warmest years and is the fastest continent. But beyond statistics, I highlight the big collaboration behind this report. Around 100 scientists gathered to analyse cutting-edge data and tell the story of climate change.
So, I say: Listen to that story. Read the report. I’ll talk about climate change. Let us know your decision. That collective understanding and consciousness are essential to action.
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