The number of electric vehicles in Africa is expected to double between now and 2050, faster than on any other continent.
A new study led by researchers at ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute PSI shows that electric vehicles, combined with solar-powered off-grid charging systems, could become economically competitive in many African countries well before 2040.
“Many models have assumed that internal combustion engine vehicles will remain dominant in Africa until mid-century,” said lead author Bessie Knoll, senior research fellow in the Energy and Technology Policy Group at ETH Zurich.
“Our findings show that under certain conditions, e-mobility is possible sooner than many think.”
Barriers to EV adoption in Africa
Researchers say the biggest obstacle to mass adoption of EVs in Africa is not technology but funding.
In many African countries, investments are considered risky, so loans are expensive. This has implications because electric cars have higher initial costs.
“Reducing financing costs would dramatically accelerate the transition,” Noll said. “Possible options include government guarantees, new financing models, and international support.”
“E-mobility also has the potential to create new economic opportunities for Africa through local assembly, new services and jobs along the supply chain.”
The study also highlights significant differences within Africa. In countries with more stable financing conditions, such as Botswana and South Africa, electric vehicles may become more competitive faster. In countries like Guinea, where financing costs are high, the transition is likely to be even slower.
Solar power is the key to mass intake
An important aspect of the research is vehicle charging. In many parts of Africa, electricity grids are unreliable or non-existent.
Researchers therefore analyzed 52 countries and more than 2,000 locations in Africa for scenarios where electric vehicles are charged using dedicated grid-independent solar farms and stationary batteries.
Specifically, the researchers’ calculations show that a compact solar system is sufficient for a small car that travels about 50 kilometers (about 30 miles) a day.
The cost of charging is a small portion of the total cost of a vehicle. In many regions, it already makes economic sense to switch to electric scooters and bikes.
Synthetic fuel is not an option
The researchers also compared electric cars to cars running on synthetic fuels.
The performance of these vehicles will be significantly reduced. Even under very optimistic assumptions, such as producing in Chile using very affordable solar power, costs remain high.
Christian Moretti, a researcher at PSI’s Institute for Energy Systems Analysis, explained: “Synthetic fuels are also urgently needed in other sectors, such as aviation and industry. Synthetic fuels do not make sense as a priority for EV adoption in Africa.”
Assessing the impact of EVs on global public finance
A second study involving Bessie Noll reveals another aspect of the transition to electric vehicles.
This study examines the impact of the global transition to electric vehicles on public finances around the world.
Currently, taxes on gasoline and diesel generate approximately $900 billion annually worldwide. In many countries, this revenue funds road construction and, more broadly, transport infrastructure. With the rise of electric vehicles, this revenue is at risk of disappearing.
“While the transition to electric vehicles makes sense from a climate policy perspective, it poses budgetary challenges for many countries,” Knoll said. Early tax reform and international support could help avoid funding shortages.
Taken together, these studies show that EV adoption in Africa is technically and economically feasible, but that reaching its full potential requires forward-thinking policies that holistically address energy, transport, and financial issues.
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