Retirees Could See Social Security Benefits Drop by $500 a Month

By Alejandra García August 20, 2026

Key Takeaways

The Social Security Administration projects that payroll taxes will only be able to fund 78% of Social Security benefits by 2032.

That could mean cuts to retirees’ monthly payments.

A new analysis predicts which states could see the steepest drop.

If you plan to retire in the next decade, new updates from the Social Security Administration (SSA) could mean your retirement benefits might be less than you expect. 

According to a June update from the Social Security Board of Trustees, the SSA projects that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund reserves will be depleted in the third quarter of 2032, with 78% of benefits payable at that time. 

According to the Committee for a Responsible Financial Budget (CRFB), that means benefits will need to be reduced by an estimated 22% by 2033 “to ensure the program’s costs do not exceed its revenues.”

Just how much lower your retirement benefits might be depends heavily on your income. The CRFB estimates that a typical dual-income couple could see their benefits slashed by $16,900 per year. Across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, the CRFB predicts that monthly benefit cuts would amount to $500 on average.

According to a MoneyLion report via Yahoo Finance, retirees in certain states could feel the loss more than others. These 15 states have the highest average Social Security payments, and therefore could see the biggest cuts as soon as 2033. Here’s how much retirees in these states could stand to lose:

Connecticut: $556 per month

New Jersey: $554

New Hampshire: $554

Delaware: $549

Maryland: $541

Washington: $531

Minnesota: $530

Massachusetts: $527

Michigan: $523

Utah: $523

Virginia: $522

Kansas: $520

Pennsylvania: $519

Rhode Island: $519

Vermont: $516

Key Takeaways

The Social Security Administration projects that payroll taxes will only be able to fund 78% of Social Security benefits by 2032.

That could mean cuts to retirees’ monthly payments.

A new analysis predicts which states could see the steepest drop.

If you plan to retire in the next decade, new updates from the Social Security Administration (SSA) could mean your retirement benefits might be less than you expect. 

According to a June update from the Social Security Board of Trustees, the SSA projects that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund reserves will be depleted in the third quarter of 2032, with 78% of benefits payable at that time. 

According to the Committee for a Responsible Financial Budget (CRFB), that means benefits will need to be reduced by an estimated 22% by 2033 “to ensure the program’s costs do not exceed its revenues.”

Just how much lower your retirement benefits might be depends heavily on your income. The CRFB estimates that a typical dual-income couple could see their benefits slashed by $16,900 per year. Across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, the CRFB predicts that monthly benefit cuts would amount to $500 on average.

According to a MoneyLion report via Yahoo Finance, retirees in certain states could feel the loss more than others. These 15 states have the highest average Social Security payments, and therefore could see the biggest cuts as soon as 2033. Here’s how much retirees in these states could stand to lose:

Connecticut: $556 per month

New Jersey: $554

New Hampshire: $554

Delaware: $549

Maryland: $541

Washington: $531

Minnesota: $530

Massachusetts: $527

Michigan: $523

Utah: $523

Virginia: $522

Kansas: $520

Pennsylvania: $519

Rhode Island: $519

Vermont: $516


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