In a recent blog post, Openai CEO Sam Altman has a look at how artificial general information (AGI) is approaching reality and what it means for the economy, society and the future of work. We shared our thoughts. His observations paint the world on the brink of massive change driven by AGIs.
AGI: The next step in human innovation
Altman sees AGI as both a continuation of a long history of building tools and a potential game changer that could dramatically change our lives. While AGI is based on past innovations such as electricity, computers, and the Internet, Altman suggests this time things can be different. AGI has the potential to give people more time and freedom to unprecedented economic growth, breakthroughs in disease treatment, and to increase their creativity.
Three important observations on the economic impact of AI
Altman highlights three points that show that AI is shaking the economy.
Scaling intelligence using resources: More resources become smarter, including computing power and data thrown in AI models. This growth follows a predictable pattern. In other words, stable investments will continue to boost AI capabilities. AI costs are falling sharply. The cost of using AI is 10 times cheaper every 12 months. Altman points out how token costs have dramatically dropped from GPT-4 in early 2023 to GPT-4 in mid 2024. This price drop is even faster than what Moore’s laws see, driving the boom in AI adoption. Growth in intelligence brings great value. As AI gets smarter, its value to society increases even faster. This encourages more investments and there is no indication that it will be slower anytime soon.
AI replaces software engineers
One of Altman’s boldest predictions is how AI will change the workplace. He believes that AI agents can become virtual colleagues and handle the tasks that software engineers and other knowledge workers are currently doing. These AI agents still require human supervision and do not replace creative thinking, but can be expanded in ways that change industries. Draw millions of virtual junior engineers working with humans.
The broader social impact of AGI
Altman compares the possibilities of AGI with the possibilities of transistors, suggesting that AGI will penetrate every part of the economy. In the short term, life may feel quite normal, but over time its effects are impossible to ignore. When AI reduces intelligence and energy, the costs of many products will be lower, but limited resources like luxury items and land can become more expensive.
Altman is not embarrassed to acknowledge the challenges. Building the right balance between public policy, social adaptation, and safety and individual freedom is key to ensuring that AGI benefits everyone. He warns of the dangers of AI being misused by authoritarian governments for surveillance and control.
Make sure AGI benefits everyone
Through his blog, Altman highlights the need to ensure that the benefits of AGI are widely shared. Technological advances tend to improve health and prosperity, but do not automatically reduce inequality. Altman brings out unconventional ideas, such as giving people a “calculation budget” to ensure that everyone has access to AI capabilities.
All of Altman’s vision is about empowerment. “Everyone in 2035 should be able to register the equivalent intellectual capabilities of everyone in 2025.” By ensuring that everyone has access to intelligence, AGI has an incredible creative and creative experience. We were able to unlock economic growth.
As AGI moves from theory to reality, Altman’s thoughts provide a glimpse into future opportunities and challenges, and encourage them to prepare for what will come to society.
Check out Altman’s blog post here.
Three observations: https://t.co/ctvga5vfmy
– Sam Altman (@sama) February 9, 2025
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