China needs to generate more than half of its wind and solar clean power by 2035, according to a new study led by the University of California, San Diego.
This is because countries around the world are expected to submit new rounds of nationally determined contributions, a five-year climate plan required under the Paris Agreement.
The study provides timely recommendations to meet the country’s future climate commitments.
China’s role in accelerating global decarbonization
In particular, China’s updated 2035 NDC is considered crucial to global efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C.
The authors of this paper highlight the current policy framework being inadequate and the 2035 NDC is an opportunity to reset expectations, particularly highlighting China’s clean power sector.
“There is no solution to climate change without China,” says Michael Davidson, author and assistant professor of the undergraduate of the Global Policy and Strategy and School of Global Policy and School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering of Engineering.
“This accounts for around 30% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, more than twice the next biggest emitter, the United States. What China does is a litmus test for global climate change efforts.”
Turn on half of the grid with clean power
To meet climate commitments, wind and solar should supply up to 56% of China’s electricity by 2035, but this study is up from just 18% in 2024.
When including hydropower, nuclear and biomass, clean power should account for almost 80% of the power generation mix.
This will significantly reduce the role of fossil fuels in China’s electricity system, reducing coal and gas production to just 20% by 2035.
“Given the massive uncertainty associated with economic activity and energy use, setting targets for wind and solar generation shares is a robust approach to planning for the electricity sector,” explained Davidson.
“The Generation Share Target provides clear guidance to maintain momentum towards the country’s 2060 carbon neutrality target.”
Researchers recommend that China deploy 2,910-3,800 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar power by 2035, starting from around 1,200 GW today. This requires the installation of new renewable energy from 120 to 220 GW per year. This is a target that China has already surpassed with a record 357 Golden Week development in 2024.
Set realistic power targets
The authors evaluated what kind of electricity sectors China could adopt to its climate targets by modeling different scenarios in granular representations of where wind and solar farms are built.
They incorporated both technical constraints and a wide range of uncertainties.
“It’s feasible and we think it’s practical,” Davidson said. “In fact, the growth we propose is below what China has already achieved historically. These goals reflect careful optimism based on current capabilities and policy momentum.”
With almost every country preparing to release an updated climate plan, China’s decision could shape the pace and ambition of global efforts to accelerate clean power.
Researchers say the study offers a data-driven benchmark to guide policymakers not only in Beijing but also in other capitals where wind and solar are on the rise.
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