The rapid increase in the number of orbital objects requires increasing the amount of available data to support safe, sustainable, and safe space operations.
It’s cliché to say that orbital environments have undergone dramatic changes in both use and occupation over the past decade, especially with the growth of both reusable launch vehicles and giant constellations. The ten-fold increase in human spatial objects is consistent with the resulting growth in the amount of data on the spatial environment.
There has been exponential growth in commercial space situational awareness (SSA) companies, but remains much the same in terms of data availability regarding their operations in spaces close to the globe. In its simplest form, situational awareness of space is understanding what is happening, coming out and happening in the universe, but the availability of data to support it is far from simple.
Meet the increased need for space data
A space traffic survey conducted in 2021 predicts that over 500 data from the space will reach more than 500 information over the current decade. This represents an astounding 14-fold increase over the decade. This is necessary to meet both current and future space traffic management/space traffic requirements.
Acquiring information with data volumes equivalent to 3.9 billion data volumes over the next decade is merely the first part of understanding, analyzing and, hopefully, adjusting the orbital environment. This discussion highlights some of the problems in all forms of space data management, suggesting some of the key steps required to address the dramatic increase in spatial objects and ensure safe operation in space.
Understanding low earth orbit
Discussions about space and data must begin by acknowledging the emergence of large constellations and a dramatic increase in the number of spatial objects in low earth orbit (LEO). At the time of writing, there are over 13,000 active satellites in the orbit, of which over 60% belong to Starlink Constellation, one owner/operator. The large-scale deployment of these small satellites results in a significant increase in data generation rates. To provide a complete picture for spatial situational awareness, each satellite requires continuous tracking of objects and phenomena in a wider orbital environment, collision avoidance assessment, and subsequent adjustments.
Starlink Constellation publishes biennial operational reports and employs an autonomous collision avoidance algorithm that each satellite can operate to maintain safety from other satellites in its path. However, each maneuver reduces the satellite’s orbital lifespan and involves a finite “fuel” supply, and the accuracy of the coupling prediction is at best questionable.
The meaning of the amount of data needed/generated moves us beyond simple object tracking. There is generated data for orbital propagation calculations, operation planning adjustments, and real-time collision probability assessments. Despite StarLink Constellation, which benefits from autonomous collision avoidance, other satellite users must consider planned orbital operations, station maintenance activities, and terminal disposal procedures. This type of sophisticated data management requires a system that can deal with numerous updates, manage multidimensional orbital data, and manage the complex interconcel satellite relationships of models. This simply takes into account data generated by active operational satellites. Adding deadly and untrackable universe debris quickly encounters different requirements for object classification, alternative detection methodologies, storage protocols, and processing capabilities.
Currently, flight warning data is managed, shared and secured by the US Space Force, the 18th Space Defense Squadron (18SDS). This is a service that has been earlier than the daily update of spaceTrack.org³ – longer than the increase in space traffic, and is achieved by providing a direct warning to the operator if a conjunction is detected within a certain probability range. Although there has been a surge in commercial SSA companies over the past decade, US space forces rely primarily on the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN) as a source of data and information.
Space Surveillance Network
SSN is a network of radars, electro-optic and passive radio frequency (RF) sensors used to catalogue missile warnings, space objects, and identify space objects, along with safety and compliance monitoring. Few ground radars optimized to support missile warning and defense are dedicated to space tracking.
Along with our work we do at 3S Northumbria and our American partners at Exo-analytic Solutions, analyzing space traffic data shows that it’s not just a matter of managing the amount of information. It covers the diversity and complexity of data types. To obtain full space situational awareness, the system must process observational data from ground-based radar systems, optical telescopes, and space-based sensors. Each of these generates data in different formats, with different levels of accuracy, updated at different times, and ultimately arises from different sources.
Furthermore, different track regimes have different requirements. Leo objects often require faster response times than Earth orbit objects due to the operational dynamics of the regime. They travel at a speed similar to 7 km/sec and orbit the Earth in just 90 minutes. Therefore, changes and danger warnings should be short and processed and executed promptly. It doesn’t even touch on the effects of the Earth’s outside of the atmosphere. This can have a significant impact on orbital propagation.
Use new technology
Adding artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning algorithms to the mix brings another layer of complexity. Such systems require extensive training datasets, as well as access to active sensor feeds. In many cases, the rich data needed to support effective AI is not available due to government and military classification restrictions. All this, combined with historical trend data, attempts to accurately predict trajectories and collision probability. As a result of all this, the data infrastructure must accommodate not only raw observed data, but also processed outputs from these various algorithms. These challenges are not insurmountable, but they point to some of the challenges policymakers and regulators encounter when trying to manage satellite operations in Earth orbit.
Secure space operations rely on near-realistic time sharing and information dissemination to provide collision warnings and recommend collision avoidance operations. Although current support for operators appears appropriate, we ask the question of whether we can handle further increase in space traffic. Hope for future space traffic management is based on the ability of data providers to provide near-realistic data processing capabilities. Standardizing information and ensuring cross-border information sharing do not only present technical challenges with regard to data formats. Furthermore, there is no obvious formal communication line between trackers, regulators, operators and data holders.
Establishing procedures and policies
In addition to these procedures and processes that need to be placed within the right agency (and these may vary by jurisdiction), there is the challenge of establishing and maintaining the quality of the generated data while ensuring safe, sustainable and safe space. Currently, the outline of liability for damages caused by a certain space object is uncertain, untested and troublesome. Article III, the 1972 Convention on Liability, provides that the State will be liable for damages caused by the Space Object if it is possible to indicate that the condition (or the person responsible) caused the damages. The 1972 treaty continues to establish a quasi-diplomacy mechanism that can restore damages to liability.
As you can probably see, if the faulty person is liable for damage on the track, the operator should decide whether to perform a collision avoidance operation and ensure that the data they rely on is of the highest possible quality. There are many opportunities for imaginative legal advisors to challenge the integrity of data integrated from ground-based sensors and processed by algorithms. The mechanisms for managing and sharing data must be as certain as the mechanisms for processing and analyzing that data. Operators who rely on data for safe operation will immediately question the probability of data when a conflict results in an expensive claim for damages caused while acting on that data.
This reliance on vast amounts of data reveals some difficulties. The main focus of these is the requirement that data be processed, stored and shared in a widely understood format. Work is underway on both the Consultative Committee on Space Data Systems (CCSDS) coupled data messaging standards and the emerging ISO/TC20/SC14 standards for space traffic coordination, addressing the need for perceived international standards in data collection, storage, and exchange with interoperable message formats. Standardized international data sharing protocols can be established, but interactions between all uses of the space, including satellite operators, national regulators, commercial providers of SSA information, and changes to how this is provided. There is clear debate that space safety and sustainability should be a citizen’s “agenta,” and it is now open to military organizations offering support to focus on security.
Additional support required for space operators
Looking to the future, the work carried out by the US Department of Commerce should help alleviate problems and improve safety for operators. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Department of Space and Commerce is developing Space Traffic Coordination System (TRACS) to provide basic SSA data and services to civil and commercial operators to support space safety. This means that the future of regulating orbital environments will involve the integration of data from ever-growing sensor technologies. However, it is important that the industry does not lose sight of the need to enhance this ability, along with other more attractive ways to spend money. More data sources inevitably provide more reliable data about the orbital environment. The resulting data management infrastructure needs to be flexible enough to accommodate these new types of sensors, while being compatible with existing legacy systems. And it must be international.
This discussion seeks to highlight some of the issues with data management as the number of objects in orbit continues to grow at a dramatic rate. These problems do not exist in isolation. Technical and operational governance obstacles need to be addressed. An increasing number and diversity of sensors gathering information about the orbital environment will inevitably lead to better data for operators. It represents a low grade fruit for those who benefit from managing that data and spreading it effectively and are concerned about the safety of their operations in an increasingly crowded orbital environment.
reference
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/12/06/2346194/0/en/nsr-report-space-traffic-data-volumes-increase-14x-over-over-the-next-ten years.html https://www.kratosdefense.com/constellations/articles/spacex–semi-nual-pdate-on-starlink-network-weilure-collision-collision-collision-risk-spacetrack.org is a service that shares information with the public with the US Department of Defense that shares SSA services.
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