There is a new study that increases the existence of space junk in the orbital of the earth, which is a threat to escalating on the journey of the sky, and emphasizes the risks related to untroded rockets that are re -entered the atmosphere.
Recent studies at the University of British Columbia (UBC) estimate a 26 % annual probability of falling into a busy flight route, causing the potential confusion of airlines and passengers.
Space junk is unlikely to hit aircraft, but the economic and logistics impact of aircraft closure due to the falling of debris is important.
Authorities had already needed to close the airspace to re -entry, commercial flights, and economic burden on airlines and travelers.
The launch and flight of the rocket are increasing
The frequency of rockets will be released as the global space industry continues to expand rapidly.
Even in 2024 alone, the release of 258 succeeded and contributed to the re -entry of the recorded 120 non -controlled rocket debris.
It is expected that untranslined re -entry issues will only grow as more than 2,300 spent rocket bodies are still going around the earth.
At the same time, the number of empty journey is increasing. The International Aviation Transport Association predicts that the number of air transportation will increase by nearly 7 % in 2025, more aircraft in the universe will be more likely to intersect with commercial airspace.
Influence of cosmic shards on aviation safety
UBC researchers analyzed air traffic data and found that Denver, Colorado, had the highest air traffic density in Colorado on the busy day of 2023 and had one aircraft every 18 km².
Using this as a reference point, we calculated the probability of rocket debris in the traffic air space again.
Their discoveries were concerned:
A 26 % chance of a cosmic junk that is re -entered in the airspace with the Vancouver Corrido and the traffic density. 75 % of global shards entered the area with air traffic density comparable to southern Europe, and in 2022 the airspace was temporarily closed due to the drop in rocket debris.
The estimated annual probability of a cosmic fragment that actually collides with the aircraft is 1/430,000. This is a low risk that air authorities cannot ignore.
Changing risk of the space industry to airlines
The problem of the core is how modern rockets are designed. Many rocket stages that push the satellite into the track remain in space and ultimately return to the earth in an untrained way.
This means that air authorities are forced to re -route, close the airspace, or take the risk of continuing flights under uncertain conditions.
Experts argue that re -entering untroded rocket bodies is an inevitable and inevitable design.
The space industry can implement a more secure design, such as a rocket that can be re -entered into the specified ocean zone after deployment.
However, such changes require global cooperation and regulations because a single country or company does not want to pay for it alone.
Call for international behavior
UBC researchers emphasize that the government must set international standards to obligate the controlled re -entry in the rocket stage.
Without such regulations, private companies and nations that launch satellites will have little incentive to adopt a safer design.
As space activities continue to grow, if the universe cannot be dealt with, the destruction of the airspace will be destroyed, airline costs will increase, and passengers will increase the risk of passengers.
Both the aerospace and the space industry are at an important intersection, so policies must act quickly to guarantee that the sky is safe.
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