Which films are Oscar frontrunners off fall festival circuit

Fall film festival season is in full swing — and with Venice, Telluride and Toronto under our belts, Oscar contenders are coming into focus. While some unexpected titles picked up steam upon their fest debuts, others saw their awards prospects die on the vine.

First up is the breakout hit of Telluride, the audacious Elizabeth Holmes doc “You Can See Everything.”

The film from Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim premiered as a “secret screening” at the Colorado festival and earned rave reviews and swift proclamations that it could contend in both best documentary and best picture races. (It could also compete in other categories that would spoil the movie, so we’ll refrain from discussing those until after it hits theaters via A24 on Oct. 16.)

Oppenheim has emerged as an in-demand director this season. He’s also behind the stylistic Chris Hansen/“To Catch a Predator” pic, “Primetime,” which debuted at Venice and has generated best actor buzz for leading man Robert Pattinson. It doesn’t hurt that Pattinson is everywhere this year. (See also: “The Drama,” “The Odyssey” and “Dune: Part Three.”) “Robert is just operating on a whole other level right now. I’m so happy for him. It makes me feel justified with my ‘Twilight’ obsession,” says one awards source.

Another title surging after TIFF is Amazon MGM’s “I Play Rocky,” starring Anthony Ippolito as Sylvester Stallone during his dogged quest to play the titular boxer. Multiple sources cite the title as the biggest revelation of the fest. “‘I Play Rocky’ went over crazy well. I think Anthony Ippolito is so charming and so sweet, and he really fought for this role. That will play well in his campaign, the way he talks about it,” one says. Another adds that the film already had strong word of mouth and test scores before its debut, but “seeing is believing.”

(If you missed Toronto, the film will play the Calabasas Film Festival on Sept. 24!)

It’s a little funny to note that Amazon will now have two Rockys competing for Oscar gold, between “Project Hail Mary’s” lovable alien and the famous underdog boxer. Amaze amaze amaze!

Jesse Eisenberg’s latest directorial effort, “The Debut,” also earned a warm reception at Telluride and TIFF, with stars Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti generating critical acclaim.

Eisenberg hosted an additional screening in Los Angeles for the “important people” who couldn’t make it to the fests. “It blew the roof off the DGA. Everyone was laughing. Throughout his Q&A, people were enthralled,” one awards source in attendance says, adding that Eisenberg’s charismatic nature and ability to explain his process is a boon for his campaign. “He really captivated the room with every story he told – it really feels like that movie is going to be incredibly hard to beat.”

Other performances generating buzz after the festivals include John Malkovich for “Wild Horse Nine,” Rosalind Eleazar for Chris Rock’s “Misty Green” (“a star is born,” says one source), Andrew Scott for “Elsinore” and married duo Javier Bardem and Penelope Cruz for “Bunker.”

There are also buzzy Cannes titles that got a second wind after debuting to new audiences, including “La Bola Negra” (which also won the TIFF People’s Choice Award) and Jordan Firstman‘s “Club Kid.”

Netflix snapped up “La Bola Negra” after its Cannes debut, while A24 bought “Club Kid.”

But where some titles skyrocketed, others fell (though they certainly aren’t out of contention just yet).

Among the list of relative disappointments is “Prima Facie,” which earned a lukewarm reaction at TIFF after being eyed as an early contender in the best actress race for star Cynthia Erivo.

“It’s definitely divisive. I liked it,” one source says, admitting, “It didn’t go over that well. I’m curious about why not. I still think Cynthia is a contender. At the end of the day, it’s a good performance in a movie that might not work. And she’s a previous nominee, so that gives her a leg up.”