MONTREAL, Canada – Just a few months ago, Canada’s governing liberals looked poised for a 2025 election defeat.
Opinion polls showed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party would take over the opposition Conservative Party by up to 26 percent of points.
The affordability crisis and widespread dislike of Trudeau have plunged Liberal support, calling for the looming prime minister to step down ahead of the looming federal vote.
But now, experts say the political trends are changing, including Trudeau’s decision to resign, the liberal leadership race that helped boost the party’s momentum, and President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to Canada.
Recent research shows that liberals quickly narrowed the gap behind conservatives, and one poll released last week shows that they are leading the Tories and party for the first time since 2021.
“Two months ago, the liberals were on the ropes, but many people believed they were politically over,” said Semra Sevi, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto.
“Now they’re back.”
Trudeau’s resignation
Trudeau’s decision in early January is that the decision of the Prime Minister and Liberal leaders to resign once a replacement is selected is one of the main factors in the party’s changing fate, experts told Al Jazeera.
Trudeau, who has been prime minister since 2015, has faced years of public outrage over the government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the crisis in which he lives with a surge in home prices.
The Prime Minister and his party also failed to effectively counter the long-standing attacks from the burgeoning Conservatives and its firefighter leader Pierre Polyeayer.
Trudeau’s resignation has changed political dynamics, said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, who released a late February poll that marks his first lead in four years and his first lead to the Liberals.
Bricker explained that some voters joined the conservative camp more because of their desire for change than because of the party’s agenda or support for Poilliebre.
“now [they are] I think there may be another option for the change,” Bricker told Al Jazeera. “That’s Mark Kearney.”
Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada, is at the forefront of the race to replace Trudeau as Canada’s next prime minister and liberal leader.
The race revitalized the liberal foundation, attracted media attention around the country, and raised interest in the party.
“Mark Carney has the smell of his new car and people are really interested in taking part in the Test Drive,” Bricker said of the Leadership Contest, which will be decided by the March 9 vote.
A conservative message
At the same time, the Conservatives seem to be struggling to refocus their message in the post-Trudeau era of Canadian politics.
“One of the very successful things Poilierbre has had in the space of the past two years was characterizing the liberal record, just as Canadians have learned to oppose what the Liberals are doing,” Bricker said.
Poilievre especially managed to slander Trudeau, he added. “But what happened is because the Prime Minister is gone.
Poilliebre and the conservatives tried to tie Carney, who previously served as Trudeau’s economic adviser, but not an elected member of the Canadian Parliament, to the liberal government record.
They called him the “carbon tax carney” in connection with the unpopular, liberal government carbon pricing programme that Carney publicly supported but has since said he would be discarded if elected.
Poilievre also regularly attacks the “Karney Trudow Liberals” on social media.
However, Bricker said over the past few weeks that Canadians are less interested in liberal policies over the past decade than what is happening today, especially as relevant to the US.
Trump’s Factor
In fact, the statements coming out of the White House since Trump took office on January 20th have served as perhaps the most important factor in the Liberal Party’s revival, analysts say.
For months, the US president had threatened to collect sudden tariffs on imports from Canada, in a move experts say it would destroy the Canadian economy.
Trump continued his plan this week as his sweeping 25% tariffs on most Canadian goods came into effect early Tuesday. Ottawa responded by introducing mutual measures against the United States and promoting the fear of a trade war.
The tariffs, coupled with Trump’s repeated push to make Canada the 51st state in the United States, have driven widespread rage and surges in Canadian nationalism. Many Canadians are now asking the country to leave the US, but they are no longer considered stable ally.
Genevieve Terrier, a professor of political science at the University of Ottawa, said that the so-called “voting questions” in Canadian elections are certainly the best party to manage and manage the relationship between Canada and the US.
“in front [the focus] Could the liberals beat the conservatives? ” Terrier told Al Jazeera. “Now, it’s about financial leadership. That’s how you respond. [the] American? ”
Although she explained that Poilievre’s fighting style helped him in the opposite direction, some Canadians have questioned whether he could bring people together.
“The problem with Poilierbre is that he often says the same thing as Donald Trump,” Terrier added. “There are many similarities.”
Meanwhile, Trudeau’s unified “team Canada” approach to the threat of the US president has been well received by Canadians who helped liberals. “And at once the government acted swiftly, but that wasn’t actually the case before,” Tellier said.
Early election call?
In the meantime, Canada’s unrest will persist around Trump administration’s policies. The timing of federal elections has a new importance.
The election must be held by October 20th, but the Liberal Party, as a party of government — could trigger a vote before that.
Sebi of the University of Toronto said calling the election shortly after the new leader is selected on March 9 would help the party maintain momentum.
Tellier said early election calls could help the Liberal Party avoid potentially sticky political decisions.
Trudeau announced he would suspend Congress in early January and that he would resign. It is scheduled to resume in late March.
If lawmakers return to the House, the next liberal leader must form a cabinet and give a speech outlining the priorities of the new minority government.
“If you call early elections, you don’t have to do all of those,” Tellier said.
Ultimately, whenever a vote is scheduled, experts agree that Canada is heading for a very different contest than the one predicted just a few months ago.
“The elections are becoming much more competitive than expected,” Sevi told Al Jazeera.
Source link
