Dr. Irona van Dinser, an associate professor at Utrecht University, has pioneered the research into earthquakes and structural movements over the years. Her latest venture, ERC Consolidator Project Reset, is currently aiming to significantly improve earthquake forecasts on how and possibly when they will occur.
As history has demonstrated, major earthquakes can be a significant global threat with devastating consequences. However, it is considered impossible to predict the location, size and timing of an earthquake. Now, thanks to new discoveries and advances in technology, researchers are making major breakthroughs towards earthquake prediction.
Dr. Irona van Dinser, an associate professor of seismic physics and tectonics at Utrecht University, has been studying earthquakes and plate tectonics for many years. Her research interests range in the field of tectonics. Seismics; Tectonophysics; Earthquakes, Faults, Rock Mechanisms; Mantle Dynamics; and Structural Geology.
The first major breakthrough in Dr. Van Dinther’s work came when he pioneered the bridge between timescales from structural timescales (millions of years) to earthquake timescales (milliseconds) in numerical models, winning several awards. She then expanded her expertise by pioneering the application of ensemble-based data assimilation techniques, from weather forecasting to earthquake prediction in physics-based models.
Most recently, Dr. Vandiner has been funded by the European Research Council (ERC) for new projects designed to better predict earthquakes and understand surface motions. The Reset (Mega-Thrust Earthquake System Theory) project leverages Dr. Van Dinther’s previous achievements and expertise to dramatically improve the location, size and timing within a limited range of earthquakes.
To learn more about her research so far and how this will be transferred to a new reset project, the innovation platform spoke to Dr. Vandiner.
What are the main areas of focus in your work?
I work in several fields related to the field of tectonophysics, the physics of plate tectonics.
One of my main areas of research is understanding earthquakes and where, how and why they occur. I study natural earthquakes. It is mainly a small induced earthquake caused by human intervention in the first few kilometers of the Earth, focusing mainly on very large earthquakes in Sumatra, Japan, and Chilean areas.
My work on human-induced earthquakes focuses primarily on the gas fields of Groningen, a state in the northeastern Netherlands. We were extracting a considerable amount of natural gas from there. However, all gas extraction activities stopped as the earthquake continued to increase in volume and size and became too large for residents. Over the past decade, an unprecedented amount of data has been collected, making it a world-class natural laboratories for understanding earthquake physics. Learning this exceptional case study is needed to help provide sustainable solutions for the energy transition of society that requires global storage and heat capacity.
I am also studying plate tectonics, the movement of a large, hard plate that covers the first 100km of the Earth. I use my research in this field to inform my understanding of how earthquakes and mountains are formed, and mainly use numerical models to inform them of doing so. We are also working on data assimilation. Robustly integrate these numerical models with observations.
What are your main priorities and objectives at the moment?
Over the past few years, my work has focused primarily on human-induced earthquakes in Groningen. From a social perspective, this was a very urgent issue. I felt compelled to use information from physics to complement the answer to the most important question, “How big an earthquake will be?”
My main goal is fundamental in terms of understanding seismic physics. My team’s job is to determine where, when, why an earthquake begins and where it will stop. If you know where an earthquake starts and stops, you can get a good idea of the magnitude of the earthquake. It uses information collected from physics-based models and observations to inform people and policymakers of hazard assessments available to them. They are also trying to shift learning from gas extraction, which can benefit underground, such as geothermal energy, hydrogen and carbon dioxide storage, to more sustainable activities.
Although induced seismicity has been my top priority for the past five years, I have linked this to some data assimilation tasks. Data assimilation is essentially weather forecasting. Apply the techniques used for weather forecasting to see how it works for earthquake forecasting.
I’ve been working on the seismic nature a bit, but this is something I’ll be working on with the reset project. So far, I have mainly recruited and organized projects. It’s enough to say that there are promising teams together.
In addition to my research work, I also teach. Currently I have two new BSC courses. That is, modelling the Earth’s systems and the Earth’s heat, dynamics and danger.
What have been the important results of your work so far?
I thought my master’s degree at Utrecht University would have a good understanding of whether a numerical model could be used to simulate earthquakes on a millisecond time scale, which simulates plate tectonics over millions of years. During my PhD at EthZürich, I developed time scales, models and community bridges. When I first started my PhD, most people thought this was impossible. But when it showed that it was actually possible, many opportunities were opened up. Following this achievement, I was offered the position of Senior Scientist and Lecturer at EthZürich. Here I led a group of six doctoral students and stayed for five years to further develop my direction with the doctoral students.
While expanding the field of numerical Seismo-Tectonics, we also took on the challenge of working on ensemble-based data assimilation. The proof of concept study wanted to test whether weather forecasts could be used for earthquake prediction. Again, people thought this was impossible because there is far less data inside the Earth than we do for the atmosphere. However, we found that we don’t need that much data. Although it may be strong to use data assimilation in earthquake prediction, there are still many challenges to overcome. It’s a big job and not easy, but I’ll continue to work on this within the reset project as well.
Finally, last year, my group explained why earthquakes occur on rocks that were thought to have failed to maintain the onset of earthquakes, and what implications are that they still have the ability to use underground. Together with my colleagues, we are the first to provide physically-based information on the maximum size of human-induced earthquakes as input to an operational seismic hazard assessment.
Can you please tell me more about what a reset project is and how previous work complements this?
The reset project is primarily based on my first two major achievements. The first was the bridge between plate tectonics and earthquakes. This provided a viewpoint of a unified system. Here, rather than looking at things as different fields or different spatial components that are not related, we were able to see how they are related. It was really exciting because we predicted that certain observations should occur on the surface of the Earth that we haven’t seen yet. Soon afterwards, we realized that the vertical movement of the Earth’s surface was measured more accurately, and that there may be truth in the predictions. This information is important for creating images or maps of where faults (large fractures of Earth’s crust) are moving. Scientists have been doing it for the past year to 20 years, but only horizontal movement. These vertical movements provide a more detailed explanation of where and at what depth the fault is clogged. This allows you to better imagine the location of a future earthquake.
However, there is a lot of work to do to make these calculations happen quickly. Very fast numerical models and new imaging frameworks are needed to be able to explain the vertical motion of the Earth’s surface. Reset focuses on developing this new framework and running it before and after it to see what movements and processes will occur before, during and after a major earthquake.
Scientists traditionally performed this image and analysis before, during, or after an earthquake. By integrating observations before, during or after an earthquake, the team has more data to improve motion of image impairments, estimate parameters, and understand Earth processes. By converting static into a system concept, we can prepare the most basic theory of plate tectonics in geoscience for new discoveries.
This is constructed into the first stochastic seismic hazard assessment based on the first physical principle. Hopefully it will give us a good indication of where a big earthquake will occur. Latest satellite observations suggest that they may receive signs that a major earthquake could be coming. If that’s really the case, we might even be able to say something about the timing of the earthquake. Earthquake prediction is impossible – it is too difficult, too little observation, too non-linear. However, we can say something probabilistically to estimate the likelihood of a particular occurrence using statistics. If we can integrate all data and system-level physics, we may be able to take an important step in stochastic prediction of earthquakes.
What are your plans for the near and long term future?
To achieve the five-year target, these seismic system models must first be built over the next few years. I ran it in 2D in C and used multiple computers easily to make it faster, but I need to do it faster. Using new high-performance computing technology that relies on graphical processing units (GPUs), it uses solvers to calculate the solution without building an entire matrix.
We are based on what some of our colleagues have already done for glacial movements and other plate structure processes. Add the physics needed for earthquakes and adapt the application framework. This study focuses on subduction zones where plates collide with each other. The heaviest part falls into the mantle deep inside the earth. The heaviest part is always the ocean, and the bottom is the bottom. What we want to image is these movements between the two plates in this interface. These are truly big earthquakes that only occur once every few hundred years. But when they do so, they shake the entire region and the entire planet together. The whole world was shocked after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that caused a nuclear disaster. Although it is rare, in fact, almost 40% of the world’s population lives in areas that could be affected by these major earthquakes. These earthquakes also tend to produce tsunamis, affecting many coastlines where many people live.
This article will also be featured in the 22nd edition of Quarterly Publication.
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