The ECOSENS project provides a detailed picture of Europe’s perception of nuclear energy and emerging technologies.
Nuclear energy, particularly using advanced technologies and/or small modular reactors (SMRs), is receiving increasing attention worldwide as a potentially important contributor to reducing global CO2 emissions, while meeting the energy demands and ensuring energy security.
The European strategic framework (EU Taxonomy, RePowerEU) and increased interest in SMRs, after many years, favours the construction of new nuclear power plants. However, successful implementation depends on the cumulative fulfilment of essential preconditions: political decision and public acceptance. In this context, the ECOSENS project was conceived as an interdisciplinary project, bringing together specialists from social sciences, humanities, economics, nuclear energy research and policy, along with civil society representatives and other stakeholders with the main objective to address knowledge gaps and support informed decisions in the context of the energy transition, by:
Assessing public perception for an updated radiography of the attitude of the population in various EU countries towards emerging nuclear technologies, including an analysis of perceived role of nuclear energy in the context of current crises (climate and energy).
Developing a methodology for assessing the sustainability of nuclear energy, which goes beyond traditional economic evaluations, integrating social and environmental perspectives across the entire life cycle of nuclear investment.
Creating an innovative economic model capable of overcoming the weaknesses of existing economic models, offering a set of indicators relevant not only for investors, but also for a wide range of stakeholders (consumers, governments, suppliers).
Conducted between 2022-2025, ECOSENS generated a series of results with direct impact on the understanding of the social and economic aspects associated with the implementation of emerging nuclear technologies in Europe.
A collaborative assessment of (imagined) energy worlds
It is now generally accepted that technological innovation has to be responsive to citizens’ values, views, and expectations. Secondly, there is a need for critical reflection on the feasibility of sustainability assessment exercises used in energy policy advice, and on the assumptions made in these exercises, knowing that multiple aspects remain open to (rational) interpretation and debate. Given this, the social research in the ECOSENS aimed to open up the techno-scientific aspects of nuclear energy to the social, political, cultural, and ethical context, with the aim to guide policies in the nuclear field, and this along two tracks:
Research on citizen’s views and public participation
This study explored: citizens’ perceptions of SMRs’ risks and benefits and their potential role in the future energy mix; underlying values and expectations for citizen engagement in nuclear energy decision-making; and citizens’ motivations to engage in climate and energy-related protests.
In the first stage, a systematic review of the literature investigating how climate change and energy security considerations affect public attitudes towards nuclear power concluded that public support for nuclear power is generally negatively associated with climate change concerns and positively associated with energy security concerns. A next phase of the research shifted the focus to SMRs.¹ Representative surveys were conducted in Spain, Belgium, and Czechia, centring on the attitudes of the general public towards this technology and its commercial application. In addition, opinions and perceptions on SMRs were explored qualitatively through focus group discussions with the public and stakeholders in Slovenia, Slovakia, Czechia, the UK, Spain and Belgium, and were complemented by extensive desk research that compiled relevant information on SMRs in country-specific contexts.
Results highlight, among other things, that SMRs are seen as a promising technology for the future, provided their potential benefits can be proven. However, there are uncertainties about the unresolved issues of radioactive waste, economic costs and timeliness to address climate urgency. We concluded that there is a need for better public communication on SMRs with factual information about risks and benefits; opportunities for societal stakeholders to weigh in on decisions, particularly regarding siting or the balancing of sustainability outcomes; processes for long-term participation of societal stakeholders (e.g. local representatives, broader publics, non-governmental organisations) in decisions related to (nuclear) energy policy.
Sustainability assessment exercises’ possibilities and challenges
This research was mainly conducted through the creation of interdisciplinary spaces for research and dialogue on desired energy futures and sustainability assessment frameworks, bringing together researchers, civil society, and other stakeholders. The starting point of these reflective activities was the assumption that a fully evidence-based sustainability assessment can never exist, given that multiple aspects remain open to (rational) interpretation and debate, and this counts for the choice of criteria and indicators, for the interpretation of available data as well as for the approach chosen to ‘translate’ qualitative data into possible input data for modelling. Therefore, a credible sustainability assessment research project should not only contain ‘the assessment as such’, but also a meta-reflection on the feasibility of the assessment and the choices made.
“What energy future do we desire?” and “what energy future is possible?” were the questions initiating an ECOSENS International workshop that took place in Brussels in March 2023.² 20 participants from diverse backgrounds (academic, civil society, policy) discussed ‘the art and science of imagining energy futures’, focusing on the underlying worldviews and values, as well as the artifacts (like stories and concepts) used to express these futures. They also discussed the deliberative character of sustainability assessment, with a focus on how to ‘translate’ worldviews and values into formal assessment approaches.
Exploring the possible roles of nuclear power in the energy transition landscape
These multi-disciplinary exchanges confirmed that, as the global community progresses toward climate neutrality, the role of nuclear power remains one of the most debated and consequential elements in the energy transition. The ECOSENS dedicated activities on exploring nuclear energy’s potential pathways within Europe’s 2050 energy landscape, integrating scenario-based analysis and lifecycle sustainability assessment methodologies, taking into account that the future of nuclear energy is shaped by multiple interconnected factors – policy, technological innovation, societal acceptance, and geopolitical trends.
To manage the uncertainty of long-term forecasting, four plausible scenarios were developed:³ Nuclear Status Quo (NSQ), Nuclear Phase-Out (NPO), Nuclear and Renewables Synergy (NRS), and Nuclear Renaissance (NR). Each represents a distinct trajectory shaped by different levels of nuclear deployment and integration with renewables. The NSQ scenario extends current trends with no major acceleration. The NPO outlines the gradual or rapid discontinuation of nuclear energy due to economic or political factors. The NRS scenario emphasises synergy, positioning nuclear as a reliable complement to a high share of renewables. In the NR scenario, nuclear energy sees a revival driven by new technologies such as SMRs and Generation IV systems. These narratives illustrate the strategic options, risks, and opportunities confronting energy planners in the face of uncertainty.
The ECOSENS project further strengthens this analysis through a lifecycle sustainability assessment framework⁴ that evaluates energy transition technologies (variable renewables, hydro, nuclear, and gas) across environmental, economic, and social pillars. Using 62 stakeholder-validated indicators and sub-indicators, this comprehensive framework ensures each technology is analysed from multiple perspectives. The method fosters a more resilient energy strategy by offering data-driven figures of merit⁵ that help inform decisions based on comparative performance.
According to the assessment results, nuclear energy achieved the highest overall score among the four technologies, particularly excelling in areas such as low carbon emissions, efficient land use, safety by design, capacity factor, system integration costs, LCOE, macroeconomic contribution, high-skilled job creation, and support for regional economies. Nevertheless, nuclear also faces serious concerns: high capital and development costs, unresolved waste disposal issues, limited recyclability, marine ecotoxicity, operational flexibility constraints, and varying degrees of public acceptance and insurability. These challenges weigh heavily in determining the plausibility and attractiveness of each scenario.
Key enablers, such as political and public support, favourable regulation, innovation in SMRs and Gen IV reactors, and sustainable financing models will ultimately shape the future role of nuclear power. Similarly, risks associated with storage, system integration, and waste disposal must be addressed. Adaptive policy frameworks and active stakeholder engagement are vital to ensure that energy strategies align with societal expectations and evolving technical realities.
The system-of-provision-based model for nuclear energy analysis
An original maturity model grounded in the System of Provision (SoP) approach6,7,8 was proposed to assess the socio-technical conditions underpinning nuclear energy systems. Moving beyond conventional techno-economic analyses, the SoP-based model allows for a systemic understanding of how nuclear infrastructures emerge, stabilise, or decline within specific national contexts. Rather than evaluating nuclear power on the basis of isolated indicators such as cost, emissions, or capacity, the model foregrounds the institutional, political, cultural, and economic structures through which nuclear systems are established. Yet, the SoP-based model does not substitute economic or financial analysis (e.g., NPV, IRR, CBA), but it represents a preliminary assessment step to investigate how ‘friendly’ the national context is for nuclear power investments and eventually identify areas of improvement and intervention for policymakers.
Foundations and structure of the model
The model is derived from the SoP approach,⁸ which emphasises the embedded and historically contingent nature of provisioning systems. In our adaptation, nuclear energy was treated not as a generic commodity, but as a complex provisioning system shaped by country-specific constellations of agents, structures, relations, processes and material culture.⁷ The analytical structure of the model is articulated across five key dimensions, each representing a cluster of interrelated determinants:
Socio-economic dimension: This includes the availability of skilled labour, public and private financial capacity, the robustness of the nuclear supply chain, and institutional capability for managing large infrastructure projects. For example, countries with a strong industrial base and technical universities (e.g., France) exhibit high scores in this domain.
Political dimension: This dimension captures both formal institutions and informal power configurations: political consensus, governmental leadership, strategic commitment to energy independence, regulatory coherence, and the degree of market liberalisation. Centralised governance structures tend to act as enablers, while political fragmentation can present serious barriers (as seen in Belgium).
Technological dimension: Here, we consider material infrastructures and innovation systems: R&D capacity, grid readiness, siting availability, standardisation of reactor design, and waste management. A key insight is the path-dependency of technological systems; past decisions shape current feasibility.
Socio-cultural dimension: This focuses on the cultural and discursive environment surrounding nuclear energy: public attitudes, media narratives, local community responses to siting, and levels of public trust. These factors can critically mediate technical viability, as shown in the Spanish case where public opposition overrides technical readiness.
Environmental dimension: This includes both physical and symbolic dimensions: geographical and ecological conditions for siting, water availability, environmental protest movements, and the reframing of nuclear as a climate mitigation strategy. This domain reflects both objective constraints and subjective representations.
Analytical logic: Preconditions, enablers, and barriers
Within each dimension, the model identifies specific determinants. Each determinant is evaluated according to its systemic function:
Preconditions are essential foundations that must be in place for nuclear development to be viable (e.g., technical expertise or political stability).
Enablers are factors that facilitate the realisation or strengthening of preconditions (e.g., government subsidies, R&D programmes, public communication strategies).
Barriers are constraints that obstruct progress, either structurally (e.g., grid limitations, legal restrictions) or culturally (e.g., anti-nuclear sentiment).
This tripartite categorisation allows for nuanced, non-binary assessments of national contexts. Rather than categorising countries as simply ‘favourable’ or ‘unfavourable’ of nuclear power, the model highlights specific leverage points for policy and identifies where targeted interventions could shift systemic conditions.
Comparative applicability
The model has been tested through a multi-country analysis of eight European nations, capturing a variety of trajectories: expansion (e.g., Romania), stagnation (e.g., Belgium), and phase-out (e.g., Germany, Spain). These applications demonstrate the model’s flexibility and explanatory power. Each case was assessed through expert workshops and a structured scoring framework, enabling systematic comparison across dimensions and determinants. The SoP-based model application highlighted a holistic, multidimensional, and context-sensitive tool for understanding nuclear LTS’. Its structured yet adaptable design makes it suitable for both academic analysis and policy diagnostics across a wide range of geopolitical contexts.
Conclusions and outlook
The ECOSENS project represents an important effort in navigating the complexity of the European energy transition. Through its integrated approach, combining rigorous scientific research with a deep understanding of social and economic dynamics, ECOSENS has provided a detailed picture of how European citizens perceive emerging nuclear technologies, including the level of acceptance for SMR siting. This data is crucial for building effective communication and public engagement strategies, essential for achieving ‘public acceptance’ – a vital precondition for implementation of these technologies.
Through its scenario planning, combined with rigorous sustainability assessment and the SoP economic model, ECOSENS offers innovative analytical tools to political decision-makers. These enable a documented analysis of different types of energy generation, going beyond simple economic evaluation and integrating social and environmental aspects for making robust, forward-looking decisions in a rapidly evolving energy landscape.
References
Durdovic, M, et al. (2025): Public attitudes towards small modular reactors. An emerging research field and evidence from six countries. ECOSENS Deliverable D 1.1., http://dx.doi.org/DOI:10.20348/STOREDB/1212/1329
Meskens, G, Turcanu, C, Mays C, The art and science of imagining energy futures, ECOSENS international workshop ‘The art and science of imagining energy futures’, June 2023,
https://ecosens-project.eu/1376563-2/
Constantin M et al., (2023): Scenarios for climate neutral sector based on nuclear new technologies and variable renewables, ECOSENS Deliverable D2.3, DOI:10.20348/STOREDB/1185
Constantin M et al., (2023): Assumptions, models, and methodology, for the development of nuclear energy in EU, on the next two decades, ECOSENS Deliverable D2.1, DOI:10.20348/STOREDB/1183
Constantin M et al., (2024): Investigation on the sustainability of the entire life cycle of nuclear power, ECOSENS Deliverable D2.4, https://ecosens-project.eu/deliverable-2-4-investigation-on-the-sustainability-of-theentire-life-cycle-of-nuclear-power/
Bayliss, K, Fine, B, 2020. A Guide to the Systems of Provision Approach: Who Gets What, How and Why. Springer International Publishing, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54143-9
Dei, G, Mignacca, B, Locatelli, G, Trucco, P, 2025. Tackling new research questions in energy transition: The system of provision approach. Applied Energy 393, 125991. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125991
Fine, B, Leopold, E, 1993. The World of Consumption. Routledge
Authors: Daniela Diaconu, Marin Constantin, Catrinel Turcanu, Gaston Meskens, Giacomo Dei, Giorgio Locatelli, Benito Mignacca, Paolo Trucco, Marco Ricotti, Nadja Zeleznik
Disclaimer:
This project has received funding from the Euratom Research and Training programme, a
complementary funding programme to Horizon Europe, under grant agreement No 1010609.
Please note, this article will also appear in the 23rd edition of our quarterly publication.
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