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Home » We can make “City Killer” asteroid 2024 yr4 into its core before hitting the moon – if we act quickly, new research warns
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We can make “City Killer” asteroid 2024 yr4 into its core before hitting the moon – if we act quickly, new research warns

By September 23, 2025No Comments3 Mins Read
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Scientists are considering the possibility of firing nuclear weapons on asteroids that could hit the moon in 2032, but say more research is needed before moving forward as an option.

The study concerns the asteroid 2024 YR4, which reached YR4 in 2024, when scientists (who deal with limited observations) revealed that they were relatively likely to affect Earth in 2032, peaking at 3.1%.

This attracted media attention as the 180-foot (55 meters) asteroid is large enough to wipe out the city. However, the chance of a disaster quickly diminished when subsequent observations showed that the asteroid was very unlikely to come near Earth. As of February 2025, that impact probability has dropped to less than 1 to 360 (0.28%).

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That’s good news for our planet, but the updated tracking shows that the chances of an asteroid hitting the moon are pretty good – about 4%. The size, and crashing of relatively close to Earth objects, will almost certainly have some effect on us.

Astronauts threaten spacecraft

If an asteroid of the size of 2024 hits the moon, it will generate a lunar “ejecta” that kicks the regolith (a top layer of surface dust and small rocks), significantly increasing the debris of micromeasured leaflets in low-earth orbit.

Flux “can be up to 1,000 times higher than background levels. It could threaten astronauts and spacecraft. As space rocks could drill holes in spacecraft, space networks, and more, researchers wrote in a new study posted on September 15th on the preprint server ARXIV, which has not yet been peer-reviewed.

It is a threat to satellites and the International Space Station (if there is no excluded orbit in 2031 as planned), but attempts to divert asteroids could create even higher risks, the author warned. There remains a great deal of uncertainty about the exact mass of an asteroid. This means that attempts to fine-tune it from the course are also not certain. Researchers write that false biasing missions could accidentally push asteroids towards Earth.

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Scientists said in 2022 NASA’s DART mission deflected the asteroid Moonlett’s path. However, the researchers behind the new study concluded that attempts to bias the YR4 in 2024 look “impractical” as it has constraints such as not knowing the mass of the object, and has very limited windows for further research into the object prior to the 2032 closure.

Just make it your core

Instead, researchers consider the idea of ​​disbanding the asteroid. They suggest that a darts-style spaceship could be sent to punch asteroids intact and punch them in pieces. This is an untested concept, but NASA needs to think about it for several years between April 2030 and April 2032, when the launch window of such missions is considered.

Failing to do so, NASA was able to send a nuclear mission, which could explode a rocket-propelled nuclear on or near an asteroid before its approach. This method has also not been tested, but in theory it is possible. Researchers say that preparation time for the mission will be slightly less, but it could start between late 2029 and late 2031.

The paper emphasizes that the 96% chance that asteroids are not a problem with the moon is still OK, but researchers refer to this situation as an opportunity to further study asteroid-stricken spacecraft.

They invite other researchers to provide estimated build times for spacecrafts and create more designs.


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#Biotechnology #ClimateScience #Health #Science #ScientificAdvances #ScientificResearch
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