The US holiday shopping season is expected to bring in $253.4 billion online sales, up 5.3% year-on-year, according to a new report from Adobe Analytics, Adobe’s e-commerce connected division.
Adobe Analytics develops forecasts by analyzing over 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, covering 100 million Skus in 18 product categories. Its analytical software is used by the vast majority of the top 100 online retailers in the US and provides deep insight into online shopping and consumer behavior.
The company forecasts Cyber Monday once again to be the biggest shopping day of the year, up 6.3% year-on-year to $14.2 billion. Black Friday also shows higher growth, up 8.3% year-on-year to $11.7 billion. On Thanksgiving Day, U.S. consumers are expected to spend $6.4 billion online, up 4.9% year-on-year as online sales begin early.
Sales this holiday season are discounted consumer demand, where products are expected to be 28% off the listing price. Other trends, such as shopping from mobile devices, shopping using AI services, and buying now, are paying for later services.
In particular, Adobe predicts that AI-powered generative shopping will be booming this year, with AI traffic rising 520% year-on-year, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving. This follows a 1,300% increase in AI traffic to US retail sites seen in 2024.
The company expects consumers to use AI in research prior to their purchase, based on a survey of 5,000 US consumers. There is a 53% chance that they will use AI services for that purpose. In the survey, 40% said they used AI for recommendations, 36% for exchange findings and 30% for gift inspiration. Adobe expects AI to be most used in categories such as toys, electronics, jewelry, personal care and more.
Another trend we expect this year is that mobile devices will drive more online spending again compared to desktop shopping, reaching a record 56.1% share. Last year, Mobile accounted for 54.5% of online transactions during this period. This is an increase from 51.1% in 2023. It is unclear when mobile growth will taper and stabilize, especially considering the large smartphone devices available in the market.
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Holiday Shopping in 2025 shows further growth in Buy Now, with online spending expected to increase by $20.2 billion, or about $2 billion over the 2024 holiday season. Cyber Monday is expected to see a new BNPL milestone, with online spending expected to rise 5% year-on-year to $1.04 billion.
Social media will encourage more online sales this year. Social media ads are expected to drive an increase in online revenue of 51% year-on-year, from 2024’s 5% year-on-year growth.
Top categories of overall spending include electronics ($57.5 billion, up 4% year-on-year), apparel ($47.6 billion, up 4.4% year-on-year), and furniture ($31.1 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year).
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