As the United States seeks to expand nuclear power generation to meet surging demand for electricity, a less visible constraint is coming into focus: uranium fuel.
While policy momentum and private investment are flowing to both existing plants and next-generation reactors, the supply chain that supplies uranium fuel is strained, geopolitically exposed and slow to scale up.
Recent industry discussions highlight that without swift action, fuel availability could limit the pace and safety of U.S. nuclear growth.
Rising electricity demand fuels nuclear ambitions
The push for nuclear energy is driven by structural changes in the U.S. economy. The rise of energy-intensive AI data centers, the return of manufacturing, and the electrification of transportation and buildings are creating an unprecedented demand for reliable, always-on power sources.
Nuclear energy, with its low carbon emissions and stable output, is increasingly attracting attention as a solution that can meet these needs.
But expanding nuclear power requires more than just building reactors, it also requires a reliable supply of uranium fuel, which recent analysis suggests is not guaranteed.
Insights from the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Roundtable
More than 100 nuclear fuel sector leaders, including utility executives, reactor designers, government regulators, and industry experts, recently gathered in Arlington, Virginia, for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Roundtable.
The conference, hosted by the Precourt Energy Institute and Stanford University’s STEER Initiative, part of the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, examined barriers to uranium fuel production and considered strategies to strengthen the supply chain.
The findings highlight both immediate and long-term challenges for uranium fuel. The roundtable emphasized that while interest in investing in nuclear reactors is high, fuel supply constraints could undermine these goals.
Fragile global uranium fuel supply chain
The production of uranium fuel involves four major steps. These include mining uranium ore, converting it to gaseous form for enrichment, increasing the concentration of fissile U-235, and producing fuel rods for nuclear reactors.
The following vulnerabilities exist at each stage:
Mining: Four countries dominate the world’s uranium production: Kazakhstan, Namibia, Australia, and Canada. Only a small portion is produced in the United States due to high costs and low grade ore. While friendly partners reduce mining risks, dependence on foreign resources creates strategic risks. Kazakhstan, the largest producer, is also seeking autonomy from Russia and China, creating potential opportunities for U.S. involvement. Conversion: There are only five facilities worldwide that convert mined uranium into gas for enrichment. Market volatility has led to repeated shutdowns and uncertain production capacity, reducing global inventories. Without long-term contracts to guarantee demand, suppliers are reluctant to expand. Enrichment: Almost half of the world’s enrichment capacity is in Russia. Before the United States banned Russian uranium imports in 2024, about 30% of the United States’ enriched uranium came from Russia, highlighting significant geopolitical risks. This concentration raises concerns about national security and long-term credibility. Manufacturing: Although the United States is self-sufficient in producing ceramic fuel pellets and assembling fuel rods, roundtable experts emphasized that national and economic security would benefit from domestic capabilities across all stages of the supply chain.
Policy measures and investment hurdles
Government efforts are beginning to address these vulnerabilities. The Department of Energy recently awarded $2.7 billion in contracts to domestic enrichment companies for conventional and advanced reactors. These investments demonstrate the growing recognition that uranium fuel is a strategic priority.
However, challenges still exist. Utilities are reluctant to enter into long-term fuel contracts at current high prices, and suppliers cannot justify new equipment unless demand is guaranteed.
Roundtable participants suggested that government agencies could act as buyers of last resort, ensuring revenue certainty and attracting private investment.
Geopolitical uncertainty also complicates planning. Waivers and workarounds could weaken the effectiveness of the U.S. ban on Russian enriched uranium, and investors remain concerned about the long-term sustainability of these policies.
Next-generation nuclear reactors will amplify fuel pressure
The rise of advanced nuclear reactors, often referred to as fourth generation, adds further complexity.
These reactors require higher levels of uranium enrichment. This means that far more mined and processed uranium is required per ton of fuel than in conventional nuclear reactors.
Advanced fuels produce electricity for longer periods of time, but initial demand can strain extraction, conversion, and enrichment capacity, raising the cost of existing reactors.
New fuel forms also come with technical hurdles. Limited commercial experience and low initial manufacturing yields may increase costs, while access to test reactors remains lacking. Currently, there is only one fourth-generation nuclear reactor in operation in the world, in China.
Standardization of fuel specifications and closer coordination between reactor designers and manufacturers could help accelerate the learning curve and reduce initial inefficiencies.
Strengthening uranium fuel security
The Nuclear Fuel Cycle Roundtable concluded that reducing technical, economic, and policy uncertainties is essential to securing uranium fuel for both conventional and advanced reactors.
Key strategies include:
International partnerships and coordination of fuel standards Clarification and enforcement of geopolitical policies, including import bans Investment in research and development for cost-effective fuel production Coordination of public and private stakeholders to support long-term capacity expansion
Uranium fuel, once a background concern, is now central to America’s successful nuclear renaissance.
Ensuring reliable supply is critical to ensuring that nuclear energy is expanded safely, affordably, and at the pace needed to meet the nation’s growing electricity needs.
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