Iran war pushes global food insecurity to record levels, 363 million people could go hungry

A new analysis from the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) says a war in Iran could push an additional 45 million people into severe hunger in just three months, triggering record levels of global food insecurity.

The analysis found that if the conflict continues until the middle of this year and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel, an estimated 363 million people will become food insecure, 45 million more than the current 318 million.

The previous record was when the Ukraine war began in 2022, when the total number of people without adequate food was 349 million.

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“If this conflict continues, the shockwaves will be felt around the world,” WFP Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Karl Skow said in a statement. “Families who already can’t afford their next meal will be hit the hardest. Without a properly funded humanitarian response, this could spell disaster for millions of people already at risk.”

The United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28th. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively halted since March 2, disrupting trade in essential goods such as oil and liquefied natural gas fertilizers. Rising prices are putting pressure on regions dependent on food and fuel imports, with countries in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa expected to be the most vulnerable.

A separate UN statement said global fertilizer disruption was a matter of great concern. Skau said the timing comes as countries in sub-Saharan Africa are entering the planting season, adding that about a quarter of the world’s fertilizer comes through the Strait of Hormuz.

WFP calculated the impact of conflict on world hunger by calculating the number of people unable to eat a 2,100 calorie diet per day. We then modeled how a sustained oil price shock (lasting until June) would affect global food prices. Analysts calculated the impact based on each country’s dependence on imported food and energy, and the number of people who would be left without adequate energy supplies.

Their research shows that Asia is the region where food insecurity is increasing the most, with an estimated 9.1 million people becoming food insecure (up 24%).

Food insecurity due to war will affect approximately 17.7 million people in eastern and southern Africa, 2.2 million in Latin America and the Caribbean, 5.2 million in the Middle East and North Africa, and 10.4 million in Central Africa.

This means that an additional 45 million people would fit the definition of food insecurity around the world, for a total of 363 million people.

“This will take global hunger levels to an all-time high, which is a very frightening prospect,” Skow said.