El Nino is expected to return as early as May, according to a new report, which could bring above-normal temperatures to nearly every region of the planet.
El Niño events occur every two to seven years as part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) natural climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean. The ENSO cycle alternates between warm El Niño and cold La Niña periods with neutral periods in between. When an El Niño event occurs, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean increase, which weakens or reverses trade winds and significantly disrupts global temperature and rainfall patterns.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported in its Global Seasonal Climate Update released on April 21 that El Niño is expected to occur from May to July. WMO said the reliability of the forecast will improve after April, but for now models suggest this El Niño could be a “strong phenomenon”.
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“After a period of mild conditions at the beginning of the year, climate models are now in strong agreement and there is high confidence that El Niño will develop and intensify further in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Mfuuma Okia, head of climate forecasting at WMO.
The El Niño phenomenon has a serious impact on global agriculture, and some studies have linked it to famine in Europe. Civil war in the tropics. And droughts, floods, and forest fires are occurring all over the world.
The most recent El Niño event lasted from May 2023 to March 2024, contributing to 2024 being the hottest year on record.
The Global Seasonal Climate Update currently predicts a “rapid warming trend” in May, June and July. Temperatures are likely to increase in southern North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and northern Africa.
Rainfall patterns will change significantly around the world. Some parts of North America may experience more rain, but it is unclear at this point as there is no clear signal.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced in March that there was a 62% chance of an El Niño occurring from June to August. NOAA later announced that 61% of El Niño events would occur again from May to July and continue through the rest of the year. WMO does not use the term “Super El Niño,” but NOAA predicts a 25% chance of a “very strong” El Niño starting in November.
WMO is expected to release a revised El Niño update in late May.
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