It was only 18 months ago that 37-year-old Daniel Novore won the Ecuadorian presidency and became the youngest man ever to be elected to the office.
Well, on Sunday, he faces another poll.
However, this time there is a bigger prize, a full four-year term at the Presidential Palace. Novore’s final victory was a snap election, so he has been limited to offering the remainder of his predecessor’s term.
In Sunday’s race, Novoa will face 15 candidates, including leftist MP Luisa Gonzalez, his main competition in the last election. The vote has so far been poised to become a referendum for his short mission.
Novore took office as a candidate for law and orders and led several measures to expand the powers of law enforcement. But Ecuador nevertheless continues to suffer high levels of violence and organized crime.
Who is the candidate? What issues do voters focus on? And what can polls tell us about the state of racial life? This simple explanator will answer these questions and more.
What is the voting process in Ecuador?
The first round of votes will take place on Sunday, February 9th. To win perfectly, candidates must secure at least 50% of the vote or at least 40% with a 10-point advantage over candidates in second place.
If a candidate does not pass that threshold in the first round, a second vote will be held on April 13th, with the top two candidates appearing.
Is the presidency the only office you can get?
no. This is a general election. All seats in the country’s 151 parliament can also be obtained, and seats elected to parliament will also serve a four-year term.
Why is Novoa’s term in office so short?
President Novoa was first elected in October 2023 after his predecessor, Guillermo Lasso, faced with the ammo-each procedure, evoked a constitutional mechanism known as “Muerte Cruzada” or “death of mating.”
Muerte Cruzada had never been deployed before. Not only did it end Lasso’s terminology, it also disbanded Ecuadorian parliament and sparked a snap election.
At the time, Novoa was a first-term member of the Parliament, and he was one of the elected officials influenced by Muerte Cruzada.
Novoa, the heir to the banana business estate, eventually formed his own party, took office, and won a tight race that advanced to the second round. He was 35 years old at the time.
He then completed the remaining term of Lasso, the 18-month period. Now he is seeking his own full four-year term.
What do the polls say?
Novore faces competition from a crowded field of candidates. However, his biggest competition is likely to be Louis Sang Gonzalez, who lost in 2023 by a margin of less than four points.
Gonzalez represents the left-leaning Civil Revolutionary Party, founded by former President Rafael Correa.
Most polls show Noboa is leading, but it’s not enough to be on the threshold to avoid spills. Just like in 2023, the election is very likely to progress to the second round, pitting Novoa against Gonzalez.
The polls do not show other candidates who have been supported enough to challenge the frontrunners, but pre-election votes don’t always speak the whole thing. Novore himself was barely registered in the voter’s intention vote before the first round of 2023.
Who else is running?
There are a few familiar faces in the lineup. Yantopic, a right-wing businessman who ran in 2023, is once again competing, revising his policy to fight crime, or the iron fired or “Manodura” call.
Leonidas Iza, president of Konaye, the country’s powerful Indigenous Union, is also a return candidate. He is a prominent critic of former President Lasso and has campaigned on a platform of greater sovereignty and opportunity for the Indigenous peoples.
Another candidate could serve as a reminder of Ecuador’s struggle against violence.
In 2023, the presidential election wavered when anti-corruption candidate Fernando Villa Bishencio was shot dead after leaving the rally just before the vote. He was trying to highlight the relationship between organized crime and government corruption.
His former running mate Andrea Gonzalez will be in the race on Sunday.
What does the poll say about the Diet?
In the parliamentary race for control, Novoa and Gonzalez parties also lead the rest of the field.
Most polls in January showed that Noboa’s National Democrat Act (ADN) party would lead the Civic Revolution (RC) of Gonzalez with various margins. Only one vote found about three points of RC before ADN.
Currently, there are 137 spots in the Parliament, with the Civic Revolution holding the most seats out of the 48 parties. However, after Sunday’s election, the Parliament will expand to 151 seats, with Novoa’s party expected to earn a great deal.
What issues do voters most interested in?
Many issues have emerged as top priority in polls, including rising costs of living, lack of appropriate economic opportunities, and a series of power outages that have made the lives of the nation’s residents difficult.
However, a January poll by data company Communicaliza suggested that one issue takes priority over everything else: crime and anxiety. That outweighed the second-highest concern, the lack of employment opportunities, about 14 points.
“This is reflected in the post-search investigation that this is the number one concern,” Ivan Brisco, an expert on Latin American politics for the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.
Why did violence become such a problem in Ecuador?
Ecuador was once considered a safer and more stable country than the rest of South America. It has gained a reputation as an “island of peace” in an area known for its cocaine cultivation and human trafficking.
However, in recent years, an explosion of violence and organized criminal activity has shocked the country.
“Last year, Ecuador had 7,000 murders, with a population of 18 million, making it the highest murder rate in South America. And it was known for decades as a peaceful country. It’s in the area,” Brisco said.
“It sheds light on the inability of the state to respond, but raises the issue of the scale of corruption and therefore the state authorities’ accomplices in criminal ventures.”
Ecuador is located on the Pacific coast between Colombia and Peru, the world’s largest producer of cocaine.
In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, experts say drug trafficking groups are beginning to push into Ecuadorian territory and are trying to take advantage of the country’s ports.
The pandemic has also been devastated by Ecuador’s economy, rendering many young people unemployed and vulnerable to recruitment from criminal networks.
Novoa denounced his predecessor for allowing cocaine production to take root in Ecuador. In October, his government announced that coca production (drug production) had been detected on approximately 2,000 hectares (4,942 acres) of land.
Which solutions are proposed?
Voters have largely placed their faith in harsh solutions.
In April, for example, the country voted heavily in favor of reforms that officially formalize the role of military in public security and imposed harsher penalties for crimes such as drug trafficking.
Novore himself shows his willingness to suspend important civil liberties in the name of advancing security.
In January 2024, Noboa announced that the country was “at war” with criminal groups, expanding the role of military in law enforcement operations and declaring a state of intrinsic conflict.
So far, the results have been mixed. The murder rate was slightly soaked in 2024, but it’s well above pre-pandemic levels.
Abuse has also been revealed, raising questions about the military’s expanded power. In one case, surveillance footage appeared to show military trucks lure four young people in a port city in Guayaquil. Their burnt ruins were later discovered near a military base.
But Brisco said for the time being, Ecuadorian politics is ruled by harsh rhetoric and ideas in crime.
“No one would propose negotiations with criminal groups. That’s not the candidate’s agenda,” he said.
However, he added that security measures alone are not enough to address Ecuadorian crime roots.
“When you can’t leave your home due to a crime, you’ll want to respond to the state,” he said.
“However, in the long run, security-oriented policies such as military deployment tend to fail if they don’t involve corruption, socioeconomic inequality, or other more systematic, broad approaches dealing with criminal investigations. “
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