A huge sunspot group, roughly the same size as the sunspot that caused the largest solar storm in recorded history, has appeared on the Earth’s side of the Sun, and is now pointing directly at Earth. But don’t panic. Auroras and some technical disturbances are possible next week, but it seems unlikely that a new sunspot group will trigger a second Carrington event.
The complex, named AR 4294-4296, consists of two different magnetically entangled sunspot groups, AR 4294 and AR 4296. It first became visible on November 28, when it rotated to the Earth-facing side of the Sun at the western edge of our home star. But the dark spot was first spotted about a week ago by NASA’s Mars rover Perseverance, which was scouting the far side of the sun from Earth.
AR 4294-4296 is about the same size as the giant sunspot observed by British astronomer Richard Carrington in September 1859, which subsequently caused the Carrington event, the largest solar storm ever observed by humans. The image above, first shared by Spaceweather.com on December 2nd, shows the sunspot group alongside Carrington’s 19th century sketch of the giant. At first glance, the new sunspot group appears larger. But in reality, the scotoma covers an area of the Sun’s surface that is about 90% the size of a Carrington sunspot.
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Sunspots have the ability to cause powerful bursts of radiation, or solar flares, and release energy into space when invisible magnetic field lines become distorted or broken. These explosive explosions can cause temporary radio blackouts on Earth and trigger large, fast-moving plasma clouds, or coronal mass ejections (CMEs), on Earth. When this happens, it can cause disturbances in the Earth’s magnetic field, known as geomagnetic storms, which can interfere with electronic equipment and paint bright auroras in the night sky.
The new dark patch is “one of the largest sunspot groups in the past decade” and is capable of emitting supercharged X-class flares, the most powerful type in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s solar flare classification system, Spaceweather.com representatives recently wrote. If it blows and causes a CME, the resulting solar storm “will be geo-effectual,” they added.
The Carrington event caused a solar flare of estimated X45 magnitude in 1859, which remains on record, but there is geological evidence that even more powerful explosions occurred long before humans appeared. For context, the X45 flare is more than five times more powerful than October 2024’s X7 explosion, the most powerful solar flare of the past decade.
Recent simulations have shown that if a similarly powerful explosion were to impact Earth today, the radiation would destroy all satellites in Earth’s orbit. It can also wreak havoc on the ground and damage parts of the power grid. Experts estimate that the total damage will be well over $1 trillion.
If AR 4294-4296’s size is close to the sunspot that caused the Carrington phenomenon, that means a huge solar storm is likely, right? Well, yes and no.
Larger sunspots can cause more powerful solar flares. For example, the sunspot that caused the geomagnetic “superstorm” in May 2024 was more than 15 times wider than Earth. However, size is not everything when it comes to sunspots.
Whether a sunspot reaches its maximum explosive force is also related to the composition of the magnetic field and the frequency of explosions, meaning that some giant sunspots are completely harmless.
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According to Spaceweather.com, AR 4294-4296’s magnetic fields are highly entangled, meaning flares are possible, and the complex has already unleashed a potential X-class flare while still on the far side of the Sun. But despite this, experts say there are no clear signs of a superstorm comparable to the Carrington event occurring in the near future.
Scientists will be monitoring the latest giant creatures’ magnetic fields especially closely for signs of new activity. But if it spins past Earth without exploding, the giant dark spot would likely be large enough to complete more than one orbit around the sun, meaning it could return for a “second round” around Christmas.
The sun has been particularly active in recent years, as it is currently in the most active phase of its approximately 11-year solar cycle, known as solar maximum.
This has led to several recent X-class flares, including two consecutive explosions that produced a G4 (severe) geomagnetic storm on November 11-12. In fact, 2024 saw the most X-class flares in a single year since recent records began in 1996.
Many of these flares have caused geomagnetic storms on Earth, including the extreme disturbance in May 2024. The disturbance was the most powerful in 21 years and caused some of the most widespread aurora borealis in centuries.
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