Twenty-five years ago, Algore was on the final stretch of his US presidential election, just weeks away from the election that eventually slipped through his fingers despite winning the popularity poll. His platform includes ambitious climate action, positioning America as a natural leader in global environmental transition.
The irony of what has happened since then is not lost to him. “From a perspective 25 years ago, I would not have seen this as the most likely outcome,” Gore admits when asked about China’s emergence as the world’s leading force in the energy transition.
But Gore doesn’t lament the Chinese climate leadership celebrating someone stepping up while expressing their frustration that America has given away the field. As far as he is concerned, the planet doesn’t care which country will accuse him of sustainability, as long as someone is. What bothers him more is the sense that opportunity costs, American innovation and influence, could drive global progress if the country is not busy dismantling its own climate policy.
Goa and Lila Preston, a sustainability-focused investment firm, spoke with the editor about the ninth annual climate report early Monday morning. It comprehensively documents the set-off in US climate policy and China’s prominent rise, as well as what is called the world’s “first electrostate.”
We’ve now spent much of the conversation looking into what’s making the headlines. The growing appetite for rare earth minerals in the tech industry, what responsible mining looks like, how the demand for AI booms for large data centers will affect global energy consumption, and whether the launch of space industry rockets truly represents a positive positive for the Crimate goals that industry observers believe in. Below is an excerpt from that chat, edited for length and clarity. You can also listen to the full conversation using TechCrunch’s StrictlyVC Download Podcast (below).
We’ve been tracking these sustainability trends for years. Given the policy whiplash between the US administrations, should other countries stop relying on the US to guide the long-term global challenge?
Al Gore: There are big wheels bent in the right direction, and some of the big wheels bent in the opposite direction. The world is moving very powerfully. Looking back at the era of the Paris Agreement for 10 years, 55% of all energy investments were still fossil fuels, with only 45% in the energy transition. Now these numbers have more than a reversal. The trend is accelerating with 65% of funding being renewables and just 35% of fossils being raised.
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The United States has played an important role, but with the changing party domination, it will survive this set-off in the form of all these negative steps Trump has taken, as the world will benefit greatly from sustainable and consistent leadership from the United States. The rest of the world is moving forward, and even in the US, although at a slower pace, will continue to move forward.
The report suggests that China is becoming the world’s first “electro state,” while the US is abandoning the competition for clean technical leaders. Can you imagine this scenario 25 years ago?
Gore: From a 25-year-old perspective, I have to say no. This would not have been considered the most likely outcome. However, I was always impressed by the extent to which Chinese leaders listened carefully to their scientific community.
The story is now clearer. As repeated record droughts reduce hydropower capabilities, some local leaders began to feel concern that layoffs could continue, so they built coal plants and used them at less than 50%. Meanwhile, the solar breakout structure was amazing. They reached the goal of the sun six years earlier. This year, they have essentially opened three new 1 Gigawatt nuclear power plants equivalents daily in solar capacity for several months. It’s incredible.
Earlier this year, they informed the world that they no longer want to be judged about actual reductions, not carbon intensity measurements. That’s a clear signal. Because they don’t hold themselves to standards they don’t think they meet and surpass.
Speaking of coal, the EPA recently proposed to end the requirement for thousands of coal plants and refineries to report greenhouse gas emissions. What does that mean when you stop measuring the problem you are trying to solve?
Gore: That’s part of their obvious intention to eliminate the crisis by eliminating all the information that explains it. However, there are some improvements. The partner at Generation Investment Management is one of the leading seed funders for Climate Trace, which tracks real-time air carbon emissions.
Currently, we measure 99% of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. This is the largest 660 million point source emission site. We have them all in the US, the old cliches say you can only control what you measure, and we will continue to measure all important GHG pollution in the US
Lila Preston: We see traces of climate partnering with the private sector on supply chain visibility. Companies like Altana, one of our portfolio companies, partner with us to provide real-time assessment of supply chain risks and opportunities.
In January, President Trump announced a $500 billion Stargate project to build a massive AI data center that begins in Texas. Your report talks about the surge in electricity demand that threatens clean energy advances. Is there a way to pursue ambitious AI development without torpedoing climate targets?
Preston: This is the best system level issue we’ve ever had to work on. The massive surge in demand from around 65% from the US represents a shock to the system. Energy usage from data centers is today at 2%, and is expected to at least double by 2030. However, we believe that renewable energy, storage, and long-term geothermal heat can meet this demand.
On the other side is how AI applications across energy, transportation and agriculture can reduce global emissions. This is 6% to 10% per year by 2035. By 2027 there will be trillion gallons each year. This massive platform shift needs to be considered comprehensively.
Gore: We are beginning to supply clean baseload power to support decoupling of emission strength and calculated strength. Many of the biggest builders with new AI capacity realize that solar and battery cost benefits are so great that it makes sense to use this as an additional spurt for building solar and batteries. Many are also consumer companies that are committed to conveying that their user base remains committed to sustainability goals, despite this temporary surge in inflating power usage in data centers.
On the same topic, Elon Musk’s Xai reportedly operated unauthorized gas turbines for more than a year at a historically black neighborhood Memphis data center with air quality issues.
Gore: That’s definitely a big concern. My friends and former members of my southwest Memphis have already experienced many environmental injustice and are assaulted by these extra emissions from large methan turbine generators as they already have five times the risk of cancer compared to the national average to have a 97% black community.
They are coming from a successful fight to stop high-pressure oil pipelines from passing through communities and water sources. But as soon as it was blocked, the Tennessee legislature passed a law that said there are no communities, cities or counties that could not interfere with future fossil fuel infrastructure. This is an example of how, as I often said, the fossil fuel industry is better at capturing politicians than catching emissions.
They used political and economic forces to capture control of policy-making processes in too many jurisdictions in local, regional, national and in the case of the Trump administration and national politics. They also exploded plastic negotiations. Because it is their third largest market, petrochemists, who have used their power to prevent the world from limiting the amount of plastic particles that are absorbing into our bodies.
But the world is catching up to them, and people in communities like Memphis and elsewhere say, “Wait a second, I won’t take all this unfair burden here.”
It’s a big story that plastics grow without fading. Precious Metals is another big story of the year. This is because tariff threats highlight the need of the technology industry to make products. What is your stance about what hunting these materials means for our environment?
Gore: These materials must be and can be done responsibly and sustainably mined. Proactive efforts are required to eliminate abusive and harmful practices seen in some places. However, looking at the volume, it is a very small percentage compared to the damage caused by daily mining and fossil fuel extraction.
Preston: Use advanced modeling and AI to see innovation, reducing the burden on the landscape and community, while also sensing and targeting places where those materials will sit. It’s not perfect, but there have been a lot of progress in the last three to four years after alarm bells have risen globally that this needs to be done more sustainable.
While we talk about Tech, the space industry is booming. Sending more rockets also generates important carbon emissions. Do you think it should regulate emissions related to space launches or that the climate benefits of space technology should justify carbon emissions?
Gore: I have always been the view that the usefulness of Earth observation from space outweighs the harm that comes from the launch of space in a fair way.
Looking at this year’s report, what is the biggest reason for optimism and concern?
Gore: What continues to drive my optimism is the stable and even accelerated progress in all the solutions we need. They continue to be cheaper, and the ability of the fossil fuel industry to resist this transition is declining regularly. This transition cannot be stopped.
But the remaining question is whether this transition will be in time to avoid a negative turning point. Over the last few days we have received spectacular reports that the cold upwelling along the West Coast of South America has not happened for the first time this year, a Humboldt flow that is extremely important for the marine food chain.
I like Dawnbush’s Law. Things take longer than you think and then happen faster than they thought. I think we’ve now crossed that point, but we need to accelerate change. We have technology, deployment models, economics that favor us, and public opinion is ours. We need to accelerate the decline in our ability to pollute industries that resist it.
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