Tom Vasseur, Director of EUUSEW’s partner organization Cool Heating Coalition, and Bianca Bittencourt, Strategic Communications Coordinator, detail how Europe’s dependence on fossil gas imports exposes households to geopolitical shocks, creating an urgent need for faster investment in clean heating and energy independence.
Europe’s dependence on fossil fuel imports may seem like an abstract issue at first, but its impact is evident in households across the continent. Heating and hot water account for 77.6% of the energy use of an average household in the EU, with around a third of this being heated with gas. 1 By 2025, 90% of our country’s gas will be imported from third countries, creating vulnerability to energy coercion that could affect millions of households.
Diversifying gas suppliers or moving away from fossil fuels?
Historically, Europe’s main source of fossil gas was Russia. Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU reduced gas imports from Russia from 45% to 12%2. Recently, the EU adopted the REPowerEU regulation. The regulation aims to achieve the EU’s import diversification goals by permanently banning Russian fossil gas imports.
The current challenge is to replace gas imports and ensure Europe’s energy independence. This requires equally strong action on the other two pillars of the 2022 REPowerEU Plan: saving energy and accelerating the transition to clean energy. At present, Europe is likely to achieve only half of the heat pump deployment targets outlined in the latter of REPowerEU’s two pillars. This shortfall means fossil gas demand will be cut by 60% instead of 120% of Russia’s gas imports in 2024.
Adequate funding to achieve clean heat transition
A study carried out by LCP Delta for the Cool Heating Coalition found that at EU level there is a spending gap of €78 billion per year by 2050 to realize the transition to clean heat. Currently, the EU’s public and private sectors jointly cover only about half of that gap. 4
The good news is that Europe has many financing options to address this gap. For example, Europe currently subsidizes fossil fuels to the tune of around €111 billion a year, money that should be diverted to decarbonized and renewable energy solutions5. Furthermore, the EU should encourage business models like social leasing by addressing gaps in consumer protection, such as the Consumer Credit Directive, which does not necessarily cover social leasing schemes.
One of the most powerful tools for financing the transition to clean renewable energy heating and cooling is ETS2, which puts a price on emissions from buildings and road traffic. This would shift the market away from fossil fuels and directly fund the transition. Supporting the most vulnerable consumers through the Social Climate Fund. Member state treasuries are free to spend the remaining 75% of revenues on transition and social impact measures. In addition to this, this funding should be allocated to vulnerable households, going beyond the minimum legal requirements. This would help those most in need, reduce political pressure, and legitimize ETS2.
What we want: Strategic autonomy
Unfortunately, ETS2 was postponed for a year in December 2025, sending a terrible signal to the market for clean heat. There should be no further delays. Member States should use the extra time to support the switch to decarbonized renewable energy and affordable heating, address housing shortages and significantly reduce energy demand in Europe’s worst-performing homes.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, substantial progress has been made in increasing the EU’s energy independence. Facing a new fossil fuel price shock after the Middle East wars, Europe needs to prioritize reducing its geopolitical dependence and strategic vulnerabilities. We have the legal framework and measures to end our dependence on fossil fuels. All it takes is political will and the will to get it done.
This opinion editorial was produced in collaboration with European Sustainable Energy Week (EUSEW), the largest annual event dedicated to renewable energy and efficient energy use in Europe. #EUSW2026 is in its 20th year, once again bringing together a community of people interested in building a safe and clean energy future for generations to come.
Check out current calls and join.
References
Heating and cooling – European Commission REPowerEU – Phasing out energy imports from Russia – European Commission Renewable heating and cooling essential for Europe’s energy security – Offshore technologies How to finance Europe’s heating and cooling transition – Cool Heating Coalition Energy subsidies report shows progress in 2023 – European Commission
About the author
Tom Vasseur
Tom Vasseur is director of the Cool Heating Coalition, a group of 16 NGOs and think tanks working together towards decarbonised, renewable and affordable heating and cooling across Europe. He has been working for the Coalition since 2023 and regularly contributes to the overall clean heat and architectural space debate in Europe.
bianca bittencourt
Bianca Bittencourt is Strategic Communications Coordinator at the Cool Heating Coalition, managing external communications on decarbonizing heating and cooling in Europe. Previously, she led communications for Alliance4Europe’s Counter Disinformation Network and the European Startup Award for Mobility. Beyond her role with the Cool Heating Coalition, Bea is currently pursuing an MBA in Sustainability, Innovation, and Leadership at Tomorrow University.
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