PARIS, France – On Sunday, longtime French leader Marine Le Penn predicted he would secure up to 37% of the votes in the 2027 presidential election.
“The page has definitely changed,” said Frederic Dabi, director of the poll.
He saw the poll as a confirmation that Le Pen’s brand worked. For years she has tried to normalize her hard rights and distance it from Jean Marie Le Pen’s control. Jean Marie Le Pen is the late father who founded the National Front, a party that lived on political ties.
But on Monday, Marine Le Pen and her updated national rally were hit hard.
She was found guilty of embezzling European Union funds and disqualifying her from running for office for five years.
Le Pen is scheduled to appeal, but the verdict prevents her from participating in France’s 2027 presidential election.
“I’m very surprised in France.”
The decision of the Criminal Court in Paris shocked France.
Le Pen’s supporters have condemned the incident as a political attack, but her enemies are relieved to see the independence of the judicial system being envisaged.
“It was very surprising in France because it’s so rare that politicians are actually convicted. It happened, but it’s still very rare, especially at this level of infamy,” Baptist Colin, 29-year-old theatre producer in Lyon, told Al Jazeera.
In recent years, national gatherings by French initials, or voting for RNs, have become more typical across France, allowing Le Pen to appeal to voters by spinning a trial in her favour.
“I hope people understand their beliefs. Ultimately, it’s very easy. It’s misappropriation of funds,” Colin said. “I think the judges were totally fair. If you immerse yourself in the funding, you’re expected to be found guilty.”
The far right was immediately pushed back against the court’s ruling.
Le Pen’s 29-year-old student, Jordan Bardera, called her temporary sentence a “democratic scandal.”
“Le Pen’s line of defense is that it’s a scandal, something that was done intentionally, it’s a coup,” Colin said. “It’s going to be a cultural battle between people who say it’s scary and everyone else who thinks that belief is normal.”
Analysts said the verdict could push France into more political turmoil if the far right makes good use of the story.
“There’s a risk that she’s considered a martialist, like a victim to the system. She and her party will use this trial as a weapon,” Lim Sarah Arowan, a French researcher with a doctorate in public law, told Al Jazeera.
Le Pen’s party is running on the platform against globalization and immigration, driving stricter border control and reduced ecological policies.
The 56-year-old resonates with younger voters as he is now building up new faces like Bardella, the party’s president.
Valdera, is heir clear?
Alouane said that given the far right normalization, he fears that mainstream media and politicians could pass on LE Penn and RN’s unfair space to criticize the French legal system.
“Le Pen is a politician who has just been blamed by the judicial system for serious crimes, and she has already used one of the leading news networks to protect herself. “We need to focus on what is at risk these days, and we need to not give Le Pen leverage to use this whole thing to solidify her position and her party into the mainstream.”
Following the verdict, Le Pen can only do it in 2027 if she receives a more generous sentence, but in France the appeal process is slow.
“I don’t think it usually takes about two years to go to court,” Diane de Vinemont, a French journalist with a focus on politics and history, told Al Jazeera. “However, if Le Pen loses her complaint, RN could still say the court is corrupt and prevent her from running. And Valdera will be chosen, the heirs are clear.”
Bardella is considered a rising star in the RN and could step up to replace Le Pen as the party’s next presidential candidate if Le Pen is upheld.
“It’s just like what the party needs,” De Vinemont said. “Baldera has really mastered social media, and he’s young enough to have not had too many scandals yet.”
He helped the far right to win a significant portion of the French young voters. Two years later, the percentage of 18-24-year-olds who voted for RN in French parliamentary elections doubled.
“There’s hype around RN. Valdera is young and in Tiktok. There’s the idea that it’s cool to vote for RN, but before it’s considered old fashioned,” Colin pointed out.
If Le Pen promotes the case and succeeds in winning her appeal before the presidential election, she will be encouraged to claim that she is probably a revenge on her political agenda, the observer said.
“She could run on the platform, ‘They tried to put me on a political witch trial.’ And they failed because I was innocent,” De Vinemont said.
Judge Benedict de Perteis has already rebutted the idea.
“No one is involved in politics,” she said in a statement.
Colin said he hopes the party will suffer due to the verdict.
“I think it’s a catastrophe for her and the party,” he said. “I think Bardella is much more capable than Le Pen. He’s very young and he’s not used to this. Bardella hasn’t had much discussion yet.
The court’s ruling will not change Le Pen’s current role as a member of the French parliament, as President Emmanuel Macron did in June 2024.
If so, Le Pen will not be allowed to run again. This is a scenario where separate dissolution can be possible as the current division and Congress cannot pass the budget.
The verdict on Monday led Le Pen to join a club of other prominent French politicians accused of financial crimes.
Former President Nicholas Sarkozy awaits the verdict for accepting the illegal presidential contributions from Libyan leader Muammar Gadafi. Former Prime Minister François Phillon was found guilty of fraudulently hiring his wife as his wife when he was a member of Congress.
“There’s a judicial vibe against politicians. Personally, I think it’s great and it shows that the process is working, and we’re still in a democracy that’s still working,” Colin said.
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