The billionaire’s Mars mission claim comes despite SpaceX having experienced several failed test launches in recent months.
Elon Musk says he believes his Mars spacecraft is 50% likely to make his first free voyage to the Red Planet at the end of 2026, just two days after the retreat of his SpaceX company’s latest test flight.
Musk unveiled a detailed spaceship development timeline in a video posted online by the Los Angeles-based rocket company on Thursday.
The South African-born billionaire and SpaceX owner said his latest timeline to reach Mars depends on whether the craft can complete some challenging technical feats during testing, especially if it can complete post-release refueling operations in Earth’s orbit.
In a video on his social media platform X, Musk said his Starbase industrial facility and rocket launch facility in Texas were “gateways to Mars.”
“We are trying to develop the technology necessary to take humanity, civilization and life, as we know it on another planet for the first time in the 400 million years of Earth’s history,” he said.
The end of 2026 is when the slim windows open, offering the closest trip between Earth and Mars, as the planets line up around the Sun once every two years. This short distance takes 7-9 months for a spacecraft to pass.
The first flight to Mars carries a simulated crew consisting of Tesla-made humanoid optimizer robots. The human crew then continues with a second or third landing.
In the video, Musk said he believes SpaceX has a 50-50 chance to meet the 2026 deadline for its first mission. He added that if Starship wasn’t ready by then, SpaceX will try again before waiting another two years.
The announcement of the mask comes just after he confirmed his departure from President Donald Trump’s administration, following turbulent months of tensions that have left his various companies, including SpaceX and electric car maker Tesla.
Musk’s informal role, leading Trump’s government efficiency (DOGE), has put him in the crosshairs as he faces intense criticism to oversee what has been accused of accidentally cutting government programs.
In the face of stock prices and concerns from shareholders — especially at Tesla — Musk said this week that he will reduce his government’s role to focus on his private venture.
I missed the deadline
In 2016, Musk said he wanted to send less than Mars SpaceX vehicles to Mars as early as 2018, and launched its first crew mission targeting 2024.
However, Mercury’s entrepreneurial ambitions for interplanetary exploration have been repeatedly plagued by set-ups in recent years.
More recently, on Tuesday, Musk was scheduled to deliver a live webcast from Texas Starbase, following the spacecraft’s ninth test flight that night.
However, after the Starship was spun out of control and collapsed about 30 minutes after its release, and collapsed almost halfway through the flight path, the speech was cancelled without notice and failed to achieve some of its most important test goals.
According to Reuters news agency, the Megarocket reentered the Earth’s atmosphere earlier than it was scheduled for Wednesday and earlier than it was scheduled for Wednesday.
Posting to X after the flight failed, Musk said the tests had produced a lot of “good data to review” as they promised a faster launch “Cadence” for several next attempts.
There was also a failed launch in January – the craft exploded shortly after the liftoff, raining down parts of the Caribbean, forcing a commercial jet liner to course and March.
Musk, who spent billions of dollars on developing Starship, says the initiative is part of SpaceX’s plan to colonize Mars.
The company also worked with US government agency NASA to bring humans back to the moon in 2027 for more than half a century since astronauts last walked the moon in 1972.
These efforts are a stepping stone to launching NASA astronauts on Mars one day in the 2030s.
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