This week, waves of Ukrainian drones struck Moscow in preparation for the Russian capital’s most important national holiday in the country, the victory day.
Russia celebrates May 9th as the day of victory to mark the defeat of the Nazi forces in World War II. This day includes major military parades, with leaders of Russian allies often present.
But this year, preparations for the day are clouded by warnings from Ukrainian Voldimi Zelensky, who said Kiev could not guarantee the safety of foreign leaders attending the Moscow parade.
See below for Ukraine’s attack, victory day and why it matters.
What happened in Russia?
Moscow mayor Sergei Sobianin said Tuesday that Russia’s air defense system had fired down 19 drones flying towards Moscow from different directions. The drone was shot down for two consecutive nights, and Sobianin wrote in a post on the Telegram messaging app that there were no reports of injuries or damage, but the city’s airport was closed due to safety concerns.
Russian officials also reported that 17 drones were intercepted in the Briance area, and five more were intercepted in Kalga.
Russian President Vladimir Putin last week called for a 72-hour ceasefire to mark the opportunity from May 8th to May 10th.
Meanwhile, local leaders from several Ukrainian cities reported on Tuesday that Russia had carried out drone attacks on civilian targets.
Zelenskyy rejected this proposal. “This is more of a theatrical performance, because in two or three days it is impossible to develop a plan for the next step to end the war,” the Ukrainian president told a small group of journalists on May 2.
Instead, Ukraine wanted a 30-day ceasefire, which ultimately led to a permanent ceasefire, ending the war that Russia imposed on its small neighbors in a full-scale invasion in February 2022.
“The Russians are seeking a ceasefire on May 9th, and they fire in Ukraine every day. This is the irony of the best order,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram on Sunday.
Why is Ukraine attacking Russia?
Marina Milon, a postdoctoral researcher at King’s College London’s Defense Research Division, told Al Jazeera that the Ukrainian drone attacks were no surprise.
“Ukraine does not actually have any other plans of action as the battlefield situation does not support Ukraine,” Milon said, explaining that it is uncertain whether Ukraine will continue to receive support from the United States.
The United States has been Ukraine’s biggest ally throughout the war, but President Donald Trump and Washington’s allies have repeatedly called for a rethink of Washington’s military aid to send Kiev. In March, Trump announced a moratorium on military aid to Ukraine.
Milon added that Europe cannot support Kiev “to the extent that it needs to support Ukraine.” Ukraine is also experiencing a shortage of talent on the battlefield as soldiers abandon their troops.
The drone attack allows Ukraine to show that it still has the will to fight, Miron said. “The grand plan doesn’t make any major strategic changes.”
What is Victory Day?
The Victory Day is commemorated on May 9th in Russia and many other former Soviet countries. This day marks the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, also known as the Great Patriotic War in Russia. On the day, a large military parade passes through Moscow’s Red Square.
The war officially began in 1939 when Germany, led by Adolf Hitler, invaded Poland and cut its secret deal with the Soviet Union to divide its western neighbors with the Soviet Union. Britain declared war with Germany in its bilateral defense treaty with Poland.
However, in 1941, the Germans launched Operation Barbarossa, an invasion of the Soviet Union.
The Soviet Union faced millions of casualties and lost the most lives in World War II. During the war, the number of civilians and military deaths in the Soviet Union reached 24 million, including an estimated 8.7 million soldiers.
However, the Soviet Union also led a rebellion against Nazi Germany in May 1945 to march through Berlin to commemorate the end of the war in Europe. Japan surrendered only in August after the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The United States and its European allies will celebrate their victory on Europe Day, May 8th. In 2023, Zelensky signed the law and transferred Ukraine’s World War II victory into memory until May 8th.
For Putin, victory day is important. This is because since the start of the war with Ukraine, Putin has drawn similarities between the ongoing war and World War II. During a speech on the 2022 victory day, months after the war began, President Putin said that the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine “fighting for their homeland, no one will forget the lessons of World War II, wandering around, executioners, and the world for the Nazis.”
Who is expected to attend the Victory Day parade?
Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Louise Inacio Lula da Silva, Serbian President Alexander Vicz, Vietnamese President, Lam, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will be attending the victory day parade.
The attendance of these world leaders is also important to Putin as an empirical demonstration of the West’s failure to quarantine him despite the barrage of sanctions imposed on Russia during its war with Ukraine by the United States and its allies.
What did Ukraine threaten about that day?
“Our position is very easy for all countries traveling to Russia on May 9. We cannot be held responsible for what happens on the territory of the Russian Federation,” Zelensky told reporters, Ukrainian News Agency Interfax reported on May 3.
“They provide you with security. Therefore, we don’t give you any guarantees because we don’t know what Russia will do these days,” Zelensky said.
On the same day, Russia fought back on May 9 by warning Ukraine against violence. Dmitry Medvedev, former president and vice-chairman of the Russian Security Council, called on Zelensky to stop “verbal provocations,” saying, “May 10 will not come to the Kievu language in the case of substantial provocations on the day of victory.”
Can Ukraine attack Moscow on May 9th?
Despite the presence of leaders like Xi and Lula, that could not be ruled out, experts said.
“As far as Russia’s V-Day is concerned, it is very likely that Ukrainian military intelligence will do something,” researcher Milon added that it is unclear what the scale or location of this action by Ukraine is. “There’s a pattern where things are usually happening around the May celebration.”
In early May 2023, Russia said its defense system had blocked a drone attack on the Kremlin Citadel, near Putin’s residence. “We see these actions as planned terrorist laws and as attempts in the life of the President on the eve of victory day.
On May 8, 2023, Kiev said Russia launched a drone with a Ukrainian target and killed four people. It said that the air defense defeated Kamikaze Shahed Drones, made in Iran.
What is the current state of war?
Trump had declared that he would negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine along the trajectory of the presidential election. About a month after he took office, which began in February, the Trump administration held several meetings separately with representatives from Russia and Ukraine, attempting to mediate the deal.
After several meetings and exchanges, all aspects were able to access the same page, announcing a 30-day ceasefire on attacks on Russia and Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on March 19, and on March 25, it made a deal in the Black Sea, halting the military use of commercial vessels and the use of force in the Black Sea.
However, since then, both sides have exchanged accusations of violating the terms of those contracts.
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