Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan and India have continued to engage in war rhetoric, trading fires across Control (LOC), the de facto border of Kashmir on April 22, days after the Pahargam attack, in which 26 civilians were killed in Kashmir, was killed by India on 22 April.
Since then, senior members of Pakistan’s government and military authorities have held multiple press conferences claiming they have “reliable information” that India’s military response is imminent.
This is not the first time that two largest countries in South Asia (with over 1.6 billion people, more than a fifth of the world’s population) have been under the shadow of a potential war.
At the heart of their longtime hostility is the status of the picturesque valley of Kashmir, in which India and Pakistan fought three of the four previous wars. Since becoming independent from British rule in 1947, both countries have controlled a portion of Kashmir, and China has controlled another portion of it, but they have continued to assert it entirely.
So, what is the conflict in Kashmir? Also, why have India and Pakistan continued to fight for nearly 80 years since their independence?
What’s the latest tension?
India implies that it believes Pakistan may be indirectly supporting the attack on Pahargam. Both countries are engaged in strict diplomatic swipes on each other, including cancellation of visas for each other’s citizens and recall diplomatic staff.
India has suspended participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, a water use and distribution agreement with Pakistan. Pakistan threatened to leave the Shimura Agreement, signed in July 1972, seven months after Pakistan decisively lost the war in 1971 that led to the creation of Bangladesh. The Shimra Agreement has since formed the foundation for India-Pakistan relations. It outlines its commitment to administer the LOC and resolve conflicts through peaceful means.
On Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Pakistan Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif and Indian Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar to urge both countries to work together to “eliminate tensions and maintain peace and security in South Asia.”
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegses called Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Thursday to condemn the attack. “I provided strong support for myself. We stand with India and its great people,” writes Hegus in X.
What is at the heart of the Kashmir conflict?
Located northwest of the Indian subcontinent, the region spans 222,200 square kilometers (85,800 square miles) and 13 million people live in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir in India’s managed Jammu and Kashmir.
The population is overwhelmingly Muslim. Pakistan controls the northern and western parts, namely Azad Kashmir, Gilgit and Baltistan, while India manages the southern and southeastern parts, including the Kashmir Valley and its largest cities, Srinagar, Jammu and Ladakh.
The end of British colonial rule and the division of British India in August 1947 created the majority of Muslims Pakistan and Hindu majority of India.
At the time, princely countries like Jammu and Kashmir were given the option to join either country. The Muslim population is nearly 75%, and many in Pakistan believed that the region would naturally participate in the country. After all, Pakistan was created under Muhammad Ali Jinnah as a home for Muslims, but the majority of Muslims remained as India after Mahatma Gandhi and the first Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru returned to the country where he remained in the country.
Kashmir’s Maharaja initially sought independence from both countries, but later chose to join India after Pakistan’s invasion, causing the first war between 1947 and 1948.
Nevertheless, both countries continue to make claims to the entire region, including China-controlled Aksai jaw, in the east.
What caused the first India-Pakistan war in 1947?
The dominant Hindu Maharaja in Kashmir was Hari Singh, whose ancestors ruled the region in 1846 as part of an agreement with the British.
At the time of the partition, Singh initially sought to maintain Kashmir’s independence from both India and Pakistan.
By then, however, a rebellion against his rule by Pakistani residents in parts of Kashmir had erupted. Pakistani armed groups supported by the newly formed government of the country invaded and took over the region.
Sheikh Abdullah, the most prominent Kashmiri leader of the day, opposed the attack supported by Pakistan. Harisin appealed to India for military assistance.
The Nehru government intervened in Pakistan on the condition that the Maharaja would sign a joining tool that fused Jammu and Kashmir with India. In October 1947, Jammu and Kashmir became officially part of India, with New Delhi taking control of the Kashmir Valley, Jammu and Ladakh.
India accused Pakistan of being an invader of the conflict – accusations denied by Pakistan – robbing the UN of the matter in January 1948. Almost 80 years later, no referendums have been held. This is the source of Kasimiris’ dissatisfaction.
The first war over Kashmir finally ended with an unmediated ceasefire, and in 1949 the two countries officially made the ceasefire under an agreement signed by Pakistan’s then capital, Karachi. The new line split Kashmir between Indian and Pakistani control parts.
How did the situation change after the 1949 agreement?
By 1953, Sheikh Abdullah had established the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and won state elections in India-controlled Kashmir.
However, his growing interest in seeking independence from India led to arrests by Indian authorities. In 1956, Jammu and Kashmir were declared the “integral” parts of India.
In September 1965, less than 20 years after independence, India and Pakistan once again went to war across regions.
Pakistan wanted to support the Kashmir cause and incite a local uprising, but the war ended in a deadlock, with both sides agreeing to an unsupervised ceasefire.
How did China get some of Kashmir?
The Aksai jaw region, northeast of the region, is at an altitude of 5,000 meters (16,400 feet), and throughout history it was an inaccessible territory that sat on the border between British India and China from the 19th and early 20th centuries.
It was part of the kingdom that Kashmir’s Halicin inherited as a result of a deal with the UK in 1846. Until at least the 1930s, the maps of China also recognized Kashmir as south of the Alda Johnson Line, where Kashmir marked the northeastern boundary of Kashmir.
Since 1947, since Singh’s joining India, New Delhi considered Aksai Chin to be part of its territory. However, by the early 1950s, China – now under communist control – had built a 1,200 km (745 miles) highway connecting Tibet with New Jiang and ran through Aksai Chin.
India had not noticed – bleak areas had not been a security priority up until then. In 1954, Nehru called for the officialization of the borders according to the Alda Johnson Line.
However, China claimed that the British had never discussed Alda Johnson’s line and that Aksai Chin belonged to it under the alternative map. But most importantly, China already had boots on the ground of Aksai Chin for the highway.
Meanwhile, Pakistan and China also differed in who controlled what in parts of Kashmir. But by the early 1960s they had reached an agreement. China gave up on the pastures that Pakistan wanted, and in return Pakistan gave away thin slices of northern Kashmir to China.
India claims that the transaction is illegal as all of Kashmir belonged to it, according to the 1947 method of subscribing.
Return to India and Pakistan: What happened next?
Another war continued in December 1971. This time, it was known as East Pakistan, following a popular uprising by Indian-supported Bengali nationalists against Pakistan’s rule. The war led to the creation of Bangladesh. More than 90,000 Pakistani soldiers have been captured prisoners by India.
The Simla agreement converted the ceasefire into loc. This was virtually not an internationally unrecognised border, but once again left Kashmir’s status in question.
However, after India’s decisive victory in 1971, amid the growing political influence of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in the 1970s, the 1970s Abdullah waived his demands for a referendum and Kashmiri right to self-determination.
In 1975 he signed an agreement with Gandhi, allowing India-controlled Kashmir to join India, while maintaining a semi-autonomous position under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. He later served as prime minister of the region.
What led to a new drive for Kashmir’s independence in the 1980s?
As bonds grew between the National Congress Party of Abdullah and the dominant Indian National Conference of India, the frustration between India-controlled Kashmiris felt that the socioeconomic situation had not improved in the region.
Separatist groups like the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front, founded by Rose’s Makboor Bhatt.
India’s democratic claims in Kashmir were filled with the face of increased support for armed groups. The turning point was the election to the state assembly in 1987, where we saw Abdullah’s son Farooq Abdullah come to power, which was widely seen as highly integrated to protect popular anti-Indian politicians.
Indian authorities have launched a severe crackdown on separatist groups who claimed New Delhi was supported and trained by Pakistan’s military intelligence. Pakistan consistently provides only moral and diplomatic support, supporting Kashmiris’ “right to self-determination.”
In 1999, a conflict broke out in Kargil, where Indian and Pakistani forces fought to control strategic heights along the LOC. India eventually regained its lost territory and its pre-conflict status quo has been restored. This was the third race over Kashmir – Kargil is part of Ladakh.
How has tensions over Kashmir escalated since then?
The following year, multiple ceasefires were signed, gradually reducing direct conflict. However, India has significantly increased its military presence in the valley.
Tensions reignited in 2016 after the murder of Burhan Wani, a popular separatist figure. His death led to an increase in violence in the valley, and fire exchanges more frequently along the LOC.
The major Indian-controlled attacks in Kashmir in 2016, including Patankot and Uri people, targeted Indian troops that denounced armed groups supported by Pakistan.
The most serious escalation took place in February 2019 when a convoy of Indian paramilitary personnel was attacked in Pulwama, killing 40 soldiers and taking both countries to the brink of war.
Six months later, the Indian government unilaterally abolished Article 370 under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, stripping Jammu and Kashmir of their semi-autonomous status. Pakistan has condemned the move as a violation of the SIMLA deal.
The decision led to widespread protests in the valley. India deployed between 500,000 and 800,000 soldiers, blocked the area, shutting down internet services and detaining thousands of people.
India claims that Pakistan blames the ongoing crisis in Kashmir. Pakistan has denounced the hosting, fundraising and training of Pakistan-based armed groups that have been claiming responsibility for multiple attacks in India-controlled Kashmir for decades. Some of these groups have been accused of attacking other parts of India, the US and others. For example, at least 166 people were killed in three days during an attack on Mumbai, India’s financial capital.
Pakistan continues to denial that it promotes violence in India-controlled Kashmir and instead points to widespread resentment among locals and accuss India of imposing harsh, undemocratic control on the region. Islamabad says it only supports Kashmir’s separatism diplomatically and morally.
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