Research on “oracle bones” reveals a climate disaster that caused social chaos in China 3,000 years ago

A sharp population decline during the decline of China’s Shang dynasty more than 3,000 years ago was likely the result of an increase in deadly typhoons and related weather events, a new study combining ancient documents, archaeological evidence and paleoclimate modeling finds.

It is highly likely that these coastal typhoons caused catastrophic weather phenomena such as the massive floods that hit China’s Central Plains, also known as the “cradle of Chinese civilization.” The area was home to a dynasty called the Shang, which ruled the Yellow River valley from 1600 to 1046 BC. The Shang Dynasty is known for having the earliest evidence of writing, in the form of divination texts inscribed on “carapace bones” made from turtle shells and cow shoulder bones. Additionally, tens of thousands of bronze, ceramic, and jade artifacts have been unearthed in the Shang capital, present-day Anyang City, revealing the dynasty’s wealth and power before its overthrow by the Zhou people.

In a study published Wednesday (March 4) in the journal Science Advances, researchers investigated whether extreme weather events in inland China around the time of the collapse of the Shang dynasty may have contributed to cultural changes. Researchers correlated information from shell bones and ruins with paleoclimate models and found that an intensified typhoon and related weather phenomena may have been responsible.

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The researchers first counted weather-related descriptions in more than 55,000 oracle bone scripts from 1250 BC to 1046 BC, the last two centuries of the Shang Dynasty. The oracle bones contained more divination about upcoming heavy rains and water-related disasters during the middle period of this period, suggesting the Yin society’s growing concern about extreme rainfall events in the Central Plains, the researchers said in the study.

The Shang Dynasty was not the only dynasty in what is now central China to experience population decline. The research team examined archaeological data on flood layers in the Chengdu Plain, southwest of the Central Plains. Chengdu was contemporaneous with the Shang and occupied by the Shu Kingdom, which lasted until 316 BC. They found evidence of flood-damaged buildings dating to 950 BC and flood-destroyed embankments from 500 BC. Additionally, the number of ruins on the Chengdu Plains decreased and became concentrated in relatively high geographical locations, suggesting that the people relocated to higher ground.

The researchers’ paleoclimate modeling showed that northward typhoon activity intensified between 1850 and 1350 BC, affecting the Yin region of the central plains, while westward typhoon activity intensified between 850 and 500 BC, affecting the Shu region of the Chengdu plains.

“What was notable here was an intensification of typhoon activity,” the researchers said, which may have caused widespread inland flooding, leading to population declines and social changes in the Central Plains and Chengdu Plains. “Intensified typhoon activity had an unexpected and disastrous impact on interior China during the Bronze Age,” the researchers wrote.

However, climatic conditions in the region were highly variable, and the researchers noted that other climate-related hazards may have contributed to cultural instability in Bronze Age China. In particular, droughts caused by El Niño-like conditions, which struck the central plains around 1350 BC, may have disrupted the culture, just as the prolonged drought led to the collapse of many Mayan cities.

Although researchers are not sure exactly how ancient climate affected civilizations in China’s interior, they suggested that extreme weather events caused by typhoons were as much of a concern in the past as they are today. But by integrating archaeological evidence, oracle script, and paleoclimatic proxies, this study reveals for the first time a link between coastal typhoon activity, extreme inland rainfall, flooding, and social change around 1050 BC, the researchers wrote.

Live Science reached out to the study authors for comment, but did not receive a response by the time of publication.