The Great Lakes Region generally rated it as at the top of the list of the most climate-resilient regions in the United States. The locations in the northern inland, mitigating climates and abundant freshwater supply give a great advantage over the rest of the country where extreme heat and droughts quickly lead to regular havoc. Beyond that, it has become one of the most food-secure regions in the country as it is closest to some of North America’s most productive farmland. It is the national leader in renewable energy production, particularly wind and hydropower. The risk of major natural disasters is low. The list goes on and on.
It is believed by some that the region’s reputational resilience factor retains the key to the region’s economic revival. As people and businesses seek evacuation from increasingly expensive and disaster-hit parts of the United States, the mindset is drawn to the relative affordability and disaster resistance of the Midwest. This redistribution is also believed to help ease the country’s established housing problems as people return to depopulated and “overbuilding” cities in the north. The Great Lakes cities of Buffalo, New York and Duluth, Minnesota are on extreme opposite sides of the Great Lakes system, both claiming to be the country’s top affordable climate change for these reasons.
However, the new “Cool Is Cool” marketing hook has a promise wrapped in a shorter, mild winter veil, potentially downplaying the highly realistic climate challenges the region faces. More than this, they may portray an unrealistically optimistic future for a region that is still struggling with decades of economic dislocation and population loss.
Northern Exposure
Under the hype, the region faces both potential and very realistic climate-related issues. Many of these are related to the ecological vulnerability and volatility of the lake itself, and include 20% of the world’s fresh water surface.
First of all, decades of invasion of exotic species introduced into the Great Lakes by marine ships continue to dramatically change the ecology of the lake. Temperature is expected to accelerate the cycle of species inheritance and exchange. Perhaps the most feared invaders are prolific, gluttonous Asian car that has long threatened to infringe Lake Michigan from the Chicago Sanitation and Ship Canal, which links the Great Lakes to the Mississippi River via Illinois’ DePlains River. Carp invasion into Lake Michigan is highly feared due to its control over aquatic food chains.
Other threats to the lake come from their continued pollution, which still presents a major problem, although much mitigated from the infamous 1970s when Lake Erie was declared “dead.” More recently, much of the contamination is due to “astigmatic” agricultural runoff, as well as from regular public sewerage systems overflows during the increasing heavy rains caused by aging systems that combine rainwater and sewage. Milwaukee, Cleveland and Chicago have invested heavily in huge underground tanks and tunnel systems to mitigate the problem, but these projects are so expensive and almost invisible that they are difficult to sell. They are also not all treatments. Today’s storms pack a much wet punch, and the increase in water volume causes sewage on the streets and in the basements before reaching the tunnel.
From the depth
An even bigger problem facing the lake is the wild shaking of the depths of the water. The lake recorded some of its highest and lowest values in the period in the years from 2013 to 2020. Low lake levels are attributed to evaporation caused by higher air temperatures, strong winds and lack of ice cover during winter. High lake levels are associated with increased rainfall and runoff intensity within the Great Lakes basin. Both conditions cause harm: the former causes recreation and transportation, and the latter causes coastal erosion.
As a result, cities along the Great Lakes are adopting a combination of coastline hardening and retreat to address the growing erosion problem. The city of Milwaukee, for example, is pursuing federal funds to build a portion of its “living breakwater.” This is a more naturalized reef that strengthens the main section of the near six miles of breakwater system that separates Lake Michigan’s outdoors and its inner port. In 2020, Marquette, Michigan was forced to relocate major sections of inland inland due to repeated washouts. Illinois is experimenting with creating two artificial offshore reefs near Chicago to dissipate the forces of waves eroding nearby beaches and bluffs.
The Great Lakes are compressed and compressed
The combination of unpredictable lake levels, sustained droughts, and political moments filling current facilities has renewed concerns about future attempts to suck up the waters of the Great Lakes to supply arrier parts of the United States to supply more lake contracts for the Great Lakes. Surrounded by federal law in 2008, there is a frightening fear that the compact could be overturned in the future, pose as a national climate emergency. This unforeseen situation seems quite far away, but paranoia in particular is growing.
The only repurposed repurpose to date is the compact suburb of Wisconsin, Waukesha County, which spans the Great Lakes basin, where its depleted groundwater supply is contaminated with radium. Meanwhile, the city of Chicago has agreed to use a compact and grandfather clause in favour of Illinois to supply Michigan water to the city of Joliet, which is outside the Great Lakes basin, under the same basis. Communities within the basin have long been wary of similar “trickles” that could turn out to be ferocious.
A fantastic heaven
The risk of natural disasters that grab the main headlines is clearly low, but the Great Lakes region is also not immune to them. Comprehensive smoke from the Canadian wildfires in 2022, with Miles’ long algae that caused a water emergency in Toledo in 2014 and the infamous 1995 Chicago heatwave that killed more than 600 people, as a star reminder that the area has not violated such a disaster.
In fact, in June this year, cities in Minneapolis and Milwaukee registered the worst air quality in the world in a row. This is the result of smoking from a wildfire from Canada. And while it is not as unaffected by extreme heat, wildfires, and the long-term effects of permanently submerged coastlines as in other parts of the country, preparations to address slower issues like water depletion, or further degradation of already old infrastructure, may be behind in comparison to more vulnerable coastal cities. This is because disasters affecting the latter are often more psychologically shaking, resulting in accelerated adaptation plans.
Given the decline in winter snowfall in many parts of the region, it is expected that the risk of an unusual, life-threatening blizzard, due to its intuitive launch, will actually be higher due to Warner’s temperature and moisture-rich atmosphere. Midwest regions, along with much of the central part of the country, can even experience more extreme cold days due to stalled polar water vortices.
Ultimately, whether the region manifested as a future climate retreat may not depend on the natural benefits of geography or accidents. Equally importantly, the Great Lakes cities must contest other issues that have overwhelmed them over the years. Decent job shortages and failed schools. Their economic strategy is more comprehensive and innovation-based, and needs to reach far beyond trying to attract a hot bitcoin mine with the promise of “free” surrounding cooling. The region was behind schedule to reach the challenges of economic globalization. I can’t afford to be satisfied now.
Greg Frislam is the principal of Kendich Keyst Collaborative, a Texas-based national planning and economic development consultant. He has worked extensively in Texas and in the United States.
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