There is a lot of optimism in Syria. The unexpected decision by US President Donald Trump to lift sanctions on the country, announced in Riyadh on Tuesday, is a relief for Syrians. They hope that the move will reintegrate Syria into the global economy and bring much needed investments to a country that is about to recover from more than 50 years of dynasty family control.
The impact of Trump’s statement said Syria will be a “opportunity of greatness” in Syria after Bashar al-Assad’s capsization, but it has had almost immediate effects as the Syrian pound strengthened by about 25% against the US dollar, boosting the country suffering through economic hardships.
“Sansions in Syria represent a fundamental turning point,” Economist and banking expert Ibrahim Nafi Kushji told Al Jazeera. “The Syrian economy could move from interaction with developing countries to integration with more developed economies, and significantly restructure trade and investment relations.”
Complex sanctions
The announcement could lead to immediate progress, but there are still blocks to stumble in removing sanctions, analysts and experts told Al Jazeera.
US sanctions on Syria date back to 1979, where the country was under the iron grip of President Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, and was designated as a “national sponsor of terrorism.” During that time, additional sanctions have been imposed on the state, and previous relationships with al-Qaeda have been consequences for individuals associated with both the administration and the opposition, including current President Ahmed Al-Shara.
“There’s an entire building in a complex range of sanctions,” Vittorio Maresca di Serracapriola, an analyst at Karam Shaar Advisory Limited, a consulting firm focusing on the political and economics of the Middle East, told Al Jazeera.
Analysts said Trump could eliminate certain sanctions through an executive order, but that some “foreign terrorist organizations” (FTO) designations could be removed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, other sanctions may be more complicated than ending.
According to Maresca Di Serracapriola, there are a series of export controls, executive orders targeting the banking sector, and actions passed by the US Congress.
“It’s a huge moment for this country,” Maresca di Celllacapriola said. “Of course, sanctions are such a technical and complex tool, so it’s still unclear how we can implement what the US government has promised.”
There are also questions about the timeline. According to the United Nations, the economic situation for many Syrians is dire, with 90% of the population in poverty and around 25% unemployed. New Syrian authorities are under extreme economic pressure, but sometimes they are struggling to demonstrate their authority and provide security across the country.
Trump’s decision will provide a welcome reprieve, but Syrians may have to wait for sanctions relief to come into effect. Analysts said the change would take place over time and could take up to a year before “specific results” can be seen.
Sanctions relief alone is not enough. Analysts noted that Syria still needs bank reform to comply and resign from the international watch list. It also requires incentives from the US and other international stakeholders to build trust among private investors looking to invest in Syria’s future.
“Achieving long-term growth requires implementing internal economic reforms, including improving the business environment, increasing economic transparency and developing the production sector. “While lifting sanctions in Syria is the first step towards restructuring the economy, reform policies focused on sustainable development and global economic integration to ensure actual productive recovery.”
Trump meets Alshara
For months, all of Syrian new leadership, analysts and international actors have said there is a dire need for sanctions relief. However, the US has previously taken an inflexible stance towards Alshara’s government due to its perceived links with violence and armed groups.
However, regional authority such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Torkiye have developed strong ties with the new government in Damascus. Before Trump’s declaration on Tuesday, analysts told Al Jazeera they didn’t think Syrian sanctions relief was high on the agenda that the US and Gulf countries visited during their three-count tour.
The United States has taken a cautious and contradictory approach to Syria’s new authority since the collapse of Assad’s regime on December 8th.
On March 9, Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused the new Syrian government of failing to prevent sectarian violence and genocide in the country’s coastal regions. But then, three days later, Rubio praised the agreement between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian central government in Damascus.
Previously, the US provided Syria with a list of requests that include the destruction of remaining chemical weapons, cooperation on “counter-terrorism” and the removal of foreign fighter jets from senior roles in the new government or military. There was also a proposal that Syria might throw a Trump Tower deal in Damascus, and Trump wanted Syria-Israel relations before bailing out the sanctions.
But by Tuesday evening, everything had changed. Trump has announced that it will remove sanctions against Syria without any conditions.
“The key emphasis here is that it’s not something between the US and Syria, but a Saudi Arabian deal,” says Rob Gaist Pinfold, lecturer in defense studies at King’s College in London.
Then on Wednesday morning, Trump and Alshara met for more than 30 minutes in the presence of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Speaking to an Air Force reporter on his way to Doha, Trump called Alshara “a young, attractive man. A tough guy. A strong past. A very strong past, a fighter.”
After the talks, the White House released a list of issues Trump had discussed with Alshara. They included some of the US’s previous demands on Syria, including foreign fighter jets and “anti-terrorism” cooperation. However, Trump also recognised Israel and raised Syria, taking over the ISIL detention centre in northern Syria.
“These do not seem to be prerequisites, but you can slow the lifting down. [of sanctions]”Natasha Hall, a senior fellow at the Middle East Program in the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Al Jazeera.
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