The race to expand UK offshore wind capacity is flowing into choppy waters.
A new industry report warns that despite having the world’s largest pipeline of projects, the UK is unlikely to achieve its 55 Gigawatt (GW) target in 2030.
Bottlenecks in ports, vessels and supply chains mean that just 43 GW is realistically achievable, threatening the country’s position as a global clean energy leader and questioning the ambitions of net-zero.
The dangers of offshore wind targets in the UK
The UK government has pledged to generate 55 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030.
However, according to the EIC’s UK and Europe offshore wind report, only 43 GW can be achieved within that time frame.
Floating winds, considered important to deep water, are particularly limited as they are likely to have only 818 megawatts (MW) installed by 2030.
Despite the vast 96.4 GW pipeline under development, only seven of the 82 planned projects reached final investment decisions (FID).
The report warns that without prompt action on investments, permits and port upgrades, the UK risks lacking targets.
Infrastructure bottlenecks hinder progress
At the heart of the challenge is infrastructure. Of the approximately 80 expert offshore installation vessels in Europe, only five can handle the next generation of 14-15 MW turbines.
UK projects are competing with continental neighbours for access to these limited assets, creating delays and pushing costs.
There are also major tripping blocks on the port. Upgrades usually take 6-10 years to transition from permit to full operation.
That timeline is misaligned as a deadline for a UK project. This means that many developments could stall unless capacity expands urgently.
The EIC emphasizes that the Future Difference (CFD) auction round, the government’s main grant scheme for low carbon electricity, is too late to fill the gap. Allocation Round 8 scheduled for 2026 is outside the 2030 delivery window.
Even the AR7 round, where results are expected in 2025-26, will not be able to accelerate progress quickly without parallel investments in ports, grid connections and supply chains.
The coming wave of decommissioning adds pressure
The UK’s offshore wind sector also faces the challenge of replacing aging assets. Decommissioning is scheduled for the second half of the 2020s.
Among them is RWE’s Scroby Sands Wind Farm off Great Yarmouth, which is scheduled to retire between 2027 and 2031. Larger sites such as the London Array with 175 turbines are expected to approach 2038.
These decommissioning projects could compete with the new development of the same limited vessels, ports and funding pools, creating a double narrowing for the UK offshore wind infrastructure.
European context: shared challenges
The UK’s difficulties are part of the wider European photographs. The continent is home to a 411 GW offshore pipeline spanning 386 projects, with wind winds accounting for 37% of future capacity.
However, 84% of these projects are in the planning or feasibility stage. In other words, most new gigawatts will not be realized until 2030 or later.
For example, Germany has 31.1 GW in development, but it is unlikely to achieve its 30 GW 2030 target, with only 21.6 GW expected to be delivered. Auction reforms and “negative bidding” strategies have created price pressures that risk further delaying progress.
In contrast, France and Norway are promoting floating winds by awarding the world’s first grant for commercial-scale floating projects in 2024.
EU policy response
To address these constraints, the European Union has launched several policy measures. Wind power packages, Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), and Clean Industrial Deal are intended to speed up permitting, auction reform and expansion.
Under the NZIA, at least 30% of auctioned capabilities must be awarded on non-price criteria such as sustainability, supply chain resilience, and job creation.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) is supporting these efforts at 6.5 billion euros under wind manufacturer guarantees and 250 million euros for medium-sized green manufacturers. Major port upgrades are already planned for Esbjerg, Cuxhaven, Cork and Bilbao to alleviate bottlenecks.
Global competition: China is moving forward
Beyond Europe, global competition adds another layer of pressure. Chinese manufacturers currently produce offshore turbines on a scale of four times the European capacity. This is 82 GW per year compared to 20 GW.
With companies such as Mingyan, which include plans to manufacture 18.8 MW turbines in Italy, moving to Europe, the report warns of a repeating trajectory of the solar industry, where Europe has become almost entirely dependent on Chinese imports.
UK offshore wind leadership is at risk
Despite these challenges, the UK is the offshore wind leader in Europe and has operational capabilities of 15.6 GW. That’s far surpassing Germany’s 9 Golden Week and the Netherlands’ 5.5 Golden Week.
Overall Europe accounts for 43% of the world’s offshore wind capacity, except for China, where last year, which added 2.7 GW.
However, the EIC warns that the UK risks losing momentum unless urgent measures are taken to increase port capacity, secure supply chains and align auction schedules with project timelines.
The report concludes that without coordinated investment and political will, the UK could miss out on its offshore-style ambitions for 2030.
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