India’s quick commerce market is booming, with demand more than doubling for some players. But Flipkart and Amazon’s push for faster delivery has heightened risks in an already crowded space where profitability remains under pressure.
Flipkart, one of India’s largest e-commerce players, entered quick commerce later than local rivals such as Blinkit, Swiggy and Zepto. However, according to UBS, the number of dark stores (online shopping fulfillment centers) reached more than 800 this week, and TechCrunch found that the number is on track to double by the end of 2026.
The expansion comes as India’s quick commerce sector enters a more competitive phase. This tension is reflected in recent developments, such as the departure of Swiggy’s co-founder this week, as companies reassess their strategies amid rising competition and costs.
The Walmart-owned company made its quick commerce debut with Flipkart Minutes in August 2024, offering delivery across all categories in as little as 10 minutes. Since then, the field has expanded rapidly. Bernstein said in a report earlier this week that more than 6,000 dark stores are currently operating, leading to significant overlap and increased competition among players in major cities.
Beyond major cities
Bernstein said Flipkart’s network in India remains smaller than market leader Blinkit, which has more than 2,200 dark stores. However, Flipkart is betting on expanding beyond major cities to fuel growth. This differs from Blinkit, which plans to expand its dark stores to 3,000 stores by 2027 while focusing on the top 10 cities.
“Flipkart has the DNA of Walmart,” said Satish Meena, founder of Gurugram-based consumer insights firm Datum Intelligence. “Walmart’s DNA has always been to expand the market and the overall opportunity that we can control.”
Flipkart is already gaining traction outside of big cities, with 25% to 30% of its quick commerce orders coming from small towns, people familiar with the matter told TechCrunch. Orders per dark store also increased by about 25% from the previous month.
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However, quick commerce growth remains concentrated in large cities. Bernstein said the bulk of demand continues to be driven by large cities, with an accelerating push into smaller towns, where high population densities support faster deliveries and better use of dark stores.
This dynamic also supports profitability. There are more than 3,800 dark stores in India’s top eight cities run by five major companies, of which about 3,600 have the potential to turn a profit, Bernstein said.
“Metro markets are clearly more profitable because they have higher returns and higher throughput,” said Karan Taurani, executive vice president at London-based investment banking and brokerage firm Elara Capital. “This business is all about increasing throughput, and so far that’s primarily coming from the metro market.”
Still, some analysts see long-term opportunities beyond the big cities. “Non-metros (small towns) could see a surge as companies expand beyond grocery stores and offer a wider range of items more quickly,” said Satish Meena of Datum. “Flipkart is betting on that.”
Still, expanding beyond big cities takes time. Aditya Soman, senior research analyst at Hong Kong-based brokerage CLSA, said quick commerce is currently viable in about 125 cities and dark stores typically take six to 12 months to mature and become profitable. Many of the new stores in small towns are still in the startup phase, he added.
Amazon, which entered India’s quick commerce market in late 2024 shortly after Flipkart’s debut, is also increasing its presence. The e-commerce giant has so far deployed about 450 to 500 dark stores and currently has about 330 to 370 in operation, UBS said, as it seeks to capture growing demand for faster deliveries.
Growing pressure on incumbents
Flipkart is not only relying on dark store expansion to compete, but also on aggressive pricing. The company is offering some of the highest discounts in the space (around 23-24% across categories, based on a sample basket Jefferies analyzed last month) as it seeks to attract users in a market where price and convenience remain key drivers of demand.
The pressure from this strategy appears to be working. Brokerage firm JM Financial recently warned that Swiggy’s quick commerce business is at a “growth and profitability impasse” and risks destroying shareholder value, adding that a takeover by a larger, better-capitalized company may be the best outcome for investors.
Shares in Eternal, which owns Blinkit, have fallen about 15% since the beginning of the year, while Swiggy is down more than 29% even as Zept prepares to list on Indian stock exchanges later this year.
The entry and expansion of major players such as Flipkart and Amazon is reshaping the competitive landscape. “Quick commerce is no longer a start-up phase, but a big-name game,” said Ankur Bisen, senior partner at retail consultancy Technopak Advisors.
He added that the industry’s economics and limited differentiation could ultimately drive consolidation, as companies compete for the same customer base in a discount-heavy market.
Amazon, Flipkart and Swiggy did not respond to requests for comment. Eternal declined to comment, while Zept said it was unable to comment due to the quiet period following the IPO filing.
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