Zimbabwean President Emerson Mnangagwa is facing the fact that experts are the biggest threat to his rule as succession battles erupt ahead of the scheduled general election in 2028.
The recent maneuvering by the president and his supporters has expanded his rules to 2030, leading to calls and protests from within his party to allow the president to resign or be forced. The turbulence has seen the fire of the best security officials, and move experts say Mnangagwa is trying to avoid being overthrown in a coup.
The president has long faced criticism from Zimbabweans, but his opposition within the Zanu-PF party is rare and public calls for demonstrations against him are unprecedented. On Monday, demonstrators were taken to the streets in a protest called by top members of Zanu-PF.
For decades, Zimbabwe has been plagued by a political crisis that has led to economic stagnation, employment shortages and dysfunction in the general government. Hyperinflation over the past two decades has kneeled the economy of South Africa and wiped out the savings of the public.
“Zimbabweans are tired and need a messiah,” Blessing Vava, director of human rights group crisis Zimbabwe, told Al Jazeera.
Here’s what you need to know about the latest crisis:
What is the problem with Zanu-PF?
The internal division within the ruling Zanu-PF party, which had been in power since Zimbabwe’s independence in 1980, drives the current crisis.
The two major factions are in another major faction that supports the long term of 82-year-old Mnangagwa, with the other in favour of 68-year-old Vice President Constantino Chiwenga.
Mnangagwa came to power in 2017 amid promises of democratic and economic reform. However, critics say corruption levels remain high, with opposition parties being targeted and the economy continuing to slip.
Can Mnangagwa control beyond 2028?
Zimbabwe’s constitution has a two-term limit on the president. Mnangagwa is currently in his second term of election, ending in 2028, when elections are scheduled.
However, some members of the Zanu-PF Party have been advocating the “2030 Agenda” since last year, saying that the president should maintain third term of power to continue reform, which violates the constitution.
At its December meeting, the party officially adopted allegations that it would extend the rules of Mnangawa until 2030. It is subject to approval of the Senate and referendum, but the allegations have prompted national debate and controversy.
Who is the blessed “bomb” Geza?
Within Zanu-PF, opposition factions led by the blessed “bomb” Geza, a veteran and senior party member of the Liberation War, later held a speech-over meeting against Mnangagwa. He accused the government of corruption and called on people to protest. In one video released on social media, he regretted supporting the rise in power of the president.
“He’s soon [Mnangagwa] There was a taste of power, and he escalated corruption, forgot people, remembered only his family,” Geza said. Politicians say Mnangawa will accuse him of “subord” to his wife and children who described him as a powerful back actor in the president’s third term bid.
First Lady Oxylia Mnangagwa, along with her husband and several other government officials, was approved by the US in March 2024 on alleged involvement in the illegal diamond and gold network. In 2023, an investigation by Al Jazeera revealed that Zimbabwean officials were using smuggling gangs to sell state gold to ease the impact of sanctions.
However, Geza’s critics point out that he is also part of the establishment that has long dominated Zimbabwe. Analyst Takra Changaghasha has come to Al Jazeera because Geza’s opponents come when the country’s economy is also struggling. He added that the support Geza asks Mnangagwa to resign is not because people believe he will fight for them.
“Mr. Geza is the president [the government] “So he doesn’t have organic or popular authenticity,” Zhangazha said.
Zanu-PF officials and Mnangagwa call Geza’s Taunts “rebellious.” The politician, now reportedly hiding, was expelled from the party on March 7th. He is being sought by police on several accusations that allegedly incited public violence, including “damaging the president’s authority.”
Meanwhile, Mnangagwa shuffled the country’s national security leader. General Anselem Sanyatwe, commander of the Presidential Guard, was fired last week. Previously, police chief Godwin Matanga and Isaac Moyo, head of Intelligence Reporting Agency, were denied.
What happened on Monday?
Geza has been calling for a massive demonstration against President Mnangagwa this week in recent weeks. By Friday, security guards had poured onto the streets to stop and search vehicles in the capital Harare.
On Monday, some demonstrators gathered at the city’s Robert Mugabe Square, despite social media videos showing armored tanks rolling under the road due to increased security.
However, most people chose to stay home to avoid potential violence. As a result, businesses and offices were closed completely across the country, but authorities were urging people to go to work. Vava in Zimbabwean in crisis said that many Zimbabweans are tired of Zanu PF’s power struggle, but they were in the way.
“The Zimbabweans feel fooled and they don’t want to be used again,” Vava said. “But the shutdown was also successful. By choosing to stay home, what we saw was Zimbabweans didn’t want to be dragged into your inner battle.”
Meanwhile, the people who gathered were forcibly dispersing tear gas. Police also arrested dozens of other people. On Tuesday, authorities said they arrested 95 protesters on charges of “public violence” and “parkling peace.” Officials said some people were arrested at the location of the demonstrations, while others were picked up for social media posts.
State-owned newspapers such as the Zimbabwe Herald have reported that the protest was a “fail.” Government spokesman Farai Muroiwa Marapira said in a post on X that the protesters “were shamed” in response to the low numbers.
Good morning Zimbabwe. Another day when our country goes out and works and lifts our country. Already, plotters and planners are embarrassed. Like we said…
There is little whisper to the noise on social media in real life.
Quasi Journos creates non-existent flight numbers and charges CDE…pic.twitter.com/cvuz6wzpyf
– March 31, 2025
Why does the current crisis evoke memories of the expulsion of Robert Mugabe?
For many, the current crisis is reminiscent of the collapse of the late Robert Mugabe, who had been in power for 37 years before being chased by a coup in 2017.
Mugabe, who was kicked out at the age of 93, led the country’s battle for independence. However, his subsequent rules were characterized by opposition members’ suppression, election rigging, corruption and economic stagnation. He refused to give up his presidency for decades.
Mnangagwa was a long-standing ally of Mugabe, serving as Minister of Defense and subsequently vice president in the last year of Mugabe’s rule. He had close ties with the army.
However, the two men fell to Mugabe’s successor. Munanwaga was supported by the Army, while Mugabe wanted to hand over to his wife, Grace Mugabe.
On November 6, 2017, Mugabe fired Mnangagwa, causing the beginning of his downfall. A week later, the army seized control and Mnangagwa came to power.
It appears that the president is now caught up in the same spiral. He had promised to hand over power to Vice President Chiwenga, who was once a leading player in Mugabe’s coup, but Mnangagwa has changed his song, analysts say.
Chiwenga, who Geza claims to be speaking, has not publicly stated his desire to run for president or oppose Mnangagwa.
Mnangagwa is unlikely to succeed in extending his control, as citizens are tired of political plots and because of the deep inner cleavage of Zanu-PF, Vava told Al Jazeera.
“People don’t want the 2030 agenda,” he said. “It will be a battle for Mnangagwa’s survival.”
