tHis year was already a dramatic year in Canadian politics. In January, Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as prime minister after almost ten years in office. That month, Donald Trump was launched as president of Canada’s dominant southern neighbour, the United States. He appears to be determined to damage relations between the two countries. On March 4, his administration applied a 25% tax on most imports from Canada. These leadership changes shot the liberals in the arm. The Liberals’ next leader will be announced on March 9th. That surge adds excitement to the federal elections that must take place by October 20th, but could soon be called this spring. On this page, economists monitor national polls to assess the status of the race. This tracker is updated daily.
Polling, voting intention, %
The Liberal Party on the left of the center has been in power since 2015. It is sometimes called the “Natural Governance Party” of Canada. The Liberal Party hopes to resist the anti-employment repulsion that governments around the world have felt in recent years. But they are receiving criticism for the cost of living, inflation and the disposal of immigration.
Since 2019, the party has governed a small number of seats in Congress, and often relied on a left-wing New Democrat (NDP) vote to pass legislation. Last year, the NDP withdrew its support for the government, but stopped voting to trigger an election. In December, liberal deputy prime minister and finance minister Christia Freeland resigned from disagreement with Trudeau. The Prime Minister announced his own resignation on January 6th. He also rejected the assembly until March 24th, allowing a new prime minister to be elected.
Mark Carney, former governor of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, is widely expected to replace Trudeau. He has not ruled out calling snap elections as soon as he assumes a premiership on March 9th. This means that the election could take place on April 21st. If he does not call for an early election, his hands may be forced by the opposition parties. Opposition parties may ask for a vote of no confidence when Congress returns. It will trigger an election on May 5th.
Candidate
Leaders not yet selected
Liberal Party
The registered Liberal Party has already voted to select the next leader of the Liberal Party, which will be announced on March 9th. If Carney is elected, he will become Canada’s first prime minister who has never worked in an elected office. During the leadership campaign, Carney rejected some of Trudeau’s economic policies. This exaggerates spending on Canada’s vulnerability to US tariffs. His main opponent, Freeland, is more closely associated with the incumbent government, who served as deputy prime minister and finance minister until last year. Polls show that Carney is much more rated Canadian than Ms. Freeland, and of course Trudeau.
Pierre Poilliable
Conservative Party
Pierre Poilliel has led Canada’s major central right opposition parties since 2022. Until recently, he appeared to be on the course for a landslide victory. Lifelong political activists have walked the subtle lines, adopting the populist story points of “common sense” and avoiding the collapse of right-wing immigrants that could surprise mild voters. Trump’s election makes it difficult to maintain this balancing act as liberals attempt to throw Poilierble as Canada’s knockoff for populist US presidents.
Jagmeat Singh
New Democrats (NDP)
The left-wing NDP led by Jagmeet Singh is the attention of progressive voters. In exchange for supporting liberals with trust votes, Singh has drawn several policy concessions in his latest parliamentary session, expanding workers’ rights and access to health care. However, Singh withdrew from the agreement in September, saying the Liberal Party was “too weak, too selfish and too seen in corporate profits.” So far, this attempt to keep his party away from unpopular government has not paid dividends.
Yves-François Blanchet
Block Quebecoa (BQ)
Quebec is home to the majority of Canada’s French-speaking population. Polls suggest that there is a three-way conflict between liberals and conservatives, but with separatist bloc quebekoa. The bloc’s policy preferences at the federal level are broadly central left, and the party has supported liberal laws in the past. Yves François Blanchett, who has been leading the party since 2019, says he will promote early elections.
National polls of opinion give a good sense of Canada’s political situation, but elections are not determined by national vote shares. Under the country’s first voting system, parties must acquire individual constituencies (known as riding). In the last two elections, conservatives whose votes are inefficiently concentrated in the West of the country have won more votes than the Liberals, but fewer seats. Compared to the last election, if each party ends up increasing or decreasing vote share with a uniform amount across all riding, conservatives will need a six-point advantage nationwide to become the biggest party.
In Canada it is lower than some other Western democracies. Many voters switch parties based on their perceived abilities, leading to significant fluctuations in polls, as already proven by the recent surge in liberals. With the new prime minister and ongoing negotiations with the US and federal elections that are always called, Canadian politics are set for some twists and turns this year.
Methodology
To build a voting tracker, he hired three political scientists jobs: Simon Jackman and Luke Mansilo from the University of Sydney and Jack Bailey from the University of Manchester. Their approach treats each vote as an incomplete presumption of “true” support for each candidate. Statistical models are used to estimate “true” voting intentions, taking into account recent polls. This model takes into account the dates of fieldwork for each survey and the partisan slope of the voting company’s output.
Source: National Voting; CBC News; Jack Bailey; Economist
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