Editor’s Notes (March 4, 2025): This story has been updated.
IKyiv’s Na Sleek Business Tower, a group of engineers, is hugging a new carbon black attack drone called Batyar, the “Rogue.” It looks almost like a similar analogue to Iran-Russia Shahed drone that has terrorized Ukrainian cities for the past few months. With a range of up to 1,500 km, a cost of just $25,000, and an optical terrain recognition system that resistant to most electronic jamming, this model could offer a tough competition for Russian rivals. This is a joint effort between Ukrainian and American companies, one of many collaborations in which technology is shared and refined in the battle. “Big American companies are scary,” Ukrainian officers are coordinating the project. “They know they can’t compete.”
This war has made Ukraine a global leader in drone technology. It employs many Western weapons, including the Javelin anti-tank missile. However, that war effort is heavily dependent on Western and American military support. Late on March 3, the White House halted all military aid to Ukraine. Kiev’s government has shown more commitment to Donald Trump’s peace plan. Rumors of such a move began before a meeting with Donald Trump and Volodymea Zelensky held at the oval office on February 28th. Since then, cutoff talk has been growing at off-record briefings. It’s no wonder Ukraine is worried. “I don’t want to believe in the worst-case scenario,” said a source close to the military leadership.
A key element of American support is weapons. Ability to maintain and repair them. Air defense missiles that maintain the functioning of the city. The StarLink system is the backbone of military communication. And perhaps most importantly, sharing intelligence. Ukrainian soldiers know what will continue when the flow of American weapons dry out. In late 2023, Donald Trump instructed Republicans to retain approval for the next package of military aid for Congress. As a result, the shell shortage lasted for six months. Nazari Kishak, Senior and Intermediate, was one of the soldiers who saw it torment the frontline. In Bahmut, the Russians used the 10:1 artillery advantage to kill some of Ukrainian best officers and completely destroy the city. Many Ukrainians lost their lives unnecessarily, he says.
Ukraine can replace the firepower of many cannons with its own drone system. In this regard, it’s simply a matter of finding money. The local defense industry is below full capacity. Ukrainian drones prove themselves on the battlefield, often more effective than artillery and cost a fraction of the cost. However, the cannons still have their place, and the deployment of dozens of new systems from Ukrainian production lines each month is limited without shells. The loss of Bradley’s combat vehicle in America would do just as much damage. The end of the GPS-guided GMLRS rocket will give Russia a much greater freedom to pilot tens of kilometers behind the front line. During the Kishak Li says that orders for such weapons will simply result in “more Bahmut” and more dead Ukrainians.
The flow of ammunition is less important than the other elements of American aid. Only the US can produce high-end weapons, such as patriot missiles, which can intercept Russian high-sonic and ballistic missiles that will rain in cities. On paper, French/Italian SAMP/T systems could be a replacement if they could be produced on a scale. In reality, the system cannot neutralize the fastest missiles, but more advanced versions are expected next year. Stopping the supply of Patriot missiles is generally dangerous to deploy expensive systems, for many Ukraine, which are exposed to the kinds of destruction experienced in cities near the front, such as Kharkiv. Other Patriot Interceptor sources may be available. America, for example, allows Japan to collaborate on these, but perhaps not in a large volume. And the US must approve the transfer.
The Starlink Satellite Network, paid by Poland but managed by Americans, is another irreplaceable resource. It is not clear whether military aid cutoffs will affect the system, but Ukrainians have previously produced workarounds. Here, the engineers used mobile technology and drone relays to provide communication to the soldiers. Ukrainian officials say backups using similar technologies are ongoing. “There are things that can be unfolded in a few days, and there are broader solutions in three months.” However, this switch is difficult, leaving the Ukrainians without one of the important benefits of the battlefield. Li, Kishak, who led several businesses at Kursk, says that alternative systems are less sensitive to important aspects, particularly Russia’s electronic warfare.
The most important of all is American Intelligence, which is provided via NATO arrangements. This allows the country’s military to see all sorts of threats. The Russian army prepares to launch a new invasion. The flow of weapons from Russia, Iran and North Korea. Russian War Machines stores, logistics and operation hubs. Ukraine can direct rockets and drones to targets within Russia in real time. The Ukrainian drones can be seen just behind the current frontline. But the American eyes make them look deeper. The European Employee Command (EUCOM), which oversees all US troops on the continent, uses artificial intelligence to fuse data from satellite images, electronic intelligence and other sources to identify high-value targets. Western military officials say Europe may be able to provide some of its capabilities – for example, the appeal routinely flies Rivet Joint Surveillance Aircraft in the Black Sea, but not too fast. “In this type of war, timing is everything. Without the intelligence of the US, Ukraine struggles with dynamic targeting, a phrase that refers to the appearance of a new target being displayed.
Despite the ominous signs, Ukrainian officials refuse to make apocalyptic prediction. For one thing, nothing has been decided yet in Washington. Arms production in major elected states may also make it difficult for Trump to stop aid entirely. However, part of the guarantee comes from the quiet confidence that Ukraine is stabilizing its Eastern Front. A precision strike at logistics and fuel reservoirs deep within Russia has been successful. The Ukrainian army also appears to have become a more effective combat shape under the new operational commander Mykhailo Drapaty. Kalkiv’s reconnaissance man Dennis Jaroslavsky says the Ukrainian brigade could withstand future Russian attacks, even if American aid was dry. Another senior Ukrainian predicts that “it will slowly fade, and perhaps the frontline may recede somewhat, but there will be no tragedy.”
For those involved in the Ukrainian defense industry, a psychological blow may be as damaging as material. They say it will feel like a betrayal, especially for those accustomed to the seamless technical collaboration seen on projects like the Battier Drone. Sergie Koshman, a well-known figure in the Ukrainian milltech sector, suggests that the rupture hurts the West. “Americans are developing and testing their own capabilities here. If the worst happens and the partner proves unreliable, they need to make their choice accordingly. This scenario results in everyone in the West being the loser.” ■
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