Two analyses have found that Russian territorial profits in Ukraine are slowing dramatically, continuing the pattern since 2024 as the two countries are trying to project strength in the face of US-mediated negotiations aimed at ending the war.
The British Ministry of Defense estimated last week that Russian forces seized 143 square kilometers (55 square miles) in Ukraine in March, compared with 196 square kilometers (76 square miles) in February and 326 square kilometers (126 square miles) in January.
The War Institute, a Washington, DC-based think tank, discovered the same trend, estimated profits at 203 square kilometers (78 square miles) in March, 354 square kilometers (137 square miles) in February, and 427 square kilometers (165 square miles) in January.
These estimates are based on satellite images and open source photography rather than claiming on either side.
If this trend continues, Russian troops could halt by early summer, roughly coinciding with the voluntary early deadline of US President Donald Trump to achieve a ceasefire.
Russia’s reduced returns have been reduced despite a significant expansion of its army size from the estimated 150,000 soldiers who made their first invasion between February and February 2022.
“Since the start of the attack, the enemy has increased the group five times,” Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Silsky told online publication livyi bereg this week. He estimates that Russia adds between 120,000 to 130,000 soldiers to Ukrainian troops a year, with about 623,000 soldiers today.
Nevertheless, almost all of the Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia were the result of the seizure of Crimea in 2014 and the first full-scale invasion in 2022.
The 2023 Ukraine counterattack regained approximately 20,000 square kilometers (7,722 square miles). Russia has so far failed to recapture it.
Last year, its crushing progress in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine managed to seize just 4,168 square kilometers (1,609 square miles) of fields and abandoned villages, equivalent to 0.69% of Ukraine, a war research institute decided in January.
These benefits were costly for men and materials. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has brought the loss of Russian soldiers to 430,790. This amounts to 36 Russian electric rifle sectors, including Russia’s losses in 2022 and 2023, and Russia’s losses above.
Russia is recruiting enough soldiers to make up for its losses, but performances on the battlefield suggest that it struggles with training and equipment for its forces.
The announcement of each capture in Moscow, no matter how small, helped to create an impression of inevitability for Ukraine’s conquest. For example, on Monday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said it had set a settlement with Katerinovka in Donetsk.
But these conquests are small. The War Institute estimated that even the 2024 advance rate required two years for Russia to occupy the rest of Donetsk. And that was before the pace of Russia’s territorial interests slipped further in 2025.
Negotiated escalation
Despite these trends, Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated his attacks since the start of the US-Russia ceasefire talks on February 18th.
Telegraph’s analysis showed that between January and February, the number of Russian drone strikes against Ukraine increased by more than 50%.
In the first week of March, Russia began a coordinated effort to drive Ukrainian soldiers primarily out of Kursk, the Russian border area that Ukraine invaded in August.
On April 9, Russia said that only two settlements, Gornar and Oleshnia, remained in the hands of Ukrainians in Kursk, and were trapped in a fierce battle to regain them.
Russia’s March success in Kursk coincided with Ukraine’s US intelligence news and the cutoff of military aid.
Last week, Russia was building a force to track success in Kursk by opening new fronts in Karkiv and Smie, two regions in northeastern Ukraine on its border with Russia, Silsky said.
“For almost a week, we’ve been observing that we’re almost double the number of enemy aggressive behaviors in all major directions,” he said.
Silsky also said Russia believes Moscow, the Moscow used in late 2021, could use joint military exercises with Belarus planned in the fall as a cover to mobilize more force.
There is no ceasefire
Moscow also conducted a diplomatic attack this week, doubling its efforts to slander Ukrainian President Voldy Milzelensky as an unreliable leader.
Russian officials said Ukraine continues to refuse a ceasefire in its energy infrastructure. Kiev never agreed, but Moscow declared unilaterally on March 18th after a call between Trump and Putin.
On Friday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said Ukraine had launched half a dozen attacks on energy facilities in Briansk, Tambov and Lipitsk regions, causing gas outages in three cities and two power outages.
“Over 100 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles to bomb civilian targets in Russian soil for just one night talk 1,000 times more about his “desires for peace” than Zelensky lamented.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that “the lack of control of the Kiev regime, the impossibility of the Kiev regime has become complicated about controlling the actions of many extremists and nationalist forces simply not following Kiev.” It was a reference to the suspicion of the existence of far-right elements in the Ukrainian military.
Russia and the US are expected to negotiate in Istanbul on Thursday.
On Wednesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said two drones were shot down while attempting to attack a gas distribution factory in Temrik, which is sitting on the neck of land on the Russian side of the Crimea Peninsula.
That same night, the province said eight Ukrainian drones were fired down and would arrive at the Kolenovskaya Electric Factory, which drives the Taktre gas pipeline. Two times this year, Ukraine has attempted to shut down the pipeline, targeting compressors.
In total, the Russian Ministry of Defense said it had intercepted 107 Ukrainian drones in 10 regions in one of its biggest attacks from the night of April 3 and early April 4.
However, Russia also targeted the Kherson Thermal Power Plant, which has a short-distance first-person view (FPV) drone on Friday, Zelenskyy said. FPV drones typically carry up to 5kg (11lb). This is a much smaller payload than a long-range strike drone, usually in the range of 20kg to 50kg (44lb to 110lb).
The Kremlin was not much touted by the fact that a Ukrainian drone barrage on Saturday struck a fiber optic system factory in Saransk, Russia’s Moldovia. It is the only plant-manufactured fiber optic in Russia used in FPV drones and other defense systems.
Russia also did not mention that Ukrainian drones struck Prom Sintes, the manufacturer of industrial explosives in the Samara region, causing 20 explosions and fires. The factory reportedly halted production after the attack.
In an interview, Silsky said the drone had destroyed the $100 million long-range Tupolev-22M3 bomber a few days ago. Ukraine targets these bombers as they are used to fire thousands of glide bombs at the Ukrainian frontline every month.
Silsky also said that strikes against Russian airfields pushed the Russian air force back, reducing its effectiveness.
Unlike Ukraine, which consistently targets defense and energy infrastructure, Russia has maintained long-range air attacks targeting Ukrainian cities.
In retaliation for Saturday’s attack, Russia launched 18 cruise missiles, six ballistic missiles and 109 attack drones on Saturday night.
Ukraine intercepted one ballistic missile and 12 cruise missile drones, but said five ballistic missiles attacked residential areas.
One of them killed 20 people in Kryvyi Rih, including nine children, and urged the UN Security Council to hold an emergency meeting.
“This is why the war has to end,” U.S. Ambassador Kiev Bridget Brink wrote on social media.
“Such a strong country, such a strong person, and such a weak response,” Zelensky replied on Telegram. “They are even afraid to say the word ‘Russian’ when they talk about missiles that killed children. ”
Russia accused Zelensky of intentionally framing the attack as an indiscriminate massacre of civilians, but was really targeting foreign meetings with Ukrainian commanders at the restaurant.
However, Russia tracked Krivii Li’s ballistic missile strike with waves of drones that hit playgrounds and residential buildings.
Up until this strike, Russia and Ukraine were observing an unofficial ceasefire in the Black Sea. This was clearly over as Zelensky said some of the Russian missiles were fired from the ship and submarine.
The attack continued this week. The Russian Ministry of Defense said on Monday that 19 Ukrainian drones were fired down overnight.
The Ukrainian Air Force said it had intercepted 31 drones from a total of 46 attacks on Tuesday. The drone followed a strike by the Iskander ballistic missile with a tactic reminiscent of that of Cliviy RIH.
The next night, Russia launched 55 Shahed drones in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force said it defeated 32 and was in eight confusion. Russia said it defeated 158 Ukrainian drones in 11 regions.
After North Korea, Chinese
The Sloboda Brigade, Ukraine’s 81st separate airlines, said it had captured two Chinese soldiers in Ukrainian soil on Tuesday.
Zelenskyy confirmed this at a press conference, saying, “The Ukrainians engaged in fighting with six Chinese service members in the Donetsk region of Tarashivka and Biloholybka.”
He later wrote on social media:
US State Department spokesman Tammy Bruce said the involvement of Chinese soldiers was “intrusive.”
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jiang denied Beijing’s involvement on Wednesday. However, Russian television channels showed further evidence of Ukrainian Chinese military forces a few weeks ago.
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