Bangkok, Thailand – As Myanmar slowly recovers from a magnitude 7.7 earthquake that killed thousands in March, an even bigger catastrophe continues to shape the country’s future.
Myanmar remains plagued by civil war, and after four years of battle, the junta finds itself increasingly under siege.
However, the effects of the earthquake could prove critical for next year’s conflict.
Military government figures show that at least 3,649 people were injured and 145 are still missing after attacking in Myanmar’s central Sagar region on March 28th.
Earthquake shocks flattened houses, factories, Buddhist pagodas and apartment blocks, knocked down bridges, and destroyed roads in Sagar city and nearby Mandalay.
Ting Lin Aung, a former Myanmar military major who fled to the resistance movement in 2022, also said he disrupted the power supply to factories that produce munitions for the military.
Ting Lin Aung said military supply has increased and recently captured by government forces with clear signs of recent acquisition of bullets and artillery casings from government forces.
“When I was in the military, we were joking that some of the bullets were older than us,” he said.
“Now they’re in use right away,” he said.
The reported suspension of military ammunition production is because longtime ethnic armed groups and new armed opposition parties still surround areas where the army still controls on almost every side.
Nevertheless, the military maintains iron grips in the country’s major cities and core critical infrastructure.
Surrounded by urban hubs, the army tried to reverse the losses through indiscriminate airstrikes and rural burning villages.
“Momentary than the military”
The Sagar city has been devastated by earthquakes, and it is under military control, but much of the surrounding countryside is controlled by resistance militias (PDFs), such as the Resistance Militia (PDFs), which are roughly coordinated by the opposition National Unity Government (NUG).
Nug declared a ceasefire in areas affected by the earthquake until April 20, with the exception of “defensive operations,” but military operations continue.
According to NUG, Myanmar’s airborne and artillery attacks killed at least 72 civilians during the earthquake that will attack until April 8 on March 28th. Two more civilians, including a 13-year-old girl, died in military aircraft bombing on April 10th.
A PDF fighter based on Sagar, who requested anonymity, said some rebels had pivoted in rescue operations in Central Myanmar, despite military enemies taking advantage of the lull in combat.
“Since the trembling, the military has been using Sagar Monuwa Road with more confidence for a ceasefire,” she said. However, after the truce in April ends, Sagaing’s PDF troops hope the fight will intensify.
“The PDF has more momentum than the army here,” she told Al Jazeera, adding that the pseudonym is “better coordinated with ethnic militants.”
“There will be more fights in the coming months,” said Ko Kogie of Battalion 3 in Sagain PDF.
Regional security analyst Anthony Davis said he doubted the earthquake would divert the troops from strategic goals, adding that most soldiers remained in their risons rather than assisting with rescue operations.
“The military hasn’t taken the time to save people. They will maintain airstrikes and, if possible, launch ground attacks to weaken the PDF,” Davis said.
But it is the western state of Rakhine (which mostly spares from earthquakes), and it is still the most consequential battlefield, he said.
There, the rebel Arakan army (AA) clashed with troops around the state’s capital, Sittwe and Kyoukfiu.
The AA was simultaneously pushed from the country’s western home territory into the central center of Myanmar in the Magwe, Bago and Eiyawadi regions, Davis said.
“They are swing players who can move this conflict in some way significantly,” he added.
Commanding an estimated 40,000 soldiers, the AA has a proven record of defeating the military forces of the junta.
In Kaya Province in eastern Myanmar, a senior resistance commander said the earthquake highlighted the suffering of displaced people “bearing the brunt of an ongoing war.”
“We will be willing to care for people and will be able to shake public opinion and will be successful in the fight ahead,” he said.
In the north and northwest, the army is behind.
The Kachin Independent Army acquired the town of Indo in the North Sagan area on April 7, despite proclaiming its siege on April 7 after an eight-month siege. The Jaw Resistance Force recently gained control of Faram Township in western Myanmar, but has not announced a ceasefire.
Political analyst Kyaw Hsan Hlaing said the military is still working on the aftermath of the earthquake, which could create an opening for AA and others to seize more towns.
“However, such benefits are likely to be progressive, as the military’s longstanding control and adaptation capabilities remain important even under conditions of crisis, especially in areas such as Bago and Magwe,” he said.
“In the long term, earthquakes rarely change the balance of power in Myanmar,” he said.
“God’s intervention”
The earthquake has not caused a decisive blow to military control, but the earthquake has a spiritual shock to the regime generals.
In countries where astrology and superstitions lead to the highest political decisions, many interpret natural disasters as the universe’s responsibilities to Myanmar’s military leaders.
“They see this earthquake as a divine intervention – punishment for the king’s mistake. From what I have heard, they have not blamed him. [regime leader Min Aung Hlaing] Direct. But there are questions about his leadership and capabilities,” said former Ting Lin Aung, who still maintains contact information within the secret military facility.
According to Ting Lin Aung, the administration has ordered civil servants across the country to recite protected Buddhist hymns nine times a day for nine consecutive days. Number nine has an auspicious symbolism in Buddhist traditions.
He also described the growing chaos within the class surrounding the regime’s response to the earthquake. They are calling for international aid and support, and are continuing their attacks while declaring a ceasefire.
“They know that people hate them more and more, and their leader seems to be lost,” he said.
Richard Horsese, senior Myanmar advisor to the International Crisis Group, said that even if General Min Aung Frening, commander of the Myanmar Army, dismisses these supernatural interpretations, the fact that his inner circle will seriously induce them creates true vulnerability. Instead of causing an internal coup, he proposed an earthquake as bad harbingers likely indicate the erosion of Min Aung Frening’s authority and the rise of open criticism.
“You go to people who feel they can ignore his orders and do their things.
Political analyst Kyaw Hsan Hlaing said some sources suggest that Quake’s beliefs as a precursor to the collapse of military domination could be used to push the narrative that the administration “needs to act decisively to regain control.”
Superstitions are just one of many factors that shape the military’s decisions in conflict, he added.
The earthquake also “has caused significant damage to Myanmar’s basic fabric,” Horsey said, noting that Mandalay residents are potentially facing migration due to massive housing damage.
Given the magnitude of the earthquake, it will likely affect the civil war – “But in a difficult way to predict,” he said.
With continued attacks in national emergency, the military’s poor reputation fell even further into the eyes of people and their enemies, criticised for its effective and indifferent reaction to earthquake casualties.
The powerful ethnic armed groups involved in the conflict will further advocate negotiating for peace with the military following the trembling, Horse said.
“Even if we could achieve a spirit of compromise that would not exist,” few believe in the military’s integrity in compliance with peace agreements and ceasefire documents.
“Who would believe that piece of paper,” Horse said. It was signed by an army considered “very non-giatite and incompetent.”
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