WASHINGTON, DC — US President Donald Trump says building formal relationships between Saudi Arabia and Israel will be a “dream,” but he wants the kingdom to do it “on his own time.”
On Tuesday, the White House released a fuss about its economic and defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, including hundreds of millions of dollars, but Israel’s mentions were not notable from the announcement.
The so-called “normalization” drive between Saudi Arabia and Israel dominated his predecessor, Joe Biden’s approach to the region, but the current US president has shifted his focus elsewhere, analysts say.
“The Trump administration has made it clear that it is willing to advance a major agreement with Saudi Arabia without the previous conditions for normalisation,” said Anna Jacobs, a non-resident of the Institute of Arab Gulf Countries, a think tank.
“This probably reflects the growing dissatisfaction of the Trump administration over Israeli military actions, particularly across the region, in Gaza.”
“Time is not right”
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle Eastern fellow at Baker Institute, said he is aware of Trump’s ongoing war in Gaza and Israel’s refusal to negotiate the establishment of a Palestinian state.
“I think the White House has finally admitted that a normalization agreement is not possible at this point,” Coates Ulrichsen told Al Jazeera.
During his first term, Trump brokered Abraham’s agreements between Israel and several Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates.
However, as evident in the outbreak of the war in Gaza in October 2023, the agreement failed to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
But even before the war began, Israel was blunting its military raids on the Palestinians and expanding illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, further dimbling the prospects for a solution to the conflict.
Despite the obvious flaws of the deal, Biden has forced Saudi Arabia to add a focus to the Abraham Accord to the Middle Eastern agenda, with US officials saying they worked to secure deals until the last day of the administration, even if the war with Gaza was raging.
Biden has repeatedly argued without evidence that Hamas launched an October 7 attack on Israel in 2023, blocking the agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Israelis.
Still, the day before he resigned, Biden boasted that his Middle Eastern policies had created an opportunity for “a future of Israeli integration with all his Arab neighbors, including Saudi Arabia.”
“From the table”
US officials and media reports said that Biden’s deal did not come true, but brought about a security agreement between Riyadh and Washington, providing support to Saudi Arabia in exchange for normalisation with Israel.
The main obsession of that push was Saudi Arabia’s support for the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, conditioning on Israel’s perception of the establishment of a viable Palestinian state.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has defied the “land for peace” framework and has instead pushed for dealing with Arab countries that bypass the Palestinians.
“This Israeli government will not even provide lip service to the idea of a solution for the two states, making it very impossible for Saudi Arabia to seriously consider progress in normalization,” said Jacobs of the Institute for the Arab Gulf Countries.
“It seems the Trump administration knew it was off the table, at least for now.”
In Riyadh, Trump has announced an agreement to deepen security cooperation with Saudi Arabia.
According to the $142 billion deal, “state-of-the-art combat equipment and services” will provide Saudi Arabia with “state-of-the-art war equipment and services” from US companies.
It also includes “extensive training and support to build the capabilities of the Saudi military, including strengthening the service academy in Saudi Arabia and military health services.”
The arms and training deals do not fall short of mutual defense agreements like NATO, which may be included as part of a match with Israel, but they have been bitten from a US-supported carrot that was provided to the kingdom for normalization, experts say.
“Today’s announcement further deepens the link between Saudi Arabia and the US security and defense interests,” Coates Ulrichsen said.
The rift in Israel, USA?
A Trump visit to the region will occur as Israel has not only continued, but has pledged to expand the devastating war with Gaza, which killed more than 52,900 Palestinians, according to health officials.
Khaled Elgindi, a visiting scholar at Georgetown University, noted that Riyadh describes Israeli atrocities in Gaza as “genocide.”
“Saudi Arabia doesn’t write the words. They don’t hold back,” Elgindi told Al Jazeera. “They can’t move towards normalisation with Israel now after denounced Israel as genocide. That would be ridiculous.”
After a trip to Saudi Arabia, Trump will head to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates as part of his president’s first planned foreign trip since attending Pope Francis’ funeral last month. Israel is not on its itinerary.
For those like Coates Ulrichsen, Israel’s Trump’s obvious snub reflects unrest in the US-Israel alliance.
“Given Israel remains in conflict, it may be a signal that the White House considers it to be far more valuable in deepening its commercial and strategic ties with the Gulf,” Coats Ulrichsen told Al Jazeera.
Israel has been excluded
Tensions between the Trump administration and Netanyahu government have become more apparent in recent weeks despite Israeli US troops and diplomatic support.
Trump confirmed talks with Iran over the nuclear program during Netanyahu’s visit to the White House despite Israeli leaders opposed negotiations with Tehran.
Last week, the US president also declared a ceasefire with Houthis. The deal did not demand that Yemeni Group end the attack on Israel.
When Trump spoke in Riyadh on Tuesday, the Houtis launched another missile in Israel. Some of the campaign says it aims to put an end to the war with Gaza.
The Trump administration also worked with Qatar and Egyptian mediators to secure the release of US citizen Edan Alexander, who served in the Israeli army and was captured by Hamas during the attack on Israel on October 7th. Israeli media reports say that Israel has been removed from these consultations.
Various visions
Elgindi of Georgetown University said the obvious tension is more than a “traffic conflict,” but its impact on US-Israel relations has yet to be seen.
“Trump makes clear in words and deeds that our interests and Israel are not the same,” he said. “And that’s very important because Biden didn’t do that.”
For now, Trump continues to be committed to US military aid to Israel, even as he intensifies the bombing and hunger cameaghation campaign in Gaza.
And the US president pushed crackdowns against Israeli critics at home, especially on university campuses.
Still, experts say by skipping Israel and removing normalization during his trip to the Middle East, Trump is moving forward to pursue his own vision for the region.
On Tuesday, Trump praised Gulf leaders who said they were building the Middle East.
That future appears to be at odds with what Israel seems to be seeking. It has claimed hegemony over the region in its long-term bombing campaigns that include Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.
“The administration’s view has sent a very strong signal that the stable and prosperous Middle East, represented by the Gulf states, is a much better outcome than the current view of Israel.
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