South Korean voters have chosen a new president to replace Yoon Sook-Yeol, who was fired off in December in his brief, unfortunate martial law bid.
The June 3 SNAP election is crucial, affecting South Korea’s democratic future, and its relationship with China, the United States and its nuclear-armed neighbour, North Korea.
The winner, who served a single five-year term, lasted six hours, unleashed political turmoil, including massive protests, court riots and three caretaker leaders.
The new president will also need to tackle the growing economic downturn and manage tariff negotiations with the United States. Tariff negotiations with the US impose 25% collection on major exports such as steel, aluminum and automobiles.
Here’s what you need to know about the June 3rd poll:
Who is the candidate?
There are six candidates on the vote, but the main candidates are Lee Jae-mun of the South Korean Opposition Democratic Party (DP) and Kim Moon-Saw of the Conservative People’s Power Party (PPP).
Who is expected to win?
Lee (61), a politician who has turned human rights lawyer, is at the forefront.
A Gallup South Korea poll on May 28 showed 49% of respondents supported the liberal candidate, while 36% said they would vote for Kim, 73, a stubborn conservative who served as the Minister of Labor in the Yoon government.
Third place was Lee Junsek, a new conservative reform party with 9%.
What is the important question?
Yoon’s failed martial law bids overshadowed the race.
It has returned to the trajectory for the presidency, when Lee lost his final election to Yoon in 2022.
Opposition leaders helped to block the president’s plans. On December 3, when Yoon declared martial law – to abolish the Congress that portrayed the Democratic-controlled Congress as “anti-state” and “criminal nests,” Lee rushed to the Parliament to the walls of the building, preventing hundreds of armed troops from being placed there. He livestreamed his exploitation and urged his supporters to come to Congress to prevent the arrest of legislators.
Despite the military blockade, sufficient lawmakers were able to arrive in Congress and vote to end martial law. Congress advanced to the bluff each Yoon on December 14th.
“This election would not have happened unless it was due to the declaration of martial law by Yoon Sook-Yeol and his blast each,” said Young Chic Bong, a researcher at Yongpai University in Seoul. “These problems suck in all the other problems like a vortex. Everything else is a little.”
On the campaign trail, Lee promised to lead those who come with Yoon’s failure to justice, and also to introduce stricter control over the president’s ability to declare martial law.
Where candidates stand on martial law attempts
Opposition leader Lee has also proposed constitutional changes to introduce a four-year, two-term presidency. At this point, South Korean presidents are only allowed to hold a single term of five years. Lee also advocates a presidential election leak system. This will allow the top two candidates to respond to each other in the second round if the candidates do not secure 50% of the popularity poll.
“A four-year two-term presidency will enable interim assessments of the administration and strengthen responsibility,” he wrote on Facebook, calling for constitutional reforms that will allow for changes. “On the other hand, adopting an outflow election system will improve the legitimacy of democratic governance and help reduce unnecessary social conflict.”
PPP Kim accepted Lee’s proposal on constitutional reform to allow a second term, but he suggests reducing each term to three years.
However, Yoon’s bid for martial law brought the PPP into crisis and chaos.
The civil war plagued the party that fought as they tried to choose a successor to the president who was fired up. Kim won the party primary, but the leader tried to replace him with former prime minister Han Dak Saw. On the eve of the party’s campaign, they cancelled Kim’s candidacy, but only to revive him after party members opposed the move.
Bong of Yonsonsi University said the civil war at the conservative camp over Yoon’s order and the department will need IT support.
“Kim Moon Saw has not set a clear position on the declaration of martial law,” Bong said. “He has not distanced himself from Yoon’s legacy, but at the same time he has not made it clear whether he believes the declaration of martial law is a violation of the constitution.
Still, it appears Kim has eroded the point gap of over 20% with Lee at the start of the campaign.
However, he did not convince the third candidate, Lee Jun Chic, to abandon the bid and back the PPP to improve that opportunity. Lee, the new Reform Party, 40, said Tuesday that “there is no merger of candidates” and “there are no candidates.”
What about foreign policy?
The policy debate took the backseat, but the election results could turn South Korea’s approach to North Korea. As the Korean War of 1950-1953 ended with an armistice rather than a peace treaty, the two neighbors are technically at war, and the ties between them are a new low.
North Korean leader Kim Jong called for rewriting his country’s constitution and describing Seoul as “a major enemy, immutable enemy” in order to abolish its long-standing goal of unifying a nation divided into wars. Pyongyang has also cut off communication lines, with both countries colliding with balloons and drones carrying garbage and propaganda.
Democrat Lee has pledged to ease tensions if elected, including restoring the military hotline, and to maintain the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula.
However, Kim supports Yoon’s hard-pressed approach, pledging to ensure “first deterrence” through tools such as ballistic missiles and relocating US tactical nuclear weapons. He also said he wanted the state to seek a path to pursuing nuclear armament by securing the right to reprocess nuclear fuel, and by ensuring the important steps to build atomic weapons.
The two candidates also differ in their approach to the US, the US’s most important security ally, and China, their biggest trading partner.
Lee, who supports what he calls practical foreign policy, says it is important to maintain an alliance between South Korea and the US and pursue security cooperation with Japan. However, he promised to prioritize “national interests” and said “there is no need to unnecessarily oppose China or Russia.”
Meanwhile, Kim questioned Lee’s commitment to the US-South Korea Alliance and has pledged to hold an immediate summit meeting with President Donald Trump if he chooses to discuss tariffs.
“I have a very friendly and trustworthy relationship,” said the American leader and Kim.
He also shows his willingness to discuss something Trump has been demanding for years, the more cost of stationing US troops in the country.
Lee Sung Yoon, a board member of the North Korean Human Rights Commission, described the differences in the policies of rival camps as “unchanging,” referring to previous comments by Democrat Lee.
“In the past, Lee has said that South Korea should not be involved in China’s stance on Taiwan, thanking both Beijing and Taiwan and saying he is away from the conflict. He is invading because he was a political newbie who said the unfortunate thing.”
Analysts said Lee — in the course of the election campaign, he tried to return some of his statements to appeal to more moderate voters.
But “people sitting in the power councils in Washington, DC, or Tokyo, or in Kiev, Ukraine, will venture to speculate that they are not too excited by the prospects of the Lee administration,” he said.
When will you know the outcome?
Koreans overseas have already voted, with early voting on Thursday and Friday. Many people took part in the early vote, including two front runners.
According to the National Election Commission, around 44.4 million people from a country of 52 million are eligible to vote. On Election Day, a public holiday, the polling station will be open at 6am (22:00 GMT) and will be closed at 8pm (20:00 GMT).
The count starts immediately, and the winner is known that night or early in the next day. Even if you don’t win 50% of the vote, the candidate who wins the most votes is considered the winner.
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