Forecasters predict the arrival of a potentially extreme El Niño this summer that could push temperatures around the world to unprecedented extremes.
Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced that there is a 62% chance of an El Niño occurring from June through August. In other words, El Niño is likely to occur this year.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern due to changes in air and ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During an El Niño event, warm water gathers in the eastern Pacific near the equator, causing the jet stream to flow south. This has brought warmer and drier conditions to the northern United States and increased risk of flooding to the Gulf Coast and southeastern United States.
Article continues below
you may like
The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently in the midst of ENSO’s cold phase, La Niña, in which sea surface temperatures are at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius) below the long-term average. La Niña is expected to end within a few weeks as ocean temperatures rise, according to the latest announcement from the Climate Prediction Center. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures reach and remain at least 0.9°F above the long-term average.
AccuWeather reported that if El Niño occurs as expected, it could intensify into a “Super El Niño.” Super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures are at least 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Celsius) above the long-term average.
“Although the strength is uncertain, a moderate to possibly strong El Niño is likely to develop this fall and into winter,” said AccuWeather’s Paul Pastelok, a meteorologist and chief long-range forecaster for the United States, according to the weather website.
Forecasters at AccuWeather estimate there is a 15% chance of a Super El Niño forming by the end of hurricane season in November. Meanwhile, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there is a 1 in 3 chance of a strong El Niño occurring between October and December, but the potential strength is “highly uncertain.”
El Niño tends to increase hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean while suppressing hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, typically slowing down the overall hurricane season.
The ENSO cycle produces a warm El Niño and a cold La Niña on average every two to seven years. However, they don’t always arrive on time. Similarly, each phase tends to last about 9 to 12 months, but the duration varies.
The El Niño phenomenon is coming. This pushes up global temperature estimates for 2026 (although it is still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year) and, given historical lags due to ENSO and surface temperatures, makes 2027 very likely the warmest year on record. pic.twitter.com/agqcicaYIaMarch 6, 2026
The last time Earth experienced an El Niño was between May 2023 and March 2024. At that time, El Niño approached Super El Niño, and sea surface temperatures exceeded the 3.6 degree threshold, but did not stay above the threshold long enough to meet the criteria. The last Super El Niño occurred in 2015-2016.
The last El Niño brought record heat in 2023 and 2024, with 2024 currently the hottest year on record. If El Niño occurs in 2026, that year will be warm, but it is unlikely to be as hot as 2024. After all, we started the year in La Niña. However, according to a post on social media platform X by climate scientist and energy systems analyst Sieg Hausfather, global temperatures could rise to record highs by 2027.
“El Niño is coming,” Hausfather wrote. “This will push up global temperature estimates for 2026 (although it is still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year). Given the historical lag due to ENSO and surface temperatures, 2027 is very likely to be the warmest year on record.”
It is important to remember that various factors affect weather and climate. The Earth is already warming due to climate change, and will continue to do so regardless of what ENSO plans to do.
