NEW DELHI, India — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will land in Washington late Wednesday night and will meet President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday.
The two leaders often described each other as friends in the past and held joint political gatherings together, but Modi’s visit tested the relationship with the reality of Trump’s tariff threat and deportation. It comes when it’s done.
“I look forward to meeting my friend, President Trump,” Modi said in a departure message. [Trump’s] The first term.”
Trump announced Modi’s visit to the US after a phone conversation on January 27, a week after taking office for his second term. After their appeal, Trump also said he believes Modi will do the “right thing” to undocumented Indian immigrants in the US.
But it’s not easy for Modi to please both Trump and the Indian people.
This is what is at risk for India, and Modi tries to meet with Trump with him to lick the US president.
What is at risk for India?
The US is India’s largest export destination and ranks among the top two trading partners in several sectors, including technology, trade, defense and energy. Two-way trade between the US and India touched on a record high of $118 billion between 2023 and 24.
Bilateral relations have also been strengthened over the past 30 years as the US is increasingly focused on fighting the rise of its shared rival, China.
But despite that convergence, Trump has made it clear that he, like some of his US allies, has a deep difference from India.
During the campaign for the 2024 election, Trump named India a “very big abuser” of trade, threatening tariffs. Since being elected, he has urged New Delhi to buy more US-made security equipment as a way to reduce their trade imbalances. In 2024, the trade surplus favored India was $45.6 billion, according to US government data.
Trump’s reelection campaign also highlighted illegal settlements with undocumented immigrants in the United States. As of 2022, India ranked third among countries living in the country with the largest number of undocumented immigrants (725,000) after Mexico and El Salvador.
And last Wednesday, a US military plane landed in Amritsar, a northern Indian city, carrying 104 Indian exiles, cuffing their hands and legs. On the farthest journeys made by US military aircraft, the “abuse” of deportees spurred enormity, including protests by the opposition in India.
“India has always celebrated the success of American Indians, meaning that Indian Americans have been a very prominent community in Indian consciousness,” said Delhi’s prestigious Jawaharlalneur University. Professor Swaransin of the International Politics Centre said. India’s foreign policy also celebrated under Modi, particularly non-resident Indians, he said. “These dynamics make abuse of Indian deportees a volatile and flammable issue in bilateral connections,” Singh said.
John Danilowicz, a retired diplomat who served in the US State Department, said that Modi and Trump’s meetings are “mainly an opportunity for the Indian Prime Minister to present his side of the story to make New Delhi claims.” I stated.
But what can Modi offer to manage Trump’s threats regarding tariffs and deportation?
What is Modi’s game plan for deportation?
Singh pointed out that the Indian government has calmed the official response to anger towards the image of citizens returning from the US with cufflinks.
It was a deliberate decision, he suggested.
“Trump has several ways to get him mad. He uses his whimsical statements to create maximum pressure,” Singh said. “And then it’s not a good idea to stand up to him publicly. [on contentious issues]. ”
Instead, after a fuss in Congress, India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said the use of detention was part of the US deportation policy, saying, “If they are discovered, it is not possible to reclaim the people. He added that it is a duty of all countries: they live abroad illegally.”
“Our focus should be on a strong crackdown on the illegal migration industry, while taking steps to facilitate visas for legal travelers,” Jaishankar said.
How will Modi respond to Trump with tariffs?
Trump has pledged to announce more tariffs later this week, and has not specified which countries or sectors to be targeted, but India is expected to be affected.
On Wednesday, White House press chief Caroline Leavitt said these mutual tariffs on countries that Trump believes will impose unfair restrictions on US imports before the US president meets Modi. He said he is hoping for this.
Trump has already imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports in addition to existing tariffs, and has introduced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.
But when Modi meets Trump, the Indian Prime Minister can point to the recent unilateral measures India has taken to lower the barrier to entry of US goods, analysts say.
Traditionally, India, an emerging economy, has implemented high tariffs on some imported products that it feared could harm the domestic industry and the farm sector. However, in the latest budget released on February 1, the Modi government cut tariffs significantly and avoided the announcement of protectionists.
Such measures “will precede any action of the US administration,” Danirowitz said.
After all, India is well versed in the risks of a tariff war with the US. In 2018, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on $761 million steel and 10% tariff on $382 million aluminum imported from India. This retaliated by adding tariffs to at least 28 US products. After years of trade tensions, a resolution was announced in 2023 during a Modi visit to Washington.
Modi will want to avoid repeating it.
Biswajit Dhar, a well-known professor at the Social Development Council of New Delhi, said:
Dar, an international trade expert, told Al Jazeera that Modi needed to use the conference.
“If China is being slapped with these types of tariffs, the same should not happen to India,” says Darl, and the “personalized background” for the duo’s relationship is a space to address these arguments He added that it should make it possible. “At least India doesn’t want to be clubbed with China.”
After all, the common doubt of Beijing’s plan for China, or rather the Asia-Pacific region, is the biggest glue that holds India-US relations together.
“Commitment to the Quad”
Modi is the fourth world leader to meet Trump since his re-election after being caught up in conflicts with Israel, Jordan and Japan, allies in the Asia-Pacific region. Foreign policy experts told Al Jazeera that being invited to this early in Trump’s term shows how important it is for the US president to consider his relationship with India. Ta.
China is a big part of that.
The day after Trump was sworn in as the 47th US President, his newly appointed Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, held a meeting with foreign ministers in India, Australia and Japan. The four countries have a mass population of nearly 200 million people, accounting for more than a third of the world’s total domestic agricultural products (GDP), and form Quad, a strategic forum focusing on the Asia-Pacific region. It’s there.
Also, a Modi-Trump call on January 27th highlighted their commitment to advancing the US-India strategic partnership and the Indo-Pacific quad partnership after their conversation. a US government statement said.
“The Trump administration clearly shows that the Indo-Pacific region is a priority, and that is clearly driven by competition with China,” said Danirowicz, a former US diplomat. Ta.
But there are other countries that Trump and the US want to target. And there, New Delhi and Washington are different.
Iranian equation
Michael Kugelman, director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the Wilson Centre, a Washington, DC-based think tank, said a major storm is being brewed between India and the US through Iran.
At the heart of the tension is Chabahar Port in the Gulf of Oman, India is investing millions of dollars in hopes of developing its strategically located maritime facilities. The port allows India to send food, aid and other goods through Iran to inland Afghanistan and Central Asia.
India had secured sanctions exemptions from the US during the first Trump administration for work related to Chabahar.
However, in a memorandum of understanding from the National Security President that Trump signed on February 4th, he asked the US Secretary of State to “amend or withdraw the sanctions immunity.”
“Trump’s Iranian policy could be a flashpoint in US-India relations and could have detrimental effects,” Kugelman told Al Jazeera, telling Trump’s “mass-maximist position against Iran.” ” added that it presents a sensitive diplomatic situation for India.
“Bonomy” and friction
Other ties are tying, as in the allegations by US prosecutors that Indian spy agencies tried to assassinate Sikh separatist Garpatwantshinpann, a citizen of the US. Or the US indictment of billionaire Gautam Adani for bribery charges — will continue to hide bilateral ties, Kugelman said.
“These issues will not necessarily occur in the near future or at this meeting, but they will not disappear anytime soon,” Kugelman said. “Given Trump’s biggest stance on tariffs, he’s going to do everything to encourage the country to overthrow and cut tariffs.”
Indian diplomats and international foreign policy experts say Modi’s acclaimed “bromance” and the equation with Trump offers India a table advantage with other countries.
But it doesn’t necessarily translate into a “better deal,” said Danirowicz, a former US diplomat.
“The good equation added that India needs to be prepared to deal with friction rather than trade faster meetings with Trump and face time, not trade. “India or any country, It would be a mistake to underline his personal relationship with Trump and fail to have many other inputs in the US foreign policy making process, including Congress.”
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