As the US supports humanitarian aid in Southeast Asia, its rival China may see an opportunity to expand its impact in regions that are leading billions of dollars in investment and aid, analysts say .
Just over three weeks after US President Donald Trump’s inauguration, Washington has frozen almost all foreign aid and moved to effectively eliminate the region’s longtime soft power source, the USAID I did.
USAID, the largest retired US foreign aid, spent $860 million last year in Southeast Asia alone, funding everything from HIV treatment to biodiversity conservation to strengthening local governance I did.
Many projects, run primarily through grants to local NGOs, face an uncertain future as the Trump administration brings the US back from the global stage as part of his “America First” agenda.
For Beijing, this situation provides an ideal opportunity to intervene, says Yanzhong Huang, Senior Fellow of Global Health at the Foreign Relations Council.
“The halt of health, education and humanitarian programs — a key pillar of US soft power — may create a vacuum that China can meet,” fans told Al Jazeera.
“This strategic retreat could strengthen Beijing’s influence across the region, particularly with current US aid recipients, including Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar and Cambodia.”
When the Trump administration generated headlines last week with a move to Gatt Yuseid, Beijing intervened for $4.4 million to make the news and funded a Cambodia demining project left at Lurch by Washington .
Henratana, head of the Cambodia Mines Action Centre, told the Khmer Times newspaper that Chinese aid would allow his organization to clear more than 3,400 hectares (8,400 acres) of land filled with landmines and immobilized weapons. He said it would be helpful.
The Chinese embassies in the US, Cambodia and Thailand did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.
Joshua Crulantic, Senior Fellow of Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council of Foreign Relations, USAID’s end mise has led to a decline in US influence in the region more generally, and China expands public diplomacy He said it will come as it does.
Southeast Asian leaders are concerned about “chaotic policy making” in the United States, Kurlantic told Al Jazeera.
“Beijing certainly portrays the United States as uncompassionate and unable to lead regionally or globally, and Beijing has made its way to aid and invest in many areas of developing countries. I hope to increase it,” Kurrantzick told Al Jazeera.
The future of many USAID programs in the region is unknown, but some analysts say China leaves a more political or ideological focus on other partners, such as the European Union, Australia, Japan and Asian Development. I think it’s a very likely one. Project is a Manila-based regional development bank.
“China’s existing international aid or international development program is very big, but it’s completely different to what USAID is doing. The latter is a diverse range of initiatives based on ideology, democracy, and LGBTQ. It appears that they are dedicating many resources to initiatives based on ideology for sex, inclusivity and climate change. A professor of economics at the International University of Business and Economics in Beijing told Al Jazeera.
“I am very skeptical of whether China will step into the void vacant by the US. We are talking about a variety of things here. In addition to that, I also think that the Chinese government will compete with Washington on this front. I don’t think I’m keen on anything,” Gong said.
China’s foreign aid is directed towards infrastructure, as laid out in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Other projects such as the Hospital Ship Peace Box Area provide medical assistance.
Almost all of China’s foreign aid to Southeast Asia takes the form of non-committee loans focused on energy and transportation, according to Grace Stanhope, a researcher at the Roy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Center.
Beijing’s infrastructure-rich approach is not always popular due to delays and “splitting” budgets in projects such as Malaysia’s East Coast Railway Link and Jakarta, but has a visible presence in the region It’s there. – Bandhan High Speed Railway Line in Indonesia.
Beijing has denied that some critics have called these and other projects a form of “debt tracking” diplomacy aimed at breeding dependence on China.
In a survey conducted last year by Singapore-based Iseas Yusof-Ishak Institute, 59.5% of respondents from 10 Southeast Asia countries chose China as the region’s most influential economic force.
However, more than half expressed distrust of China, with 45.5% fearing that China could threaten its country economically or military. Japan was considered the “most trustworthy” major power, followed by the US and the EU.
Though it is focusing on infrastructure, China is slowly trying to turn its model of support into more “soft” aids such as public health, agriculture and digitalization, according to the ASEAN study of the Iseas Yusof-Ishak Institute said Joanne Lin, a senior fellow at the center. Singapore.
“Of course, the scope of China’s aid will depend on China’s economic capabilities as it faces restrictions such as slowing growth and trade tensions with Washington.
Lin said Southeast Asian countries prefer a “diverse approach” to foreign aid and development aid that is not dependent on a single donor, whether in the US or China.
Despite its renowned presence in Southeast Asia, China has been reducing development support in the region in recent years.
China was the region’s top donor from 2015 to 2019, but has since slipped into fourth place, according to the Lowy Institute.
According to think tanks, funds have dried up similarly, falling from $1 billion in 2017 to $3 billion in 2022.
Steve Barra, an associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, said China could focus on issues overseas, including slowing economic growth and lower unemployment among young people. I’m facing problems at home.
“Domestic issues may help with restrictions [Chinese President Xi Jinping’s] Attention to international issues. The problem with belts and roads could limit the administration’s options regarding how to step into the space left by the US,” Bala told Al Jazeera.
Bethany Allen, program director for China Research and Analysis at the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy, expressed similar sentiments.
“China is already taking advantage of the first Trump era US withdrawal by deepening its economic, diplomatic and cultural influence in Southeast Asia. Allen is working with the Belt and Road Initiative, Confucius and Lankan Mekong. This is an initiative such as mechanisms. Cooperation between China and the Mekong region.
“However, China’s slowdown in economic growth means slowing down BRI, and as a result, the country’s soft power projects may not be more aggressive than in the past decade. Famous debt concerns and Pushback on China’s influence [in Malaysia and Indonesia] It also limits its appeal,” she said.
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