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IT is a dramatic few months in Germany. In November, a three-person party coalition led by Olaf Scholz collapsed, triggering an early election on February 23rd. After that, last month, the campaign was shocked by the decision of Friedrich Merz (CDU), the head of the opposition Conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), with support from right alternatives for Germany. (CDU)). For many, including hundreds of thousands of people who went to the streets in protest, Merz had violated a long-standing taboo about working with extremists.
German Election Tracker: Who is leading the vote?
But you won’t notice it from the polls. Apart from Die Linke (“The Left”), the little left-wing outfit (probably because of Mr. Merz’s stunt) enjoying the last minute surge, has all the parties sat within two points of their score a year ago. (see chart 1). Except for unprecedented voting errors, the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, Christian Social Union (CSU), will win a clear victory. That is, Merz should probably take over as Prime Minister if he sets up the coalition in April or May. With regard to AFD, a 20% forecast share will get back on track and double seat tally. However, it is blocked by the government by “firewalls” that other parties maintain.
But Merz can’t sleep easily. The interaction with German election rules, anti-AFD firewalls and voting fragmentation has led to a strange situation where small changes have great consequences for the formation of government. In most cases, parties must take part in the bandet tag by winning 5% of the national vote. The three are approaching that threshold. Free Democrats (FDP), a professional business outfit that was expelled from the government by Scholz in November. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is a left conservative pro-Russian costume that left Die Linke a year ago. And Dai Linke itself.
Therefore, the spawning bundle can have four and seven parties (see chart 2, using CDUs and CSUs as one). The more that number, the less seats are for large parties and the clever CDU/CSU federation options are. Merz looks at the outcome of the small party as closely as he himself.
Given the rise of Die Link, if none of them qualify, Mr Merz almost certainly could choose to choose Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) or Greens as a coalition partner. Our pre-election model shows that there is a 22% chance that you will find yourself in this happy situation. With five political parties in Congress, Merz’s only viable two-way coalition may be in the SPD. The host of six parties will greatly increase the chances of three parties being needed. And once all three Tiddlers make it, a two-party coalition becomes nearly impossible. A very complicated situation is that tactical votes to increase the likelihood of a particular outcome, which is often preferred by sophisticated voters, are like “play 3D chess” in voters’ Yougov’s Friderschmidt says.
What’s bothering for Merz is that Dai Linke’s surge and small ridges in FDP narrow his options. Our model also finds a 37% (and growth) chance to pair CDU/CSU with SPD (“Grand Union”) and Green to win a majority. Because AFD is out of range, Merz means that he needs two partners: either the so-called Kenya Union SPD and Green, or the FDP variation if he is qualified. (CDU/CSU also avoids Linke and BSW.) This can also apply when a two-party coalition has only a small majority.
“If that happens,” the CDU official sighs, “We’re dead.” An ideologically troubling three-party coalition could be a nightmare for hopes of restoring stability in German governance and restoring the predictability of German EU partners. Voters trembled with the prospect of slavery in another rule, despairing at the endless argument of the SPD-green-FDP “Traffic Lights” Union. The second concern is that the tripartite government can leave the AFD as the only meaningful opposition. A third is a “minority” of Bundestagg, which could block plans to ease Germany’s constitutional debt brakes.
The Germans greet the next government with the most skepticism. Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin, points out that this is the first election since the start of records in which all major candidates have negative approval ratings (Chart 3) reference). Only 25% of Germans say they are happy with Merz.
Having temporarily embraced the hope of an absolute majority, his party is now on track for the second most Western outcome in its history. His most likely (and German-like) partner, SPD certainly chokes up its worst score of all time. The stagnant economy, the waves of deadly attacks by asylum seekers and the chaos unleashed by the Trump administration have stoked anxiety. There is a fog of uncertainty surrounding the results of the election. But Merz’s lack of enjoying the honeymoon is not a deadly certificate. ■
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