The Canadian Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, won the fourth general election in a surprising comeback, partly driven by an unprecedented attack by President Donald Trump.
The liberals defeated Pierre Poiliervre’s main opposition Conservative Party on Monday after millions of people voted in the Snap election, where millions are dominated by big issues. Which candidates can better deal with Trump who took away Canadian annex and threatened them?
You can see more details about the results of Canada’s federal elections and what’s coming next.
Who won the election?
Shortly after 22:00 EDT (02:00 GMT on Wednesday), national broadcaster CBC predicted that the Liberals were directed at winning the appropriate number of seats in the House and forming the government.
The vote took place in the House of Representatives, a 343-person House. The party must win 172 seats (also known as the federal run) to form the government.
It’s too early to say whether the Liberal Party will surpass the majority mark.
How did each party work?
These are seat forecasts for major Canadian political parties, according to the CBC.
The Liberal Party has won or lead with 168 seats. The conservatives have either won or led with 144 seats. Brock Quebecois, led by Yves Francoa Blanchett, a French-speaking Quebec regional party, has won or led 23 seats. The left-leaning New Democrats (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, have won or lead with seven seats. The Green Party won one seat.
How do the results compare to the previous year?
In the final federal election held in 2021, the Liberal Party won 160 seats. In the 2019 federal election, the party won 157 seats. The conservatives won 119 seats in 2021 and 121 seats in 2019. Brockebekova won 32 seats in 2021 and 32 in 2019. The NDP won 25 seats in 2021 and 24 in 2019.
In the 2025 election, seating numbers went from 338 to 343.
What is the question that defined this election?
The Trump threat of tariffs and annexation was a key issue in the election, experts said.
Claiming Canada has not played a role in preventing irregular immigration and drug trafficking into the United States, Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on products from Canada and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy.
The US president also threatened the Canadian annex. “I think Canada is much better than being the 51st state,” Trump said in a February interview with Fox News.
“The most important factor in Canadian politics right now is not living in Canada. That’s Donald Trump,” Daniel Beland, a professor at McGill University in Montreal and director of the McGill Institute for Canadian Studies, told Al Jazeera in February.
Other issues include affordable prices for groceries and homes. Canada’s cost of living has intensified former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s tenure due to inflation during the Covid-19 pandemic. Trudeau has been prime minister since 2015 and resigned on March 9th this year after putting pressure on him to resign on March 9th this year.
According to Statistics Canada, in June 2022, inflation rate rose 8.1% from the previous year, marking the biggest annual change since 1983. Some Canadians have denounced Trudeau for a surge in housing prices on the agenda of promoting immigration. Last year, Poilierble made comments under Trudeau to attack “a massive, uncontrolled population growth that burdens the housing, healthcare and job markets.”
Inflation has since declined, currently at 2.3%. However, prices remain much higher than 2020.
Why did the liberals win?
Poilierbre’s conservatives took the lead throughout 2024, but liberals have made unexpected jumps in polls since February this year, thanks to Trump’s diatrib against Canada.
“This is the first time we’ve seen this in Canadian poll history, at least in this century. It’s very unprecedented to return from a 25-point deficit, especially for a government that has been in power for nearly a decade.”
At the time, Fournier said the growing popularity of liberals could be explained by Trudeau’s decision to step down, Trump’s threat and Polièbre’s decision to “discomfort” Canadians.
“Poirierble uses the same style, the same language and the same tactics as Trump,” Fournier said.
As Canadians faced a living crisis, Carney has pledged to abolish Trudeau’s unpopular policies, including the carbon pricing program.
On the campaign trail, Carney promised to deal with the crisis, counter tariffs, protect workers, and take Trump head on. “I’m ready and have managed the crisis for many years… We fight anti-enforcement and protect workers,” he said during an English debate on April 18th.
Trump was the “elephant in the room,” and he told Al Jazeera that Canadians needed a new candidate to deal with US President Boblichardson, a Canadian public relations analyst at Hammersmith Consulting.
“We need adults in our rooms. We need people with experience. We need people with financial experience. [Carney] There is Ton, the governor of the Bank of Canada and the governor of the Bank of England. He’s someone who can handle the situation Canada has to face over the next two or three years,” Richardson said.
Tali Ajadi, an assistant professor at the Department of Politics at McGill University, told Al Jazeera that Carney was “qualified and qualified enough to lead Canada during this uncertain time. Despite being a rookie politician, he was able to run a well-managed campaign.”
He explained that another major factor in the liberal victory was the collapse of the NDP. “A significant number of these votes were sent to the Liberal Party, which ultimately led them to victory.”
What were the prominent victory, loss, and surprises?
Poiriebre predicted he would lose his riding
The conservative leader is predicted to lose his seat in Carlton, Ontario to liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy. Poilievre was first selected in 2004.
NDP’s Jagmeet Singh loses his riding
The NDP is projected to win seven seats so far, giving it 6.3% of the vote share. This means that the parties have not reached the 12 seats needed by the parties to maintain the official party position required for parliamentary privileges such as research funding.
Jagmeet Singh, 46, announced on Monday that he would resign as the leader of the NDP. He admitted that his party wasn’t performing as much as he expected.
Shinn didn’t win the riding either. He admitted defeat in the Barnaby Central district in British Columbia.
“We were only defeated when we believe in people who say they can’t dream of a better Canada, a fairer Canada, or a more compassionate Canada,” Singh said.
“These results are very surprising and point to the competing priorities of Canadians. The key Canadian factions wanted change, but they were afraid of threats from the US,” said Ajadi of McGill University.
“This combined the centre and left-hand votes at the expense of the NDP and Green,” he added.
The election said it saw the strengthening of the Conservative Party on the right.
He said these results meant a “shy conservative” vote that strengthened the large number of seats for conservatives, but they didn’t win enough seats to win a minority in the Congress.
How did the party leader respond?
Kearney declared victory in a speech at a rally in Ottawa, Canada’s capital. He vowed to set up a strong front in the face of Trump’s threat.
“We built one country in harsh conditions despite our sometimes hostile neighbors. Yes, they are formed by Americans,” he said.
His speech also mentioned housing and energy improvements. “We are a master’s degree in our own home. We will build millions of housing units. We will become an energy superpower. We will provide a good career in skilled trade and one economy,” the Canadian leader said.
Accepting defeat, Poilierbre stated:
“My fellow conservatives, we have a lot to celebrate tonight. We’ve won over 20 seats. We got the biggest vote the party has received since 1988,” he said at Ottawa election night headquarters.
Poilliebre has pledged to work with liberals to combat the threat of Trump’s tariffs and annexation.
“Conservatives will work with the Prime Minister and all political parties with the common goal of defending Canada’s interests and obtaining new trade contracts that will place these tariffs behind us while protecting sovereignty,” he said.
What happens next?
After leading the Liberal Party to victory, Carney remains in his job as Prime Minister, forming a new government and cabinet. After Trudeau resigned from his position on March 9th, he was sworn as prime minister.
If the liberals win a majority, Carney will gather cabinets and work on budget plans before the House re-ralises on May 26th.
If liberals do not reach the majority, they must work with or more than another party to pass legislation and survive the unconfident votes. In the past, NDP emerged as a natural partner for liberals.
Conservatives are set to form official opposition in Congress.
McGill University’s Ajadi said Carney would likely be a minority, so he would need to reach out to other party leaders to make some kind of deal. “A vote of loss of trust in the House of Representatives would encourage another election,” Ajadi said.
“He can govern without a partner, but that means that the government always risks losing trust in the home.
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