New Delhi, India — Mooch Shah hadn’t slept for days and ran around his phone as he was obsessed with the latest news on the Spiral India-Pakistan conflict.
On Saturday, calls from her mother Tambella Bano got worse. “Please, come back [home]. Why are they separated when at least they can die together? ” She urged her young son studying at a university in the capital, New Delhi.
Shah, 23, said her complaint had crushed him. About an hour later, another news flash appeared on his phone. “US President Donald Trump says India and Pakistan have agreed to a “complete and immediate” ceasefire. “Sometimes later, South Asian rivals confirmed a ceasefire mediated by dozens of countries other than the US.
“That was very reassuring,” recalled Shah. Luckily he called the house. “The two countries agreed to peace. We will spend time soon. Don’t be afraid, mother, mother,” he told Bano, 48.
But just three hours after that call, the sense of security was blown away. A barrage of drones struck Srinagar, a major city in Kashmir, controlled by India, forcing another power outage. Similar reports of fire and drone sightings came from other cities in the region, including the border districts of Jammu, Anantnag, Rajasthan and Gujarat.
On the Pakistani side, several villages along the Control (LOC), the de facto border that divides Kashmir, have reported alleged ceasefire violations by Indian troops. As Pakistan and India denied each other’s allegations and reaffirmed their commitment to a ceasefire, questions were raised about whether a vulnerable agreement between nuclear-loaded neighbours would be held.
Bano cried, calling her son again.
“In an intermittent pause, I heard the sound of an explosion behind her when she broke down. The Jets were loud too,” Shah told Al Jazeera on Saturday night, sitting with a friend from Kasimili from a nearby New Delhi in New Delhi, 800 km (about 500 miles) from her home.
Eighteen days after gunmen killed 26 civilians in the Indian-controlled Kashmir resort town Pahargam, around 1.6 billion people on both sides of the border were caught up in fear of another Indian-Pakistan war over Kashmir.
An armed rebellion against New Delhi’s rule broke out on the Indian side in 1989. Since then, tens of thousands of people, most of them civilians, have been killed in conflict. New Delhi accusss Islamabad of supporting the rebellion, but Pakistan has denied the allegations and argued that it will only provide diplomatic support for Kashmiris’ struggle against an independent state or the possibility of a merger with Pakistan.
“Kasimiris gets stuck in the middle.”
Abbas is a Srinagar resident who requested that it be identified by its last name alone, and told Al Jazeera the big explosion his family heard on Saturday night was horrifying.
“Each explosion came out of nowhere, scaring and confusing us. [current conflict] I feel it’s different,” he said.
Abbas said he was awake to a crying toddler in the night explosion.
“It feels like a psychological war has unfolded on us. The fear isn’t just about explosions, it’s because of uncertainty and lack of transparency,” he said. “Kasimiris is stuck in the middle again and the shelter doesn’t run away either.”
However, the announcement of the ceasefire on Saturday evening has encountered joy among thousands of displaced people in several frontier districts on the Indian side, particularly since tensions over the border rose earlier this month.
Deepak Singh, a 40-year-old resident of Poonch, one of India-controlled Kashmir’s most affected border districts, said in a short phone interview that he is looking forward to his four families leaving the shelter and staying at home.
“We know life is hindered by border conflicts, but I hope to return to my home soon,” Singh told Al Jazeera.
However, that was before the explosion was reported from Srinagar. Just as both sides denounced each other by defeating the truce, Singh said he felt devastated.
“It’s not one more time,” he said. “How long will you sleep in this shelter? Will this ceasefire be held at all?”
Pradjot Verma, more than 1,000 km (620 miles) away, had similar feelings.
Bahma, a resident of Jodhpur, a border town in western Rajasthan, India, said their joy and relief are short-lived as he witnessed another round of blackouts and siren alerts on Saturday night, causing residents to be worried.
“The announcement of the ceasefire was cheering here,” the 26-year-old law student said as he sat in the dark in his rental room. “Indian defense system continues to intercept [Pakistan-origin missiles] And we hope they continue doing it. ”
“Back from the brink of war”
After a four-day military escalation in which Indian and Pakistani forces attacked each other’s military facilities, they agreed to a ceasefire. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said the two countries agreed to “open consultations on a wide range of issues in neutral places.”
However, geopolitical and military experts argue that ceasefires are fragile and less promised.
“The Indian government has already rebutted Rubio’s claim that India and Pakistan agree to launch consultations on a wide range of issues in a neutral place,” political scientist Sumantra Bose told Al Jazeera. “It’s something [Prime Minister Narendra] Given the one-sided commitment to religion regarding Kashmir and its rejection of diplomatic involvement with Pakistan, the Modi government cannot just do it. ”
Bose said the ceasefire was merely a “band-aid that smashes massive amounts of bleeding wounds threatening to turn into a breach, if not fatal.”
Although the escalation may have stopped due to intervention by foreign governments, “the problem is all the other parameters and vectors of India-Pakistan’s relationship, and the Kashmir conflict remains as before,” Bose said, adding “in an even more bitter and toxic form than before.”
However, South Asian politics expert Michael Kugelmann emphasized that the subcontinent has “returned from the brink of war.”
“This ceasefire will be to an end what, even some violations, have been a much larger regional security threat for decades,” he told Al Jazeera.
“This will be a very difficult ceasefire to support, and it was quickly put together at the moment tensions between India and Pakistan were rising. [and] This is also a ceasefire that appears to have been interpreted differently by India,” Kugelmann added. This refers to India’s historical position on Kashmir.
But for those living along the tense borders between South Asian rivals, careful optimism is their only reliance on.
“We value this ceasefire very much for us,” said a Kashmir political analyst who called for anonymity in fear of retaliation from Indian authorities.
“Whole wars, India, Pakistan, people on the border, Kashmiris and Punjavis have lost their lives for generations. I hope this madness stops here.”
Source link
