A source familiar with the discussion told Al Jazeera that Ukraine’s European allies are considering the possibility of using the air force to protect the country’s western sky from drone and missile attacks without the help of the US.
The plan, known as SkyShield, allowed NATO planes and pilots to be put into Ukrainian airspace for the first time, sending a strong political message to Russia that Europe is committed to defending Ukraine.
SkyShield is likely to be enforced as part of a ceasefire, especially if European ground forces are committed. However, it was designed by aviation experts in Ukraine and British to work under combat conditions.
“It’s been taken very seriously by the British France,” said Victoria Vudevichenko, a hybrid warfare expert at the Geopolistics Centre at Cambridge University. “My German and Italian colleagues know not only about Scandinavian colleagues, but also about it,” she said.
When it comes to implementing SkyShield under wartime conditions, she admits that “some of our partners are still fluctuating decisions.”
SkyShield is the brainchild of Price of Freedom, a Ukrainian think tank published in February and founded by Lesya Orobets. She came up with the idea last spring when the air defense crisis caused US Republican lawmakers to delay the passage of a $600 billion bill to send more aid to Ukraine.
In a call with the head of the Ukrainian Air Force, Orobec said, “We are in the middle of a missile crisis. We are not enough. [interceptors] Shoot the missile. ”
Skyshield is seeking the deployment of 120 European aircraft to protect Ukrainian civil infrastructure and export corridors along the Danube and Black Sea, liberating the Ukrainian Air Force and focusing on the conflicted eastern territories of the country.
“There is 200km of land [125 miles] At least between them,” Orobets said.
The European jets are based in nearby Poland and Romania, and fly mostly west of Dnipro, protecting Kiev on either side of the country’s north river.
Risky Strategy
Western commanders are wary of costs, casualties and military impacts.
Hourly flight costs, including training, parts and maintenance, range from $28,000 for the F-16 to about $45,000 for the fourth-generation Lafarejet, Helenic Air Force Colonel Constantino Suzikidis told Al Jazeera.
“We have to pay to have people there. A few shifts a day in all areas of expertise… that’s going to be tiring,” he said, referring to aircraft engineers and pilots.
“The proposal, on the other hand, downplays the effectiveness of air defense systems. Air defense systems are very effective against cruise missiles and have a much lower hourly operating cost than aircraft,” says Zikidis.
“It’s not the work of aircraft hunting down cruise missiles either. They can do that if they are given coordinates by air commands. They can’t come out on flight patrols and find them by chance. So you need a very thick radar array to cover a particular area.
European NATO members do not operate AWACS aerial radar according to Zikidis. This is an ideal tool for work, according to Zikidis, but Ukrainian pilots have already used air-to-air missiles to defeat Russian cruise missiles, suggesting that ground-based radar assets are there.
Europe offers patriots and SAMP-T long-range air defense systems and IRIS-T medium-range systems to Ukraine, but these are enough to protect large urban centers, Vdovychenko said. Russia is also stepping up its attacks. Ukrainian President Voldymeierzelensky said on May 4 that Russia fired around 1,200 long-range Kamikaze drones and 10 missiles in just a week.
These types of weapons are routinely directed towards private and industrial infrastructure rather than on the frontline, with Russian President Vladimir Putin increasing production. Last year, Arabga’s Russian factory produced 6,000 Shahed/Jeran long-range drones, said the head of the Ukrainian head to counter Andrie Kovalenko last month. He said Putin set the production with 8,000-10,000 drones this year.
The effect will be displayed. Famous attacks on Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv and Kyiv have killed dozens of people this year.
The second problem facing the European Air Force is the victims’ problem.
“If one European plane falls and a pilot is killed, it’s very difficult for the European government to explain it,” Zikidis said. “If a Greek pilot is killed and killed in Ukraine, it can overthrow the government,” he added.
“I don’t think there’s political will [for that]that’s partially what stops this,” Vdovychenko said.
However, Orobets places this risk in a broader context.
“We’re talking about catching cruise missiles and placing offensive drones. This is a very easy target for trained pilots,” she told Al Jazeera. “That’s why I think SkyShield is low in risk. [than enforcing a no-fly zone] Or the participation of European military forces, close to the forefront. ”
Strategic threats
Third, it has military meaning. Skyshield is part of liberating the Ukrainian Air Force to attack deeper within Russia, deploying the estimated 85 F-16 given.
That’s because Russia has stepped up its use of controlled air bombs (CABs) directed at the forefront this year.
Ukraine targeted an airfield where Russian jets took off and dropped taxis. It will also bring missile launch systems closer to the forefront and increase the range within Russia.
Taxi are Russia’s most effective weapons and are now able to use nuclear weapons to fly them to use them to threaten NATO.
The Biden administration had refused to allow the deployment of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMSS) in the 300 km (190 miles) range, as it believed Russia was dependent on the intelligence of the US.
It expresses the same view that Germany will send 500km (310 miles) of distance to Ukraine.
Similarly, Russia threatened to oppose the deployment of European troops into Ukraine.
“The military units in the western provinces of Ukrainian territory are … considered a legitimate target,” Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shuig told a summit of foreign ministers in BRICS province in Rio de Janeiro last month.
These threats were effective. The Biden administration was opposed to the idea of allowing drones and missiles to be shot down in Ukrainian airspaces heading towards Polish and Romanian airspaces, Obetz said.
The Biden administration “thought that if American pilots of American jets and western jets enter the airspace of Ukraine, the US or other countries would become lime fields,” she said.
The same applies to the concept of Europeans entering Ukrainian airspace.
“They were afraid that it would escalate to a level of conflict that the Russians couldn’t maintain. That was the only reason. There was no reason, ‘Oh, we can’t do that’.”
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