When Donald Trump first spoke to Congress on March 4th, he said, “Europe has sadly spent more money on buying Russian oil and gas than it has spent defending Ukraine.”
Trump was unknown for his statistical accuracy, but on this occasion he may be right.
A report released Thursday by energy think tank Ember estimates that European purchases of Russia’s gas reached 21.9 billion euros ($23.6 billion) last year, while 18.7 billion euros ($20.17 billion) of financial aid is aid to Ukraine.
The numbers did not include military aid.
The European Union estimates that since the start of the war, it has paid or committed $194 billion in military, fiscal and reconstruction aid to Ukraine.
Ember’s concerns are far from revealing its promised plan to phase out Russian gas completely by 2027, and the EU increased its imports of Russian gas by 18% last year.
“The EU must move away from expensive, volatile fossil gases to meet its own safety, economic and climate objectives starting with a clear pathway for Russia’s gas phase-out,” Ember writes.
Ukrainian presidential advisor VladySlav Vlasiuk told Kyiv’s EU ambassador in January that Ukraine was upset by the import of EU gas from Russia last year.
“Now is the time to cut off the flow of Petrodlers that will encourage Russian attacks,” he said.
Yiannis Bassias, a veteran and energy analyst in the hydrocarbon industry at Amphorenergy, told Al Jazeera:
“Russian gas [consumption in Europe] In 2024 it was around 45 billion cubic meters (BCM) and 57Bcm of gas in the US. ”
Russian energy sales to Europe decline
The broader context of this is that the EU has significantly reduced its energy imports from Russia since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
At its peak in 2019, Russian gas supply to Europe reached 179 BCM, the Oxford Energy Institute said in a new report on Wednesday.
In the year before Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe purchased 142 BCM of Russian gas.
“As a direct result of factors related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its volume fell to just 31bcm in 2024,” the OIES report said, “It could be 16-18 BCM in 2025.”
That’s because all Russian gas was sourced from a now-deprecated pipeline.
The unknown actor blasted out one of the Twin Node Stream I Pipeline and one of the Twin Node Stream II Pipelines in September 2022.
Another 33bcm of Russian gas could enter Europe via the Yamal pipeline running through Belarus and Poland, but Russia had stopped all gas flow by May 2022. This is likely planned a year ago, OIES says.
Additionally, importing 65bcm of Russian gas was possible through a pair of pipelines across Ukraine, but if the five-year shipping contract expired last December, Ukraine would not renew it and the pipeline was idled.
The remaining Russian gas pipeline is Turktre, which lands on the Eastern Track and proceeds through Bulgaria and Serbia to Hungary, but its capabilities are limited to 20bcm per year at the Bulgarian border.
“The big debate within the industry right now is whether a ceasefire or peace will see the return of Russia’s pipeline gas and the relaxation of sanctions on Russia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG)?”
The report suggests that pipeline operators must be bailed out from bankruptcy, not quick or easy as repairs and maintenance must be carried out, mutual sanctions have been revoked, and many contract claims must be made, hundreds of millions of dollars resolved through arbitration.
The EU similarly tried to sell Russian oil, but the results are mixed.
It was sanctioned in December of that year after importing 88.4 million tonnes of oil from Russia in 2022.
According to European statistics services, official EU imports of Russian oil fell 90% by the end of last year, which could be misleading as well, as there were also illegal imports.
The Kyiv School of Economics estimated that Russia made $189 billion last year through sales of crude oil and refined petroleum products, up $178 billion in 2023.
Good politics and good economics
Ember believes that EU choices will be bad economics.
If all announced investments in gas import terminals and pipelines occur, the EU estimates that by 2030 we will have a gas surplus of 131 BCM.
It adopts Europe to transform the grid and move to renewable energy, as Europe imports almost all of its hydrocarbons, then moves to renewable energy, subject to price volatility and uncertain supply.
Stern opposed Ember.
Asked if gas was a dead-end investment by 2030, he said, “No, and not most governments or the European Commission either. [think so]Otherwise, they won’t be spending money on new infrastructure yet. If you change the date to 2050, the answer may differ. ”
Others believed that EU choices were primarily about good politics rather than economics.
Vasias believed, “The big thing for the US and Russia is opening a sailing sailing into the Arctic Circle, where it conducts joint oil and gas exploration.”
They “we’ve been working together implicitly under Biden and it’s official now,” he said.
Energy analyst Miltiadis Aslanoglou said, “If people want to be tougher [energy imports]one might be. ”
“Europe has sent a message to Russia that they want to send: “We are not dependent on you.” It is extremely difficult to zero gas trade. [diplomatically]for better or worse, Russia is always there, so that’s because it’s always going to be a neighbor. Europe keeps the doors open,” Aslanoglow told Al Jazeera.
He suggested that Europe is keeping Russian gas giant Gazprom on life support.
“Gazprom certainly wasn’t a trillion dollar company five years ago, and no one even knows if it will exist in another five years,” Aslanoglow said. “Now, [it] I’m in a tragic financial strait. They can barely maintain a pipeline network within Russia, ages 50 or 60. ”
Realism vs. Value
Ukraine has different views.
Since last September, long-range drones within Russia suggest that analysis from Ukrainian Group Front Eligibility Insights suggests a policy shifting to one of the strike’s emergency export revenues from ammunition depots.
Ukraine attempted to kill Gazprom twice this year, sending attack drones and destroying the Raskaya compressor that suppresses gas to Europe in the remaining Russian pipeline.
Russia said it defeated nine drones near a compressor in Russia’s Krasnodar region on January 13, and three more on March 1.
Ukraine also attempted to cut off the Russian crude off-road terminal at Novorossk in the Black Sea on February 17th, and managed to damage it.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s priority to a ceasefire in the Black Sea this week was likely to aim to prevent further Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s major economic lifelines before it even happened.
Ukraine appears to be the only loser in a “good politics” scenario with Russia.
The International Energy Agency’s Global Energy Review on Monday found that the global decarbonisation efforts that Europe has played a leading role are beginning to show real results.
Global energy demand rose 2.2% last year, but emissions only increased by 0.8%, according to the IEA, renewable energy capacity increased by 700 GW. This is the 22nd annual record for new installed capacity.
According to the IEA, “growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continues to be isolated from global economic growth.”
Ember’s message was similar. Unlike Russia and the US, Europe is a poor hydrocarbon population.
According to Eurostat, the reliance on imported hydrocarbons meant that only 37% of the total energy needs were produced last year.
Ember believed that a paradigm shift to clean energy technology could not only save Ukraine from Russia, but also save Europe from climate change.
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