This week, South Sudan’s President Salva Kier ordered a series of high-level arrests and firing of political and military figures, alleging that tensions between him and his vice president Leek Machar (the main opposition figure) reached a boiling point.
Since Tuesday, South Sudanese soldiers have surrounded the Machar house in Juba, according to the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM/IO), a member of the Vice President’s Party. Kiel leads the Dominant Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).
The battle between the two exploded into a civil war that shook the young country beginning in 2013. Although calm has returned after the 2018 peace agreement, analysts said they are now under threat from new tensions between KIIR and Machar. That hostility follows an eruption of violence in the Northern Nile River state, which is believed to surpass rumors of planned forced disarmament by local groups.
South Sudan is the youngest country in Africa after leaving Sudan in 2011. Although it was rich in oil, the 11 million country is Africa’s second-poorest country, tackling humanitarian crises as a result of conflict and poverty.
Here’s what we know about the latest rise in tension:
What is the history of the conflict in South Sudan?
Shortly after its independence from Sudan in 2011, the country’s independence movement, led by SPLM, began to burst.
Political tensions among the SPLM factions came to the forefront and were exacerbated by ethnic differences as the factions lined up according to the tribes. The domination of the Dinka ethnic groups in this country has historically been a source of hostility with other groups.
In 2013, South Sudan descended into a full-scale war when Dinka’s Kiel fired Macher as vice president after escalated the line between them. Machar comes from South Sudan’s second largest Nuer ethnic group.
Kiel also fired the entire cabinet after some ministers expressed dissatisfaction with his leadership. Machar challenged the move, calling Kiel a dictator and establishing SPLM/IO, a rebellion movement that fought Kiel’s South Sudanese army.
How did the peace process unfold in 2018?
After five years of battles that drove out more than a million people and killed over 400,000 people, the two fighting factions agreed to discuss it with many other groups who joined both sides during the war. They ultimately signed the 2018 Reconstruction Agreement on the resolution of the South Sudan (R-ARCSS) conflict after several proposed peace frameworks failed.
The peace agreement was facilitated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) trade block. Two fighting factions were intended to unite the troops under a single unit, write new constitutions, prepare for general elections, organize census, and disarm all other armed groups. None of these reforms have been enacted, and violence from local or armed ethnic groups continues intermittently in parts of the country.
In May, several holdout groups were invited to the Tumaini Peace Initiative, the Tumaini Peace Initiative, led by Kenya. The parties have pledged to abandon the violence. However, Machar’s SPLM/IO opposed the process, saying it could affect some of the terms agreed in the 2018 peace agreement.
Why did tension rise again?
Tensions began to flare up again as the Sudanese army and Human Rights Watch (HRW) fought between groups identified as “armed youth militias” and erupted in Nile County, the southern Nile River on February 14th.
The HRW said rumors of other groups’ forced disarmament plans by government forces sparked concerns within local armed groups, but it remains unclear what exactly began the fight.
HRW said South Sudanese forces attacked the status of an unknown armed youth group, leading to a series of fatal conflicts since then. At least five civilians were killed as a result of the battle, according to Radio Tamazuji station. The peacekeeping forces for the UNMISS in South Sudan were also injured in the clash, the mission reported.
Unmiss, which first deployed in South Sudan in 2011, added that the unnamed War Party also used “heavy weapons,” and that the battles had also been reported in the western province of Exteria in the country’s southwestern state.
But at this week’s press conference, South Sudan’s Information Minister Michael McQuay Leues denounced the whites, a Noor armed group operating in the Upper Nile, who said it was the first attack in Nile County. Lueth said the group is working with SPLM/IO.
“We are calling on them to take control of their forces. …The government is in full control of the situation and we are in the process of dealing with the situation in Nasir,” he said.
Who was arrested or fired?
This week, Kiel also fired or ordered the arrest of several well-known politicians and Army members in connection with his agent.
On Tuesday, the Army arrested General Gabriel Duop Lamb, Machhar’s loyalty and vice-president of the army. On the same day, the army surrounded Machar’s house and essentially placed him under house arrest.
On Wednesday, Oil Minister Put Kang Chol, who formed an alliance with Machar, was arrested along with his bodyguard and members of his family.
Soldiers also stormed the office of Peacebuilding Minister Stephen Par Kuhl on Thursday and detained him. Reuters news agency reported that the minister was released early on Friday.
On Friday, Kiel’s office fired Monica Akol Abel, the Ambassador to South Sudan in Kenya.
In a statement Tuesday, Pal Mai Deng, a spokesman for the SPLM/IO Party, who serves as Minister of Water Resources, said Kiir’s recent actions “have eroded trust and trust” among the parties to the peace agreement.
“this [Kiir’s] The action violates an activated agreement on the resolution of the South Sudan conflict. …The law puts the entire agreement at risk,” Deng said.
Kenya’s President William Root, who leads the Tumeini peace process, confirmed the tensions had escalated in a statement Thursday, revealing that he had spoken to both Kiel and Machar.
“I pleaded the two leaders to engage in dialogue to nurture the country’s peace, even if the region was working towards stabilizing South Sudan under Igad’s strategic framework,” Root said. “I also told two leaders that local consultations are underway to determine the best path for the situation in South Sudan.”
In a joint statement, representatives of Igad state in Juba said they are wary of violence in Nasir County.
“We call on all parties and their affiliate groups to immediately stop hostility and exercise maximum restraint, underscoring the utmost importance of maintaining a permanent ceasefire and abide by R-ARCS regulations,” the statement read.
Similarly, embassies in Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK, the US and the European Union called for an end to the violence in the Upper Nile in a joint statement.
“[We] I lament hostilities in the Upper Nile state, including the substantial loss of life. He is also concerned about reports of detention of senior military and civilian officials. We are looking to join IGAD’s counterparts to immediately suspend hostility and to exercise maximum restraint by all parties and their affiliates,” the representative said.
Are the 2018 peace agreements at risk?
Among political observers there is fear that if the current political infighting continues, Upper Nile violence could be further widespread.
Analysts said the tensions in Juba are likely to continue to delay important tasks for the young country, such as permanent constitutional signing and holding elections. The vote was originally planned for December, but the Kiel government postponed them, citing fundraising challenges and “not ready.”
Democracy activist Mohammed Acott criticized both SPLM and SPLM/IO for failing to advance in the peace process due to “lack of political will.” That stance and recent arrests have threatened peace deals in 2018, described as a “clear violation” by the ruling party, Akot told Al Jazeera.
“The risk of new conflict remains and threatens the stability of the country, especially if the dispute is not resolved in Nasir County, and if the parties do not commit to fully implementing all security arrangements, the risk of new conflict remains and poses a threat to the stability of the country. A genuine political commitment is currently necessary to save the peace process,” he said.
Meanwhile, the World Food Programme (WFP) issued a report this week that it faces a $422 million shortfall in funds to address the country’s humanitarian crisis caused by years of conflict, climate change and general economic deprivation.
Additionally, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) said last week that work to provide food to malnourished children could cease after the US cut foreign aid around the world.
The IRC said it has supported 1.5 million people across the country since starting work in Sudan in 1989. The war in neighbouring Sudan has pushed over a million refugees across the border and exacerbated conditions.
According to WFP, more than 7.6 million people face food shortages across the country, but one in four children is malnourished.
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