SINGAPORE – Of the many military officials darting across the lobby of Singapore’s Shangri-La Hotel this weekend, there was one major absence.
Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun skipped the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier security forum, and Beijing sent a delegation of lower delegates instead.
Since 2019, China has not sent a defense minister to a high-level dialogue on regional defense, except in cases where events were cancelled in 2020 and 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Beijing’s decision came at a time when it raised eyebrows in Singapore and tensions between China and the US. They are the two largest superpowers in the world.
Don’s absence meant there was no face-to-face meeting with his US Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegses.
“It must be clear that Beijing is reliant on the possibility of using military force to change the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific,” Hegses told the Singapore delegation.
Hegzes refers to regular Chinese military training and increasingly frequent skirmishes in the South China Sea, saying Beijing is actively harassing his neighbors.
“There’s no reason to pour sugar on it. The threat poses by China is real and could be imminent,” Heggs said.
He also points to Germany, pointing to China’s increasing military assertion as a reason for Asian countries to boost defence spending. Germany has pledged to spend 5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense.
“It makes no sense for European countries to do that, but important Asian allies will spend less on defense in the face of even more frightening threats,” Hegses said.
The defense chief also tried to reassure Asian allies that Washington had committed to Asia-Pacific security despite tensions in recent months as President Donald Trump targeted close allies with trade tariffs.
“The US is proud to be back in the Indo-Pacific and we are here to stay,” he said, opening his speech.
Some analysts quickly fulfilled the seriousness of Hegses’ warnings about China.
“With the exception of a very small number of countries, many of this part of the world see China as an imminent threat and will raise them. [defence] said Dylan Law, assistant professor of Public Policy and Global Affairs Program at Nanyang University of Technology in Singapore.
China lost its lips perfectly in the absence of the defence chief.
For the past few years, Shangri-La’s dialogue has provided an unusual platform for meetings between Chinese and US authorities in a more informal environment the summit can offer.
The structure of the schedule allowed the military president of Beijing to respond directly to keynote speeches from the US Secretary of Defense and present the story to other members of the Asia-Pacific region.
Beijing remained tense due to the absence of Defense Minister Dong from the forum, burning a blank of information filled by speculation.
One theory is that China does not want to send famous representatives to events at such a sensitive period when Beijing navigates the tariff war with the Trump administration.
Law of Nanyang University of Technology in Singapore said:
“So the question is, why take risks when US-China relations are at a very sensitive point at the moment,” Law told Al Jazeera.
The Shangri-La Dialogue weekend has always been not the easiest opportunity for the Chinese Minister of Defense. In recent years, they have faced difficult questions from counterparts in other countries and are dissatisfied with Beijing’s increasing assertion in the Asia-Pacific region.
Law said this could be another factor in Don’s lack of attention.
“The Chinese Defense Minister coming to Singapore will be putting himself and the country at political risk,” he said. “Themes like the South China Sea and perhaps Taiwan will emerge, making China a convenient target,” added Law.
Dong was appointed Chinese Minister of Defense in late 2023 after his predecessor, Li Shangfu, was removed from the inauguration.
Less than a year into his job, there was speculation surrounding Dong’s new position following media reports that he was under investigation as part of a broader investigation into Chinese military corruption. Beijing denied the report, and the minister continued to maintain his public profile despite the allegations.
There was also intense scrutiny of Chinese troops following President Xi Jinping’s report of the obvious purge of top-level officials.
One of Beijing’s most senior generals, his Wydong disappeared from a famous political meeting in April, adding to rumors surrounding the possibility of a restructuring of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Ian Chung, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Centre for China Studies, said such speculation could be a factor in Dong’s no-show in Singapore.
“Due to domestic turmoil with China’s senior forces, they probably don’t want it, or Pra itself feels that they are not in a position to send someone senior,” Chong told Al Jazeera.
Chinese military spokesman Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, who announced Dong’s absence at a press conference before the summit, argued that communication channels were still open between defense officials in Washington and Beijing.
“China has made US-China military relations extremely important and is open to communication at various levels,” Zhang said.
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