For the first time in nine years, South Korea’s fertility rate rose, reversing the long-term trend, which refused to record lows.
The country’s birth rate has been falling for the eighth consecutive year, making it the sole member of the Economic Co-operation and Development Organization (OECD) at a rate below 1.
The birth numbers indicate the number of children born to each woman in the lifetime population. Experts say a fertility rate of 2.1 is needed to maintain the population at the current level.
Even neighboring Japan, which has long been considered to have an age population, has a higher fertility rate than South Korea’s.
So does the latest rise in South Korea’s fertility rate mean a change in the country’s future, or is it too early to celebrate?
What happened to the birth rate in Korea?
According to the National Statistics Bureau of Korea’s Statistics Bureau, the birth rate (often called the birth rate) rose to 0.75 in 2024 after hitting his historic lows the previous year.
After posting a 1.24 percentage in 2015, the eighth consecutive year of decline in the fertility rate led South Korea to achieve the lowest birth rate in the world. However, the rates vary across the country, with the birth rate being particularly low, at just 0.58%, with over 18% of the country’s population living in the capital, Seoul.
The country’s latest national demographic report, released last Wednesday, showed that there were over 240,000 registered births nationwide last year.
This is a little higher than the previous year’s 235,000 births, but markedly below the 600,000-700,000 births recorded annually in the 1990s. Additionally, 120,000 more people died last year than they were born.
An astonishing increase in the number of marriages in Korea may be the cause of a new rise in fertility rates, experts say. The biggest spike since the record began in 1970 was a 14.9% increase in marriages in 2024 compared to the previous year.
What impact did the decline in fertility rate have on the Korean population?
The national population remains essentially flat for several years. After a peak of 51.83 in 2020, it exceeded just 51.2% last year, with a 1.7% increase in deaths compared to the previous year.
People in their 50s make up the majority of the 17% population, while children under the age of 10 still account for the lowest percentage at 6.13%.
Last year, both the number of children up to age 14 and the number of working-age population (ages 15-64) fell. And South Korea is now considered an extra-age society as people over 65 have increased by 5.41% as people over the age of 65 account for more than 20% of the current population.
Why do more Koreans get married?
South Korean officials said this week in a news briefing that “increasing trends in marriage following the Covid-19 pandemic,” changes in demographics and changes in social behavior explain the rise.
“There was a change in social values and there was a more positive view on marriage and childbirth,” Park Hyun-joon, an employee of the Korean Statistics Bureau, said at a briefing.
“It’s difficult to measure how much each factor contributed to an increase in new births, but they themselves influenced each other.”
However, the main driver of rising birth and marriage rates appears to be an increase in the number of people in their early 30s.
The group, consisting of people born between 1991 and 1995, consists of second-generation baby boomers born between 1964 and 1974, is considered the largest single generation in the country, accounting for 18.6% of the total population.
Why has the birth rate in Korea been decreasing in recent years?
According to Seoul city officials, high cost of living, imbalance between work and life, and the ability to afford quality childcare are some of the main reasons people say they delay or reject the idea of marriage and raise children.
In countries where youth unemployment rates have deteriorated sharply in recent years, the number of economically active young people has also steadily declined. This has continued over the past few decades.
There is a very high level of education among young people, but more companies are demanding a collection of “specs” or qualifications, certificates and other achievements to enhance their competitiveness.
Even when employed, the country has one of the longest working weeks among OECD members, with an average of nearly 36 hours a week. As a result, experts say achieving a satisfactory work-life balance has become difficult.
What steps did the government take to address this?
The South Korean government has spent 360 trillion won ($270 billion) on programs such as child care subsidies since 2006, and since 2022 parents have been given 2 million won ($1,510) cash payments at the birth of their children. Starting this year, Seoul is also planning to give newlyweds 1 million won ($685) to registered marriages in the capital.
Starting this year, new regulations will allow fathers to take 20 days of paid parental leave.
After declaring the country’s emergency martial law, before engaging in December, President Yoon Sook Yeol declared plans to create a new ministry dedicated to tackling the “national statistics crisis” and low birth rates. Measures include increasing parental leave allowances, implementing flexible working hours, extending age limits to shortening working hours for young children, and providing subsidies to employers who hire temporary exchanges of employees on parental leave.
Yoon also pledged to increase childcare support and expand after-school programs in primary schools to reduce the burden on working parents.
South Korea has also attempted a program aimed at reviving the community with declining birth rates. In Paongtaek, a few hours drive south of Seoul, for example, a job creation scheme that includes newly built apartments in the city and a new Samsung Electronics Campus brings more families in the area. It is currently one of two cities with a population of over 300,000 and maintains one or more birth rates.
In 2022, Seoul launched a 6.7 trillion won ($4.588 billion) “birth support project” to further promote marriage and childbirth in the capital. This includes reducing the cost of living for newlyweds by providing welfare housing and increasing the number of daycare centers.
The government also relied on more imaginative schemes. For example, Seoul officials organize gatherings for singles in the city who find it difficult to find time or space to meet other singles.
On past Valentine’s Day, the Seoul Metropolitan Government held an event called “Romance, Art Night” that combined 50 men and 50 women at venues around the city. The event was completed with dinner, champagne, “love-themed bingo,” and an exercise in which 100 participants stared in each other’s eyes for 10 seconds. The event ended with high notes as half of the participants said they had found a partner after attracting nearly 2,400 people.
Will the birth rate continue to rise?
Probably not. Choe Eun-ju, an associate professor of sociology at Chonbuk National University, downplayed the importance of the recent increase in the country’s birth rate.
In addition to the percentage well below the 2.1 children needed to maintain the country’s population at the current level, still at 0.75, she believes the birth rate will decline again in the near future.
“Births in the 1990s ranged from about 600,000 to 700,000 births per year, but that number just shrunk when we entered the 2000s,” Cho told Al Jazeera.
The country’s birth rate dropped to 300,000 people per year in 2017, and in 2020 it reached 200,000 people.
“So, even if the birth rate is maintained to some extent, births will inevitably be significantly reduced,” Cho said. “We need to be prepared for the various social changes and problems that arise as this rapid decline in population.”
As an example, Cho emphasized that the government needs to prepare for national pension demands in countries that have already reached the level of extra-age social.
Governments should also focus on how the education system must adapt to a declining need for schools and teachers in the country, and how local policies must be changed in rural areas facing the risk of extinction.
According to the latest forecasts from the Korea Bureau of Statistics, South Korea’s population has been around the 50 million mark for some time, but is expected to shrink to 3,622 million by 2072.
Cho also said that while Korean society has not changed its views on marriage and childbirth, non-marriage partnerships have been a major part of western society since the second half of the 20th century.
“But the most important issue is the fact that there is a very low percentage of people in Korean society who can plan or imagine their lives in a stable way,” Cho said. “The government told them, so people don’t get married or get pregnant.”
Instead, she said she must investigate why society doesn’t want to marry or raise children in the first place.
“How can we enable younger generations to imagine their future, enjoy it, and plan it?”
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